The Hamburg election turns into a small debacle for the parties involved in the Thuringia scandal. Now there could be even more movement in the political landscape.
- Hamburg has elected a new citizenry - the parties to the right of the center received a violent clap.
- The events in Thuringia and Hanau could be the reason.
- A political scientist is now predicting the next upheaval for the AfD. The party only got 5.3 percent of the vote.
Hamburg / Munich - The Hamburg state elections delivered several surprises on Sunday. For example, that the SPD can still win elections - even if it loses votes in the process. And even if she starts with a business-oriented course. It was also shown that the Greens do not harm the offensive grip on the office of head of government. The party almost doubled its share of the vote.
The evening turned out to be almost unprecedentedly bitter for the right-wing parties: both the CDU and FDP , as well as the at least right-wing populist AfD , were severely punished. Together, the CDU and FDP achieved a paltry 16 percent, the AfD 5.2 percent.
The CDU even broke a negative record for an election in the federal and state governments: the eleven percent are the second worst result ever. Only in 1951 in Bremen did the Christian Democrats do even worse with 9.1 percent. At that time, the party landscape looked completely different - with a whole series of right-wing and conservative parties. How could this happen? The head of the federal CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, tried to answer this question at a press conference on Monday afternoon. In addition, she also gave details of how to proceed in the search for her successor.
Hamburg election: CDU, FDP and AfD to Thuringia with losses - in the city that once chose Schill
It is clear that Hamburg was already a difficult place for the "right" parties in the past elections. In 2015, “black and yellow” came to 23.3 percent. The AfD from a standing start to 6.1 percent.
But that the Hanseatic city is generally inaccessible to conservatives or right-wing populists is more of a legend: in 2004, CDU politician Ole von Beust won the absolute majority. In 2001, the Schill party , which had long since disappeared - Ronald Schill most recently appeared on trash TV - caused a bang, with 19.4 percent.
Citizenship election in Hamburg: CDU "at the level of the Left Party" - "Result must and shake awake"
A thesis quickly got around on Sunday evening: Thuringia and the chaotic freestyle of Thomas Kemmerich, who had five percent of the vote, as prime minister with votes from the FDP, CDU and AfD could have influenced the citizens' election. CDU General Paul Ziemiak admitted that Thuringia had "no tailwind". FDP leader Christian Lindner said: "Trust has to grow again, that's clear after such an event." At the same time, he announced that there had also been a rethink at the Hamburg state level. Cooperation with the AfD will no longer exist, even on "harmless" issues.
The CDU Mayor of Altenburg in Thuringia, André Neumann, tweeted his interpretation: "The AfD is so bad in Hamburg because nobody is cuddling with it and fishing for voters on the right-hand side," he explained. The best places to stand there would be those parties that most consistently differentiate themselves. In fact, immigration was hardly an issue in Hamburg : only five percent of the voters said in a survey that the issue was decisive for them.
The AfD is so bad in Hamburg because nobody cuddles with it and fishes for voters on the right. There is simply clearly delimited there. And those who do the most consistently do the best. Sounds weird? No, sounds logical! Please imitate!- André Neumann (@AndreNeumannABG) February 23, 2020
In any case, the CDU seems to be shaken vigorously. There is still a struggle for the successor to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, it could be trend-setting - and the debate is now becoming more acute. "The result has to shake us all up a bit that there is a lot at stake," Health Minister Jens Spahn told the dpa. "This is Hamburg, this is Thuringia, these are the poll values, this is the situation of the Federal Party." World journalist Robin Alexander saw the party on Sunday "at the level of the Left Party".
AfD almost falls out of parliament in Hamburg - Pazderski takes Höcke into his duty
In the meantime, the AfD seemed to miss the re-entry into parliament for a long time. In the end the evening took a different course. But after the past election successes, the party now faces an unusual situation. The first observers are already anticipating another “molting” of the AfD.
The more moderate Berlin AfD parliamentary group leader Georg Pazderski saw Hamburg as a receipt for the party's open right flank: The AfD had to "sharpen its conservative image and draw an even clearer border to the right wing". The right-wing national "wing" of Thuringian AfD chief Björn Höcke is also required here. A co-founder was even happy about the poor performance.
Election in Hamburg: expert considers AfD split possible
Political scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte told ZDF that it is possible that those who reject radicalization of the AfD will generally become louder in the AfD. But there could equally well be a split into a racially racist East AfD and a protest-oriented West AfD. "In any case, the result will have an impact in Hamburg," he said.
A further survey by infratest dimap could provide tailwind for Pazderski: According to this, 61 percent of AfD voters in Hamburg said that the party did not distance itself enough from right-wing extremist positions. Among the voters of the other parties, it was 87 percent.
Party leader Tino Chrupalla said rather nebulously in Hamburg: "Overall, it has been seen that the conservative conservative parties have lost everyone in Hamburg, that should give us all food for thought." The poor performance was the "result of a maximum exclusion campaign," he said on election evening.
Korte also formulated an insight for the other parties: "If the middle defends itself, becomes loud itself, then the margin becomes much smaller," he explained. Hanau and Thuringia have mobilized society. However, he does not see a permanent downward trend for the AfD - just like the Munich Merkur * in a comment - yet.
Curious election analyzes in Hamburg: first-time voters and women deliver unusual results
However, there is also a finding in Hamburg with a possible long-term effect: “Black and yellow” was also heavily wiped out among the first-time voters . The CDU landed at a disastrous six percent. The AfD also suffered a flop: According to exit polls, three percent of the first voters chose the right-wing populists. In Hamburg, voting is allowed from the age of 16.
Another exciting side aspect: shortly after the polling stations closed, the research group elections published a gender-specific analysis of the election results. Among the women , the SPD, Greens and Leftists came to 77 percent, CDU and FDP to 14.
Citizenship election in Hamburg: Are the Greens now reaching for the Chancellery?
The election result could also have an impact on the Greens. Historically, it was the second best election result at state level for the Greens, party leader Robert Habeck said on Sunday in Berlin. This is also thanks to the "courage to say yes, to fight for first place from the challenger position". So Hamburg had a "real choice".
In view of the current surveys at federal level, the Habeck - or also its co-boss Annalena Baerbock - could lead to a clear conclusion. Because the Greens are clearly the second strongest force behind the Union. In itself a good time to "fight for first place" in Berlin.
In the end, there was probably a very banal reason for the success of the SPD and the Greens . According to an analysis by the research group elections, the parties scored in Hamburg mainly on local issues. The pluses of the parties included their convincing government work, expertise and their reputation in the population, it said.
fn (with material from dpa)
* Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network.
List of rubric lists: © dpa / Kay Nietfeld