Election in Hamburg: SPD and Greens can continue to rule. The FDP slips below 5 percent.
- Hamburg elects a new citizenship
- SPD and Green election winner
- AfD probably in citizenship
- FDP does not make it into citizenship
Tuesday, February 25th, 2020, 6:00 a.m .: FDP leader Christian Lindner comments on Facebook on the election result of his party. The result affected, furthermore "the irritation after Erfurt", in which he himself had played a controversial role, "burdened the election campaign".
"We are now reassuring ourselves of our political compass: we are a center party - in terms of our values, our positions and the people we represent," continues Lindner.
+++ 20.13 PM: The FDP failed in the election for Hamburg citizenship at the five percent hurdle. However, her top candidate Anna von Treuenfels secured a mandate for her constituency Blankenese after the results published on Monday by the state election office. Throughout Hamburg, the Liberals won 4.9 percent of the vote .
+++ 11.40 clock: The FDP could miss the re-entry into the citizenship after becoming known a counting error in the election in Hamburg.
Due to a mix-up in the district of Langenhorn, the 22.4 percent of the Greens were inadvertently allocated to the Liberals, as the responsible district election manager Tom Oelrichs told the press on Monday. The FDP was only a few votes above the five percent hurdle across Hamburg on Sunday evening.
Monday, February 24th, 2020, 6 a.m .: A possible mix-up in the voting in the electoral district of Hamburg-Langenhorn questions the short re-entry of the FDP into the citizens. In a polling station, the Liberals came to 22.4 percent after the simplified count on Sunday evening, the Greens, however, only 5.1 percent. Nationwide, the result was reversed. "This is definitely noticeable," said state election manager Oliver Rudolf. "I have already passed on the hint that there is an abnormality."
If there had been a mix-up of the assignment, the FDP would have 423 fewer votes than previously assumed. Since the party as a whole is only 121 votes above the five percent hurdle according to the preliminary figures, this could lead to it missing the entry into the city parliament. All votes will be counted again this Monday, so that an error can then be determined.
+++ 22:56: The red-green coalition in Hamburg can continue. SPD and Greens have won a clear election in Hamburg. Mayor Peter Tschentscher's SPD landed well ahead of the green government partner. The CDU slipped to its nationwide worst state election result in almost 70 years. The AfD will remain very scarce in the citizenship, the FDP must continue to tremble. Ultimate clarity, however, should not be until Monday evening (February 24, 2020).
Hamburg: Red-Green coalition most likely
The most likely form of government is to continue the red-green coalition that has been in place since 2015. Katharina Fegebank (Greens) spoke of a clear electoral mandate to continue red-green. The Greens had long hoped to become the strongest force themselves and to make Fegebank the head of government. In addition to red-green, a coalition of the SPD and CDU would also be mathematically possible, but politically this is unlikely. "We are ready for talks," said top CDU candidate Marcus Weinberg.
+++ 10.46 p.m .: The latest results of the ARD extrapolation for the Hamburg state election (10.45 p.m.):
- SPD: 39.1 percent
- Greens: 24.1 percent
- CDU: 11.2 percent
- Left: 9.1 percent
- AfD: 5.3 percent
- FDP: 5.0 percent
- Others: 6.2 percent
+++ 9:53 pm: ARD election expert Jörg Schönenborn said in the daily topics: "The AfD has most likely made it again, the FDP will have to continue to tremble."
+++ 9:47 pm: The ARD also estimates the ARD at 5.2 percent, the FDP at 5.0 percent.
+++ 9:46 p.m .: There is another projection: According to the ZDF calculation (9:45 p.m.), the AfD is 5.2 percent. According to the Hamburg State Election Office, 92 percent of the votes have now been counted. The FDP also makes it into the state parliament. According to the projection, it is five percent.
Hamburg: AfD and FDP according to projections over five percent hurdle
+++ 20.58 PM: The ZDF also sees the AfD at five percent.
+++ 20.54 PM: There is a new projection of the ARD. The latest ARD figures now see the alternative for Germany at over five percent (5.1 percent). This would put the party back in the citizenship. The FDP remains at five percent. But nothing is final yet, a lot can change in the evening.
+++ 20.23 PM: The great tremor continues. Does the AfD make it into citizenship or not? The ARD and ZDF currently see the AfD at 4.9 percent. The FDP stands at five percent.
Hamburg: "Nazis out" calls to red-green
+++ 20.00 clock: The AfD may no longer be represented in the new citizenship. With "Nazis out" calls SPD and Greens at their election parties cheered the AfD defeat almost more than their own results.
Three days after the right-wing terror in Hanau and two and a half weeks after the AfD's chaos in Thuringia, the losses had hinted. "AfD media agitation and hatred against the AfD" complained the Hamburg AfD top candidate Dirk Nockemann before the election. The poor performance is the "result of a maximum exclusion campaign," he said on election evening.
Hamburg: After the Thuringian crisis, the AfD went downhill
Until the scandal in the prime ministerial election in Erfurt, the AfD was consistently at seven to eight percent, "then it went down to Thuringia". But above all, the Hanau attack on Thursday put the AfD campaigners on the defensive in Hamburg.
+++ 19.40 clock: The behavior of the FDP in Thuringia could have been decisive for the poor performance of the party. The election of the FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich, supported by the AfD and CDU, as the Thuringian prime minister had put the election campaigners in Hamburg in a “very difficult situation,” said Christian Lindner on ZDF. The voters are "rightly irritated," he conceded. "Confidence still has to grow."
Thuringia influenced the election in Hamburg
The CDU's losses may also be due to the events in Erfurt and the subsequent lack of leadership in the party. CDU General Secretary Paul Ziemiak said in Berlin: "The events in and around Thuringia did not help that the CDU in Hamburg was able to refer to their concepts for Hamburg."
+++ 19:20: The first projection largely confirms the first forecast. Accordingly, the SPD comes to 37.6, the CDU to historically poor 11.4 percent, the Greens double their result to 25.4, the left improves to 9.5 percent and the FDP has to tremble with currently 5.0 percent. At 4.7, the AfD would no longer be represented in the Hamburg citizenship.
+++ 7:00 p.m .: At the election parties of the Greens and SPD, those present chant “Nazis out” - probably with a view to the currently forecast 4.7 percent of the AfD. They would no longer be represented in the Hamburg citizenship.
+++ 18.40 clock: Saarland Prime Minister Tobias Hans (CDU) sees federal political reasons for the bad result of his party in the election in Hamburg. "The picture we give is a picture of lack of leadership," said Hans in the ARD. He demanded that the CDU top bodies on Monday discuss a timetable for changing party chairmanship and naming the candidate for chancellor.
The prime minister asked those interested in the CDU party chairmanship to explain "whether they are taking up or not". In addition, the federal CDU must clarify with the CDU in Thuringia how Thuringia is coming out of the current "state crisis".
The Hamburg CDU top candidate Marcus Weinberg also referred to the bad political environment for his party. "It was a political storm for us," he said in the evening in Hamburg. He described the result for the CDU as "bad".
+++ 6.30pm: AfD top candidate Dirk Nockemann spoke after the possible resignation of his party from the Hamburg citizenship of "result of a maximum exclusion campaign". The AfD was constantly around 7 percent, but then it went down to Thuringia, said Nockemann in the NDR. However, he emphasized that it was only a forecast. He was still confident.
Meanwhile, see SPD General Secretary Lars Klingbeil the SPD election victory as a great success: "What you can see: Where the SPD is strong, where it is closed, where it clearly focuses on the issues, the SPD can be successful. And that's what we're working on in the federal government. ”The clear stance against the right also helped that the SPD was recognizable.
SPD and Greens ahead in forecast in Hamburg
+++ 6.15 p.m .: According to the forecast, the SPD is the strongest force against the federal trend in Hamburg, despite minus 8.1 percentage points. The Greens can more than double their 2015 result, so it should amount to red-green governing. The left is accordingly up 0.5 percentage points to 9.5. With 11.5 percent, the Christian Democrats achieved their historically worst result in the Hanseatic city (-4.4).
The AfD could be the loser in the election, which at 4.7 percent (-1.4) would no longer be represented in the citizenship. The FDP has to tremble with 5 percent (-2.4) about the return.
+++ 18.00 clock: The first forecast was announced: According to the SPD comes to 37.1, the Greens to 25.5 percent. The left comes to 9.5, the CDU reach 11.5, the FDP to 5 and the AfD to 4.7 percent. With this, the FDP has to tremble that the AfD is out.
+++ 17.55 clock: This evening only "pre-counting" take place. "This is unique in Germany and has the sole purpose of having an approximate result for the public on election evening. The legally relevant counting will only start tomorrow, ”Wahlrecht.de reports on Twitter.
+++ 5.30 p.m .: Before the first projection, the FDP and the AfD are considered wobbly candidates. The high turnout could result in the AfD not making it into the Hamburg parliament. Right-wing terror in Hanau could also have a negative impact on the AfD's election results. The right wing party is blamed for the murders on the basis of their right-wing voting.
However, the events in Thuringia could have an impact on the election results for the FDP. There the FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich had been elected as prime minister with the votes of the AfD and CDU.
+++ 5:00 p.m .: There is a clear increase in voter turnout in the Hamburg state election . By 4 p.m., 57 percent of those entitled to vote cast their vote, as the state election management announced.
There was no direct comparison value for the election five years ago, but at the time the turnout was only 56.5 percent. This was a historic low.
+++ 14.25: 1.3 million people are entitled to vote in Hamburg. Anyone over the age of 16 can vote, but the young age group between 16 and 17 makes up only two percent of the total electorate. Every fifth person entitled to vote in Hamburg is 70 or older.
+++ 12.20 p.m .: While the polling stations in Hamburg have been open since 8 a.m., a candidate from the Hamburg Left makes headlines. Tom Radtke, in 20th place for the state election , likes to get applause from the far right.
Tom Radtke with "identities" in Hamburg memorial.
© Screenshot Twitter / Radtke
Lastly, because he took on the " Fridays for Futur " climate protection movement. "We have to stop global warming now so that a Holocaust does not repeat itself," said the 18-year-old, among other things, and also FFF has "nonsensical and anti-people content". With this he negotiated a party exclusion procedure.
Hamburg: Left candidate with "identities" in memorial
On February 22, shortly before the election, he went one step further. Together with members of the right-wing extremist “Identitarian Movement”, he cheated on the Hamburg memorial of Communist leader Ernst Thälmann and was photographed with the “Identitarian” banner: “Visited the Thälmann memorial with some comrades from @IB_Hamburg_ and about our big one Hamburg workers' guide informed. I am happy when people think outside the box. We need more openness instead of division and hate. Thälmann is alive! ”Says Twitter. As the “Mopo” reports, the group is said to have pretended to be Antifa and “to have crept into the memorial”. Last Friday, Radtke had already exchanged views with the head of Austria's “identities”, Martin Sellner.
© The left
Although the left clearly distances itself from Radtke and places him far behind in list position 20, he could still move into the Hamburg parliament via the direct votes. Then, however, he would be impartial. Many in the left environment consider him a "right submarine" in the Left Party.
Update from Sunday, February 23, 2020, 11:20 a.m .: In rainy and uncomfortable weather, the Hamburg elections began on Sunday. By 11:00 a.m., 29.6 percent of those entitled to vote cast their votes, as the state election office announced. Up to that point, 24.2 percent had voted in the 2015 state election. At the time, voter turnout had dropped to a historic low of 56.5 percent.
The top candidates from the SPD, the Greens and the CDU have already voted. Mayor Peter Tschentscher (SPD) elected in Barmbek-Nord, his deputy Katharina Fegebank (Greens) in Barmbek-Süd. CDU top candidate Marcus Weinberg voted in Bahrenfeld.
First message:
On February 23, a new citizenship is elected in Hamburg. It is the only national election this year at the state level, 1.3 million voters are called to cast their vote. 121 seats are available in the Hamburg parliament, according to recent surveys, the SPD is against the national trend as a favorite.
Citizenship election in Hamburg: SPD is favorite
Since 1946, a Social Democrat has almost always occupied the office of First Mayor, with the exception of the election periods 1953 to 57 and 2001 to 2011. The Hanseatic city is accordingly considered a stronghold of the SPD, which currently has around 37 and 39 in the polls around First Mayor Peter Tschentscher Percent achieved and thus clearly ahead of the other parties.
The Greens are the strongest competitor, with Katharina Fegebank the Vice Mayor and governing since 2015 in a coalition with the SPD. As the second strongest force, they currently account for 23 to 25 percent.
In the meantime, the SPD and the Greens had delivered a head-to-head race with values of around 30 percent. In the hot campaign phase, however, the SPD kept moving past the Greens.
In Hamburg, the CDU failed in the polls
The CDU seems to be lagging behind, oscillating between twelve and 14 percent. The left is about eight percent shortly before the election, the AfD fluctuates between six and seven. The FDP must fear to re-enter parliament. It is currently between four and a half and five percent.
Accordingly, it looks as if the SPD and Greens could continue their coalition with a comfortable majority for another five years. Tschentscher then called a new edition of red-green a "very, very obvious option".
However, the Social Democrats are also likely to lose votes compared to 2015, when they reached 45.9 percent. However, it is much less dramatic than the CDU (2015: 15.9) and the FDP (7.4) show. The Greens, on the other hand, could almost double their votes (2015: 12.3)
Does breaking the taboo in Thuringia affect Hamburg?
What makes the Hamburg election particularly interesting nationwide is the question of how the events in Thuringia have an impact on voter behavior. There, the FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich had been elected Prime Minister with the votes of the CDU and AfD. He resigned shortly afterwards, however, as managing director. Even though an agreement between the Red-Red-Green and the CDU seems to be on the way, Thuringia is currently still without an effective government.
Many observers had described the events in Erfurt as a political antidote that could further fuel the political disaffection of the voters. A choice of memoranda is conceivable for the CDU, FDP and AfD parties involved. (with agency)