"SARS, a bad memory". This is what the vice-president of Millennium & Copthorne, the second hotel group in Singapore, declared in September 2003, less than 3 months after the official end of the SARS epidemic, and only 7 months after its outbreak in March 2003. And yet , in June of the same year, hotel occupancy rates in the Asia zone were at their lowest and the main tourist sites completely deserted.
This post-epidemic scenario, if it were to reproduce for the coronavirus, would reassure tourism professionals, in France or in Asia. Actors today find it difficult to assess the impacts and consequences of this health crisis where bad news and "fakenews" mingle. Facts and outlook.
In the short term, consequences for the destination "China" ...
This crisis first concerns the French currently on the spot or leaving for Asia, the epicenter of Covid-19. The destination "China" remains closed to travelers from France and the few thousand French tourists who were there via an organized trip have all returned. It should also be noted that none of them carried the virus. In addition, with the exception of the three Frenchmen who were on board the cruise ship Princess Diamond and who remained confined for two weeks, French tour operators currently find that there is little disruption linked to the virus for travelers present at the moment in other Asian countries, like the sanitary measures imposed during airport controls.
The most visible consequences are the absence of Chinese tourists at the main sites. In certain high places of Cambodia or Thailand, they usually represent nearly 70% of the visitors. Goodbye queues, crowded photos ... Paradoxically, from a certain point of view, there may never have been a better time to visit Southeast Asia. Obviously, this situation is only possible because currently the cases of patients with Covid-19 are counted in units or tens in these countries, excluding China and South Korea. If the epidemic were to really spread, we can expect more practical consequences for tourists.
Lionel Rabiet, president of Ile-de-France Travel Companies and director of the exceptional Croisières tour operator. Tord Baklund
… And for tourist areas welcoming Chinese people
Fewer Chinese tourists in Southeast Asia, as well as in Europe and France. Over the years, travelers from the Middle Empire have taken an increasing share among visitors to our country. The current collapse in the number of Chinese tourists (2.2 million in 2018 according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs) translates into a sharp drop in sales for specialized receptives and for department stores such as Galeries Lafayette or Printemps in Paris, whose dedicated areas are deserted. Remember, the Chinese are very fond of major French brands and consume significantly more than tourists of other nationalities.
Tour operators specializing in Asia are also suffering from a significant drop in bookings to countries on the continent. The destination "China" in the first place, of course, but which is not the first choice of the French in Asia. And reservations were already down sharply following the strengthening of visa procedures since July 2019 and the episode of riots in Hong Kong.
The stakes for the other countries of the continent are much higher. Asia currently represents, according to the Syndicate of Tour Operators (Seto), 25% of long-haul organized trips by French people (187,000 travelers for a turnover of € 465 million). A figure already shrinking compared to the 2017/2018 vintage (-7%). We can expect a bigger drop this year.
All operators have indeed noted since the start of the crisis a significant decline in bookings to the main destinations of Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea and Japan: they fall by 20 to 50% compared to 2019. The Indonesia and Malaysia resist. It will take a few weeks to gauge the real impact on the departure of holidaymakers to Asia by distinguishing between the sales actually lost and those which have simply been postponed. In 2003, a phenomenon of catching up with registrations in the second half had partially erased cancellations and sales not made to the first.
In the medium term, reservations are decreasing, especially for the cruise sector
Current events have also highlighted cruise travel with the spectacular quarantine of the Diamond Princess from February 1 to 19. A real media soap opera with the daily count of the contaminated and headlines of newspapers more alarmist than the others ("the cruise of fear", "the passengers of anxiety" etc.). Immediate consequence: the shipowners of the whole world put in place very strict hygiene measures and modified the itineraries of their cruises in Asia. Some have even redeployed their ships to other destinations such as Australia or North America.
In France, the result is palpable: the companies observe a slowdown in sales in February, a traditional period of high reservations. But it is only in a few weeks that we will know if this drop persists or will be quickly compensated. The cruise industry is used to crises and has always recovered quickly.
In January 2012, the sinking of the Costa Concordia in Italy had generated a huge media response in France, without, however, slowing the annual growth of the market (increase of 9% compared to 2011, according to CLIA) with, nevertheless, a drop in prices. means. The growth vectors of the cruise market (development of the offer with new ships carrying ever more innovative services, important communication from the main players, value for money, loyalty to the product) should, if we believe the past, quickly erase this cyclical downturn.
In the long term, consequences on the desire to travel of the French?
For the coming months, we can wonder about the effect that the Coronavirus can have on the “desire to travel” of the French and therefore on the travel industry as a whole. Especially since new top destinations - like Italy - are affected and radical prevention measures are emerging. This bad news clearly has an impact on operators' travel sales, which have fallen by 20 to 30% in recent days. Will this decline continue?
Here too, a look in the rear view mirror can shed some light. The tourism sector is used to crises, be they health, media, diplomatic, security or environmental. They are reflected in sales by stops, jolts, slowdowns, accelerations ... which make it difficult to read long-term trends at the moment. Including by tour operators themselves.
With hindsight, however, over the past twenty years, there has been a fairly strong correlation between economic growth and travel consumption. When the growth is there, the French have more desire to consume, project themselves into the future and… travel! The reverse is also true. The extent of the damage that the Coronavirus will cause to our economy will therefore most certainly determine the impact on players in the travel sector, whose resilience has been tested many times in the past. ”