Politics
Written by: Zheng Baosheng
2020-02-27 07:00
Last updated: 2020-02-27 07:00The Financial Secretary Chen Maobo released his budget on the 26th. Under the influence of the pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan, sending money has become widely expected. Sure enough, Chen Maobo announced that each Hong Kong permanent resident distributed 10,000 yuan, setting a record for all previous money distributions.
Last year's anti-revision storm and this year's Wuhan pneumonia epidemic, Chief Executive Lin Zhengyue's popularity continued to diminish, and even foreign media pointed out that Beijing was considering substitutions, and Chen Maobo was one of the candidates.
Although the rumors could not be confirmed, looking back at the polls of the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Program, Chen Maobo was already the most supportive of the Chief Executive and the three directors. Will this money transfer help him to a higher level?
The epidemic affects a wide range of grassroots middle-income situations
The voice of sending money is endless. Recently, no matter whether it is a formed party or a democratic party, the government has been required to send money, and the highest "bid" is 10,000 yuan per person.
In fact, the epidemic has severely hit the Hong Kong economy, and some companies have stalled. Some have introduced suspension and retention measures. If the epidemic continues, there will inevitably be a wave of closures and unemployment. The middle-class people who have bought property in the booming property market and are now paying for it are also deeply affected. Although it's not much to send 10,000 yuan, it can be a little bit urgent in this severe moment. If "paid well", Chen Maobo's hope for a rebound will be impossible.
However, the relationship between sending money and popularity is like a two-edged sword, which can be a pedal for a strong rebound, or an undercurrent that sinks further.
In 2011, Zeng Junhua sent 6,000 original planned MPF injections to provoke negative comments
On February 23, 2011, the then Financial Secretary Zeng Junhua announced the injection of $ 6,000 into the MPF accounts of Hong Kong citizens, which is expected to involve $ 24 billion. Because the treasury was "flooded" the previous year, the society generally demanded money to be distributed. Zeng Junhua originally sent money in response to public opinion. Unexpectedly, the public thinks that injecting MPF funds will not be able to benefit immediately, and it will also make the "fund guys" "cross the river wet feet" and react negatively.
According to a survey from the University of Hong Kong's opinion research plan, Zeng Junhua's support was 52.4 points on February 23, down 3 points from 55.4 points in the previous survey. Although he changed his word on March 2, saying that he would pay 6,000 yuan to 18-year-old Hong Kong permanent residents, which is expected to cost 36 billion yuan. However, the popularity has not stopped falling. The investigation from March 1 to 9 It fell to 46.6 points. It did not bottom out with 44.9 points until the investigation from July 4 to 7. It did not return to the qualifying line until the investigation from July 9 to 11, 2012, and reported 56.4 points.
Zeng Junhua announced in his February 23, 2011 budget that he would inject 6,000 yuan into his MPF account, which caused the public not to pay. He later changed the distribution to 6,000 yuan per person on March 2, but failed to regain popularity. It fell from a low of 52.4 points (red box) on February 23 and hovered to a low level until the survey on July 9-11, 2012, when it regained more than 55 points. (The Hong Kong University Opinion Research Project)
Chen Maobo sent 4,000 procedures in 2018, which is complicated and tedious.
In fact, this kind of public opinion slump has actually been tried by Chen Maobo. On February 28, 2018, Chen Maobo announced the Budget, announcing a number of measures to enjoy economic results, but there have been criticisms of insufficient care for grassroots. Chen Maobo ’s popularity did not change much on the day of announcement, rising slightly from 44.3 points in the previous survey to 44.5 points on the day.
However, he stated on March 3 that the Entrusted Care Fund “filled in”, details were not disclosed, and support has begun to decline, falling from 44.5 points on February 28 to 2.4 points to 42.1 points on March 1 to 6 .
Chen Maobo announced the Caring and Sharing Plan on March 23, that is, the distribution of up to 4,000 yuan to qualified persons. Due to the complicated procedures, a large number of "negative reviews", the support from April 2 to 4 fell 5.9 points to 36.2 points, until the latest The investigation has not recovered to 44.5 points or more.
On February 28, 2018, when Chen Maobo announced the Budget, (the red frame), the public expectations remained unchanged, at 44.5 points. However, after the details of the distribution of 4,000 yuan were announced on March 23, the public did not send complicated procedures. His support has been declining. (The Hong Kong University Opinion Research Project)
The government pays the citizens the most attention to the simple and convenient procedures
From the public sentiment rebound of Zeng Junhua and Chen Maobo, it can be seen that the public's request is not necessarily to send money. However, if the government sends money, the most important thing is that the procedures are simple and straightforward. If there are too many procedures or the citizens cannot be short-term, Benefiting from within, citizens will have a "negative review". Not only will they fail to swell their popularity, the effect of lowering their popularity will be more than one and a half years.
This time, 10,000 yuan will be distributed. Although the details have not been announced, the government is expected to register in early July and start distributing in August. This time, the money distribution is similar to that of Zeng Junhua's distribution of 6,000 yuan in 2011. The most important condition is only Hong Kong permanent residents over 18 years of age. Therefore, you can refer to the application method of that year. You only need to fill in your name, ID number, phone number and bank account. Such information can be registered with the bank and post office.
It is also reported that the government intends to allow citizens to apply through electronic banking, simplify the registration process, and retain the post office application method to process applications for qualified persons without bank accounts.
In this way, the measure of 10,000 yuan sent by the whole people this time will have a very simple handling method, and the response is positive. If successfully handled, the risk of public opinion rebound is expected to be minimized.
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As for Lin Zhengyue, after the anti-revision storm, people ’s hopes have reached the bottom of the valley. According to one of the polls, their support has plummeted from 56.37 at the end of 2018 to a new low of 18.21 from February 17-19. Although the new Budget is led by Chen Maobo, will it drive Lin Zheng and other officials to rebound?
Lin Zheng announced in January that there was no rebound in public opinion on the Epidemic and Anti-epidemic Fund
On January 14 this year, Lin Zheng personally went on the road and announced with the Secretary for Labour and Welfare Luo Zhiguang and the Secretary for Transport and Housing Chen Fan 10 billion yuan to rescue people's livelihood, but Chen Maobo rarely attended. At that time, people in the political circle considered it Lin Zheng "paid the brakes" to send sugar to restore his popularity.
However, after reviewing the investigation from January 16 to 21, Lin Zheng ’s support did not rise but fell. From 21.5 points in the previous survey, it fell by 0.7 points to 20.8 points. Zheng's support is "back to the soul."
Lin Zhengyue announced the RMB 10 billion epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic fund on January 14, but the public opinion survey (red frame) on the 16th to the 21st was down 0.7 points from the last time. (Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion)
There are still two years before the chief executive election in 2022, but in a political underdog involving such huge interests, the time is actually short, and it can even be said that it is time to "strengthen" the popularity of the people. Chen Maobo is considered to be a powerful candidate for the big treasure. With this "opportunity" of 10,000 yuan, whether the popularity will soar will affect more than just a wealthy man. The money distribution process in the next six months will be positive or negative, and everyone will be happy or negative again, which will affect the throne battle two years later.
Budget 2020 Budget Chen Maobo Lin Zheng Yue'e
