Written by: Ban Shan
2020-02-27 22:28Last updated: 2020-02-27 22:29
The Financial Secretary, Chen Maobo, announced a new budget yesterday (26th). Naturally, the most noticeable measure is the distribution of 10,000 yuan by the entire people. The latest survey by the Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion found that Chen Maobo ’s popularity rating was 43.5 points, 16.9 points higher than before; the budget score was 54.1 points, and the net satisfaction value was positive 19 percentage points. The popularity is not very high, but at least it returns to the "normal" score and has a strong rebound.
In fact, this budget can be regarded as a "falling pie" for Chen Maobo. After experiencing political turmoil in the past half of the year and administrative mistakes under the pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan, the entire SAR government's expectations have plunged into the bottom, and the economy is facing a cold winter. In the end, Chen Maobo also agreed to send money by "half-pushing and half-pushing", which can be regarded as "making heroes with the current situation." Holding a hot fry with cold hands also laid the foundation for his future bid for the top spot.
However, the budget bundled with police funds is expected to become the next round of parliamentary offensive and defensive battles, and a stand-off situation has taken shape in the past two days. In the controversy, can Chen Maobo survive alone and avoid this potential political "little bomb"?
▼ "Budget 2020" measures ▼
Countless accidentally raised a chief black horse?
Chen Maobo's "Caring and Sharing" plan of 4,000 yuan the previous year was accused of complicated conditions and poor arrangements. Last year, it caused great market confusion and once weighed down Chen Maobo's image. He also had to apologize publicly for this. However, anti-revision demonstrations broke out in the middle of last year. The "accident" provided Chen Maobo with a chance to breathe. Unlike the other two directors, Zhang Jianzong and Zheng Ruoyong, who often show up to be targeted, Chen Maobo rarely “ups the body”. Naturally, public dissatisfaction with him will be transferred to other officials and the police.
In January of this year, Wuhan ’s new type of pneumonia killed Hong Kong. Chen Chief Executive Lin Zheng Yue'e failed to seize the opportunity to restore the popularity of the people. Instead, she continued to lose points on major issues such as mask supply and customs clearance. The Hong Kong Minyan Research Institute announced her score of 18.2 The net worth of Minwang was -74 percentage points, its worst record since taking office. As the local economy has been greatly affected, the Hong Kong Government's fiscal reserves have exceeded one trillion yuan, and the private and major parties have divergent attitudes towards money distribution. When sending money, Chen Maobo would not appear to be "willing to buy people's hearts", but a manifestation of "following public opinion."
It can be said that many different accidents provided Chen Maobo with political capital. Although Chen Maobo has indicated that the decision to send money was made after his discussion with Lin Zheng, to the public's perception, "credit" of course falls on the wealthy man. As Lin Zhengmin looked to the bottom, Chen Maobo was a "black horse of the chief executive" rumored by the outside world. According to word of mouth in the political circles, if Chen Maobo is going to compete for the chief executive in the future, this time sending money is his thickest capital. No wonder someone said with a smile that this time the entire people sent 10,000 yuan is Chen Maobo's "political windfall."
After Chen Maobo announced the distribution of money in the budget, the popularity rose by 16.9 points. (Photo by Zhang Haowei)
Appropriation for bundling police forces provoked public opinion offensive
However, things are always two-sided. Chen Maobo did not use an "upper body" in his anti-revision demonstrations, which has a lot to do with his "strategic position." However, this time the budget has added another political controversy. The 25.8 billion police force appropriation that the democrats have mocked as "police charges for the police force" has added a hint of political gunpowder to the budget that was only concerned with public finances. Democrats have criticized this for bundling money into controversial projects and launching a public opinion offensive against Chen Maobo.
Chen Maobo took a tough stance while attending the Legislative Council meeting today (27th), insisting that he did not consider splitting the cash sharing plan for consideration, and why the surge in funding for the police should be left to the Special Finance Committee to "explain by the Security Bureau and the Police." It can be expected that the relevant disputes will become the tipping point of the next round of parliamentary offensive and defensive warfare, and even become a political "little bomb" for Chen Maobo. The light yellow / centre citizens who welcome money distribution but are strongly dissatisfied with the police will have How does it react?
Cai Ziqiang analyzed that Chen Maobo's sending money was not an arduous task. The selection of the chief executive to be "bullish" may be based on "Navy Marines." (Profile picture)
Cai Ziqiang: The Navy ’s water fighting forces democrats have a “tough attitude and limited resistance”
Cai Ziqiang, a senior lecturer in the Department of Politics and Administration of the Chinese University of China, said that the image of the constitutional party was severely damaged after the anti-revision storm. Among the "potential chief executive candidates" speculated by the outside world, none of them has achieved specific and important political achievements. The "quotation bullish" for the chief executive is largely due to the "navy fighters."
Cai Ziqiang described that Chen Maobo's announcement that sending money was not an arduous task. In contrast, during the tenure of Tsang Yam-kuen, he led the Hong Kong government to "fight predators" to repel Soros and to keep the linked exchange rate an outstanding achievement. "You also have to recall that Zeng Yinquan's potential opponents were very strong at that time, including Chen Fangansheng, Liang Jinsong, and later Liang Zhenying. Zeng Yinquan could eventually reach a higher level." He estimated that Chen Maobo's popularity was anxious. The rise may be a false fire, depending on how he will dismantle the democratic offensive in the future.
With regard to the number of votes, it is theoretically impossible for democrats to block the vote. Will they start a protest of the same scale as during the controversy under the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance last year and hinder Parliament? Cai Ziqiang analyzes that the democrats are in a dilemma. After all, the Budget this time bundled money, and if the resistance is too fierce, it is easy to be accused of “blocking people from developing” and offending voters. Fierce supporters, "but I believe this ground will not be too big." He expected that the democrats would maintain a "tough and stance", but they might not dare to paralyze the parliament.
[Budget 2020] Citizens' Budget 54.1 minutes Chen Maobo's popularity rises 16.9 points
[Budget 2020] Shao Jiahui urges clarification of non-opposition money Chen Maobo, Chen Jianbo
[Budget] Citizens worry about cliff-like decline in property market
Circumstances in the political circle Budget 2020 Budget Budget $ 10,000 Chen Maobo