The formation of a government has been well suited to the PSOE after months of political blockade, according to data from the first barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) after the inauguration of January 7. The Socialists consolidate their advantage as the most voted party in Spain and expand the distance with the PP, which suffers a slight fall in these first weeks, and as an undisputed leader of the opposition after the sinking of Citizens. The PSOE rises to 30.9% of the estimated support (in the November 2019 elections they remained at 28%). The Socialists advance half a percentage point over the previous study in January and extend their advantage over the PP, which falls one point and stands at 18.9%.
United Podemos and Vox are maintained, with 13.6% (two tenths less than in January) for Pablo Iglesias' party and 13.4% (the same percentage) for Santiago Abascal's. In the November elections, it was Vox who won the game to United Podemos and placed as third party, with 15.1% versus 12.8% of the group led by Iglesias. In the case of Citizens, despite the internal confrontation before their next congress, the institute led by José Félix Tezanos points to a certain recovery, since it goes from 6.5% to 8.1%, somewhat unexpected given the political situation.
Citizen's concern for politics reaches its maximum
- The PSOE expands its advantage over the PP after the investiture agreements, according to the CIS
- La Moncloa trusts the CIS among the skepticism of everyone else
The survey would thus consolidate the idea that the PSOE has not had a wear and tear on the decision, much criticized by the opposition, to support the majority in the independence of ERC and agree with them a dialogue table between governments that had Wednesday Your first meeting. The PP, Citizens and Vox have turned this issue into the central element of criticism of the Government, convinced that it is the weak flank of the Coalition Executive, but the survey comes to point out that, for now, the one that suffers from wear is the opposition , something on the other hand habitual when a new Government is formed, that usually starts with a certain tail wind.
Another central issue to see what will happen in the legislature is the battle between ERC and Junts per Catalunya to take over the leadership of independence. Catalonia already lives in a pre-election environment, although when the field work was still done Quim Torra had not considered the legislature exhausted. The survey, which coincides with others recently published in Catalonia, points to a downward trend in CKD and the rise of Junts per Catalunya, an issue that worries Republicans and may affect their decisions on the General State Budget, although this Thursday with their abstention they have allowed the approval of the deficit path, a fundamental previous step to bring the Accounts to Parliament. Oriol Junqueras' party goes from 3.9% to 3.3% (in Spain as a whole) while Carles Puigdemont's party rises from 1.4% to 1.8%.
Five weeks after the regional elections in the Basque Country and Galicia, the CIS points to a retreat of the PNV (from 1.6% to 1.3%) and EH Bildu (from 1.3% to 1.1%) already a reinforcement of the BNG, which would go from 0.5% in Spain as a whole to 0.7%.
The field work was carried out between February 1 and 11. It is the first barometer that reflects the actions of the new Government, which took office on January 13, after the previous survey was carried out. During the study days, the Executive faced the controversy over the meeting of the Minister of Transportation, José Luis Ábalos, and the Vice President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, at the Barajas airport. In addition, on those dates there was the visit of the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, to Barcelona to meet with the President of the Generalitat, Quim Torra. Everything indicates that the new climate of rapprochement with independentists is not having the electoral cost that some feared in the PSOE, at least according to the CIS.