The forecasts and projections for the 2020 citizenship election in Hamburg provide two clear winners. The CDU is historically weak, the FDP and AfD have to tremble.
- On February 23, the general election was held in Hamburg .
- In the polls and forecasts , the SPD and the Greens were almost on a par.
- All information can be found below in the projections and forecasts or on the evening of the election in our live ticker for the Hamburg election.
+++ Here you will find all results, profits and losses in graphics +++
Hamburg election 2020: preliminary result of the preliminary count
Update of February 23, 2020, 11:38 p.m .: This is the preliminary result of the preliminary counting for the general election in Hamburg : The SPD comes to 39 percent , the CDU to 11.2 , the Greens to 24.2 , the Left to 9.1 , the FDP to 5.0 and the AfD to 5.3 . The FDP and AfD would reach the five percent hurdle.
Update of February 23, 2020, 11:00 p.m .: After the Hamburg election, the AfD is now beginning to see that it could barely make it back. According to Infratest dimap, the party now stands at 5.3 percent . The FDP , however, still has to tremble whether it is enough for the five percent hurdle .
Update of February 23, 2020, 8:50 p.m .: According to a current ARD projection after the Hamburg election , the AfD could move into the citizenship . The party got 5.1 percent of the vote on Sunday evening, the FDP remained at 5.0.
Hamburg election 2020: First projections - two clear winners, FDP and AfD tremble
Update of February 23, 2020, 7.15 p.m .: This is the first projection for the civic election in Hamburg by Infratest dimap (ARD): The SPD comes to 37.6 percent , the CDU to 11.4 percent , the Greens to 25.4 Percent , the left to 9.1 percent , the FDP to 5.0 percent and the AfD to 4.7 percent .
According to the research group elections on behalf of the ZDF, the following extrapolation results: The SPD comes to 37.6 percent , the CDU to 11.3 , the Greens to 25.4 , the Left to 9.5 , the FDP to 5.0 and the AfD to 4.7 .
Extrapolation for the Hamburg election 2020: the current figures (in percent)
extrapolation | time of day | SPD | CDU | green | left | FDP | AFD | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infratest dimap (ARD) | 10:57 p.m. | 39.1 | 11.2 | 24.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
Infratest dimap (ARD) | 10.45 p.m. | 39.1 | 11.2 | 24.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
Infratest dimap (ARD) | 9.43 p.m. | 39.1 | 11.2 | 24.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.2 |
Research group elections (ZDF) | 9:33 p.m. | 39.2 | 11.2 | 24.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.2 |
Research group elections (ZDF) | 8:53 p.m. | 38.8 | 11.1 | 24.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.7 |
Infratest dimap (ARD) | 8.47 p.m. | 38.9 | 11.2 | 24.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 6.3 |
Research group elections (ZDF) | 8.20pm | 38.4 | 11.2 | 24.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 6.1 |
Infratest dimap (ARD) | 7:57 p.m. | 38.6 | 11.2 | 24.8 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 6.4 |
Research group elections (ZDF) | 7:21 p.m. | 37.8 | 11.3 | 25.4 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 6.3 |
Infratest dimap (ARD) | 7.10 p.m. | 37.6 | 11.4 | 25.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 6.8 |
Hamburg election 2020: forecast - FDP and AfD have to tremble
Update from February 23, 2020, 6:00 p.m .: The current forecast for the citizenship election in Hamburg according to Infratest dimap (ARD): The SPD comes to 37.5 percent , the CDU to 11.5 percent , the Greens to 25.5 percent Left to 9.0 percent , the FDP to 5.0 percent and the AfD to 4.7 percent .
The forecast of the ZDF (research group elections) looks as follows: The SPD stands at 38.0 percent , the CDU at 11.0 percent , the Greens at 25.5 percent , the left at 9.5 percent , the FDP at 5 , 0 percent and the AfD at 4.8 percent .
Compared to the last state election in Hamburg, the SPD loses around eight percent , the CDU around four percent , the FDP around two percent and the AfD around one percent . The Greens , on the other hand, gain around 13 percent , the left 0.5 percent .
Forecast for the Hamburg election 2020: the current figures (in percent)
forecast | time of day | SPD | CDU | green | left | FDP | AFD | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infratest dimap (ARD) | 6 p.m. | 37.5 | 11.5 | 25.5 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 6.8 |
Research group elections (ZDF) | 6 p.m. | 38.0 | 11.0 | 25.5 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 6.2 |
We have summarized reactions and votes for the citizenship election in Hamburg 2020 in a separate article. The reaction in the ARD studio when the first forecast for the Hamburg election * was announced surprised: suddenly there was a loud cheer. You can read a current comment on Merkur.de * .
Update of February 23, 2020, 4.35 p.m .: As the forecasts before the Hamburg election have shown, the SPD is probably heading for an election victory. The election evening for the FDP could be dramatic if the party ranks as close to the five percent hurdle as previously assumed. The Greens are probably heading for renewed government participation. However, until the polling stations close, it remains uncertain whether the forecasts for Hamburg paint a clear picture. The influence of the government crisis in Thuringia remains uncertain; the CDU, FDP and AfD can have drastic effects.
Hamburg election 2020: latest polls - do greens have a chance?
Update from February 22, 2020: Even in the last days before the Hamburg election, the forecasts showed a trend that has been evident for some time. Immediately before the 2020 elections, the SPD is clearly in the lead, according to the polls. The role of a junior partner is emerging again for the Greens. The rapprochement with the SPD, which seemed possible only weeks ago, was no longer recognizable.
Below you will find the poll results from Hamburg over time and compared to the previous election in 2015.
Original message: Hamburg election 2020: Polls show red-green in front
Hamburg - The 2020 electoral election will take place in Hamburg on February 23. The electorate decides on the state parliament in the city-state. SPD and the Greens could be the big election winners. This is shown by the polls in the weeks before the election.
Citizenship election 2020 in Hamburg: SPD and Greens in polls up front
In the week before the ballot, the polls independently see the SPD in the front : With up to 39 percent, the Social Democrats even approach their results from the year remotely in polls from Infratest dimap (ARD) and the Research Group Elections (ZDF) 2015. The Greens are in a stable second place with 23 to 25 percent, after they were even seen in January with the Social Democrats.
According to these figures, it should easily suffice for a red-green coalition. However, a green candidate as the first mayor has become less likely. A survey by the University of Hamburg showed figures that differed significantly from these results. However, the data has been collected since the turn of the year and therefore shows a more long-term trend.
Predictions for the Hamburg election: Some parties still have to tremble
The situation for the FDP is precarious. Shortly after the Prime Minister election of Thuringia, the Liberals may stumble towards falling below the five percent mark. Left and AfD, on the other hand, according to the polls are heading for re-entry into citizenship. The CDU should not be very happy with its 13 to 14 percent - however, the party also comes from an already weak 15.9 percent in the 2015 elections.
In a January 2020 survey by Infratest dimap , the SPD and the Greens were still on par with around 29 percent. At that time, the CDU was the third strongest with around 15 percent. The left came fourth with a good eight percent. AfD and the FDP broke the five percent hurdle in the survey.
Forecasts for the 2020 elections in Hamburg give SPD a head start
The result from the beginning of February corresponds more to the long-term trend in the election forecasts . The Greens were mostly led a few percentage points behind the SPD. The CDU fluctuated in the forecasts between 13 and 17 percent. A state government without the participation of the SPD or the Greens is excluded as long as the favor of voters does not shift significantly.
Either way: According to the demos, the SPD has the best chance of being the first mayor of Hamburg. Peter Tschentscher starts to defend his office. Should the Greens succeed in the surprise, Katharina Fegebank could lead a coalition in the Hanseatic city in the future. Other candidates in the state election in Hamburg will hardly be able to reach for the office.
Latest polls for the 2020 elections in Hamburg (all percentages)
institute | date | SPD | CDU | green | left | FDP | AFD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research group elections (ZDF) | 02/20/2020 | 39 | 12 | 24 | 8.5 | 5 | 6 |
University of Hamburg | 02/19/2020 | 34 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
INSA (picture) | 02/18/2020 | 38 | 13 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
Research group elections (ZDF) | 02/14/2020 | 37 | 13 | 25 | 8th | 4.5 | 7 |
Infratest dimap (NDR) | 02/13/2020 | 38 | 14 | 23 | 8th | 5 | 6 |
Trend Research Hamburg (Radio Hamburg) | 02/10/2020 | 33 | 14 | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
Infratest dimap (NDR) | 02/06/2020 | 34 | 14 | 27 | 8th | 5 | 7 |
Infratest dimap (NDR) | 01/23/2020 | 32 | 16 | 27 | 8th | 6 | 7 |
Infratest dimap (NDR) | 01/09/2020 | 29 | 15 | 29 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
Trend Research Hamburg (Radio Hamburg) | 01/09/2020 | 32 | 13 | 23 | 13 | 8th | 8th |
Forsa (Hamburger Abendblatt) | 01/06/2020 | 29 | 16 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
Infratest dimap (NDR) | 12/17/2019 | 28 | 17 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8th |
Trend Research Hamburg (Radio Hamburg) | 11/18/2019 | 32 | 17 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 8th |
Election result of the 2015 general election | 02/15/2015 | 45.6 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 |
Check out this post on Instagram
If you don't already know which topics are burning in Hamburg, you should at least go through the Wahl-O-Maten and check your party political image for topicality - at least I was surprised! And always remember: 'Not Voting Is Not Neutral!' ✊ - www.11.wahl-o-mat.de #wahlomat # Wahlomat2020 #wahlhamburg # Wahlhamburg2020 #notvotingisnotanoption #notvotingisnotneutral #heuteinhamburg # Wahlkampf # bürgerschaftswahl # bürgerschaftswahl2020 #parte # surprise #fckafd #hamburg #refiefiewelde
A post shared by Stephanie König (@veganleak) on Jan 26, 2020 at 10:37 am PST
2020 citizenship election: from the first projection to the result
The election notifications were sent out by early February. This includes two sample ballots so that voters can familiarize themselves with the correct filling in of the ballots. Alternatively, you can request postal voting.
If you still need a decision-making aid for the state election in Hamburg, you can ask the Wahl-O-Mat Hamburg. For more information, study the election programs. You can follow all developments on election evening in our live ticker. However, the final results will be available much later.
* Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network.
