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Corona virus: Bitter forecast for global economy - Söder speaks of an emergency plan

2020-03-03T13:51:52.063Z

The corona virus is burdening the economy. The population reacts by buying hamsters, the OECD with a bitter forecast. The alarm level is red.



The corona virus is burdening the economy. The population reacts by buying hamsters, the OECD with a bitter forecast. The alarm level is red.

  • The corona virus is now extremely stressful for the German and international economy .
  • On the Frankfurt Stock Exchange , investors are feeling the effects of Covid-19 due to falling share prices .
  • Governments and central banks are now working on measures.

Update at 2:32 p.m .: In view of the increasing effects of the new corona virus on the economy, CSU boss Markus Söder is pressing for financial aid for companies. The coalition committee on Sunday should talk about an economic emergency and preparedness plan for the rest of this year, the Bavarian prime minister emphasized on Tuesday after a Bavarian-Saxon cabinet meeting in Hof.

He mentioned a possible package of tax breaks , additional depreciation options and an adjustment to short-time allowance : This had to be adapted directly to the new situation.

Corona virus: Bitter forecast for global economy - Söder vehemently demands consequences

Update at 1:46 p.m .: After the cancellation of the International Crafts Fair in Munich , the traditional top talk of the German economy with Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) has now been canceled . The meeting planned for Friday, March 13, will not take place, announced the Central Association of German Crafts on Tuesday in Berlin.

Update at 11.38 a.m .: The latest corona virus developments are ringing the alarm bells among business experts , politicians and corporate executives. In recent days, several companies have sent their employees home, Markus Söder (CSU) and Christian Lindner (FDP) are calling for economic stimulus packages and the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation ( OECD ) has significantly reduced its growth forecast for the global economy (we reported). In her reports, she believes a reduction in growth from 2.9 to 2.4 percent is possible. But the OECD still assumes the extremely optimistic - and at the same time extremely unlikely - assumption that the virus will no longer spread noticeably from now on, writes faz.net .

In addition, OECD chief economist Laurence Boone warns that a recession in Japan, the United States and the eurozone is a real risk . Governments and central banks around the world are now trying to limit their losses. A few days ago, the US Federal Reserve tried to calm financial markets and economic actors. "We will use our instruments and respond appropriately to support the economy," said one opinion.

By the way: Coronavirus was also a topic on ARD talk with Frank Plasberg on Monday. During the broadcast, the moderator amazed with a question of racism.

Coronavirus: ECB and governments discuss measures

The European Central Bank (ECB) is also ready to intervene to dampen the economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis . This was announced by ECB chief Christine Lagarde on Monday in Frankfurt. But not only important economic players, politicians are also becoming active: In Germany, Söder speaks of an economic stimulus package * with lower energy prices and corporate taxes . And, according to the FAZ , advisors in the White House are apparently also discussing tax cuts and other measures to avert a recession.

Update at 9.55 a.m .: Google has also taken measures against the spread of corona virus . In Dublin , an employee showed flu-like symptoms , a Google spokesman confirmed on Tuesday. As a precaution, Google is now letting its employees in the Irish capital work from home for a day . Previously, Google has more than 8,000 employees at its EU headquarters in Ireland who are affected by the move.

Coronavirus: Twitter lets employees work from home around the world

Update from March 3, 2020, 8:11 a.m .: Twitter has now responded to the coronavirus spread with a drastic measure. The social network has called on its employees to work from home worldwide . Important tasks and internal meetings are to be optimized for Internet access, Twitter announced. This is intended to slow the spread of the disease and protect the company's employees. In South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong , Twitter workers even have to work at home . In other countries, they can go to the office "if they prefer or if it is necessary". The call affects around 4,900 employees who work for Twitter.

Update at 8:37 p.m .: It cannot be denied that the economy in Germany and Bavaria is suffering greatly from the spread of the corona virus . Many days off and compulsory home office gnaw at the productivity of the companies.

Markus Söder (CSU) is therefore now calling for an economic stimulus package. The dip must be compensated and the " slumping economy stabilized", warns the CSU boss.

Coronavirus: consumer minister criticizes hamster purchases

Update at 6:57 p.m .: North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister of Consumer Affairs Ursula Heinen-Esser does not leave hair for hamster purchases because of the corona virus in an interview with the Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger (Tuesday edition). "I think that is completely exaggerated and causes unnecessary panic, " she is quoted in the advance notification. The food supply in Germany is secured.

"I also think that buying hamsters is senseless, " says the CDU politician , "because presumably a large part of the supplies will eventually be thrown away."

Coronavirus: Empty shelves due to hamster purchases - Ministry of Labor responds

At the same time, the Ministry of Labor in North Rhine-Westphalia makes a decision that can be seen as a contrary statement. A spokesman for the Bild newspaper confirmed that the ban on Sunday work was to be relaxed. For example, the supermarkets could receive new goods on Monday morning , "even if the orders are received only on Saturdays after the store closes due to empty shelves ."

The Ministry of Labor must respond to the hamster purchases with exemptions . Seems that supply in Germany will reach its limits if there is increased demand. However, if people followed the recommendation of the Minister of Consumer Affairs , this contradiction to her statement would not even come about.

Nevertheless, the shelves of many supermarkets are literally bought empty. Discount giant Aldi in particular is now threatened by a mega rush. He will soon have disinfectants on offer.

Corona virus causes gloomy economic forecast - Lufthansa draws drastic consequences

Update at 3:34 p.m .: In order not to increase the spread of the corona virus , further industry meetings in Germany have been canceled for the time being. The IWA Outdoor Classics fair planned for the weekend was postponed to September, as the Nürnberg fair announced on Monday. According to the organizers, around 30,000 of the 45,000 trade visitors to the leading international trade fair for hunting, shooting sports and personal protection normally come from abroad.

The fiberglass fair Fiberdays , which was due to start in Wiesbaden on Thursday, was also postponed. The industry association Breko is now aiming for an alternative date in mid-October. Last year about 3000 trade visitors and 160 exhibitors came.

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Pharma Conference Vision.A

According to the organizers, around 500 guests were moved from mid-March to June. The Cyber ​​Security Tech Summit Europe, an event for digital security in Bonn, planned for March 11, had previously been canceled. The already registered 2000 guests have to hope for a new appointment in the second half of the year, according to the organizer association Cyber ​​Security Cluster.

The fear of the corona virus has also reached the Chancellery. This shows a scene that took place between Merkel and Seehofer.

Update at 12.55 p.m .: Now it has reached the first automotive group. BMW has just informed its employees about a Munich BMW employee infected with coronavirus.

Update at 12.46 p.m .: Due to the spread of the corona virus , the Cyber ​​Security Tech Summit Europe event in Bonn has now been canceled . It was originally planned for March 11, but is not now scheduled to take place. This is to prevent possible infections among the 2000 guests expected. However, the organizers want to try to find a new date in the second half of the year.

Corona virus and economy: OECD has grim forecast for global economy

Update at 11.45 a.m .: Again there is a gloomy forecast in connection with the corona virus : The Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) lowered its global growth forecast for 2020 by half a point to 2.4 percent. She announced this on Monday. According to the calculations, China is particularly affected, but the economy is also likely to shrink in Germany and the entire euro zone.

And Lufthansa has also reacted to the latest corona virus developments: the German airline and its subsidiaries are reducing their flight offerings on the routes to Italy and Asia, in part significantly, due to the corona virus epidemic . There are also changes for domestic German air traffic : "The frequencies on domestic connections from Frankfurt to Berlin, Munich, Hamburg and Paderborn as well as from Munich to Berlin, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Cologne, Bremen and Hanover will be reduced," the group said on Monday Frankfurt with. Lufthansa, Swiss and Austrian Airlines had previously suspended their flights to mainland China.

Management is now reacting to the increased spread of the virus with the additional cuts. In March and April, part of the planned flights to Italy, Hong Kong and South Korea are to be suspended. Flights to mainland China are canceled until April 24 and connections to Tehran until April 30. The effects on the profit are currently not assessable, it said

Coronavirus: Further major events canceled

Update from March 2nd, 9:39 am: At the weekend, several major events in Germany were canceled or postponed due to the corona virus . After the cancellation of the world's largest travel trade fair ITB in Berlin, it was unclear whether exhibitors would be compensated. The restaurant guide Guide Michelin canceled the star ceremony planned for Tuesday in Hamburg. The Düsseldorf trade fairPro Wein ” will also be postponed due to the corona virus .

Due to the infection with Sars-CoV-2 at one employee, all subsidiaries of the machine manufacturer DMG Mori in Pfronten in the Allgäu are closed on Monday and Tuesday . Around 1,600 employees are affected .

Corona virus - global stock market slumps - Scholz thinks of economic stimulus package

Update at 4:11 p.m .: Further coronavirus cases were confirmed in several federal states on Saturday. The impact of the spread of the virus on everyday life is increasing - everywhere. The United States and Australia reported the first deaths from the novel corona virus in their countries.

Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) sees sufficient funds to counteract the negative consequences of the spread of the virus for the economy. "If the situation required such an impulse to be necessary, we also have the means to launch an economic stimulus package, " said Scholz of the "Welt am Sonntag". While politicians and economic experts are very worried about the development of the corona virus, Anne Will did not speak up on the subject on Sunday - because the program was often repeated. In view of the large number of current hot topics - in addition to the corona virus, the situation on the German-Turkish border is extremely tense - many Twitter users criticize the broadcaster for the failure of the TV talk.

Update at 12:01: sales of Corona beer due to the virus? A message from the PR agency 5W suggested this. 38 percent of 737 respondents had given up their beer . According to the survey, 16 percent of the survey participants were confused as to whether there was a connection between Corona beer and the Corona virus . And, according to pollster company YouGov, the popularity of beer dropped from 75 percent in January to 51 percent in late February.

The US owner of the Corona brand has now responded. He dismissed the reports that 38 percent of US citizens hesitated to buy Corona beer because of CoVid19. "Our thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected by the terrible virus," said Bill Newlands, chief of Constellation Brands. However, he emphasized that the Corona beer business was not affected .

Corona virus and the economy: fear of CoVid19 noticeable on stock markets - is there a stock market crash?

Update from March 1, 11:27 am: The fear of coronavirus has drastic consequences for the stock markets as well. The courses are giving way worldwide. "Factories are closed, production is stuck - this will definitely have an impact on many company numbers," Jürgen Kurz from the German Protection Association for Security Ownership (DSW) in Düsseldorf told n-tv.de . The mood on the stock markets, for example in Frankfurt and New York, is currently very uncertain. "And the stock exchanges hate uncertainty, " Kurz says.

But he advises investors not to act too hastily . In many sectors, such as tourism or the automotive industry, the effects can already be felt. However, it is unclear whether this will also lead to a recession. So investors do n't have to panic yet , says Kurz. But he also warns: buying shares now involves risks from the expert's perspective. " No one can say how far the courses will give way, " emphasizes Kurz at n-tv .

And the corona virus does not only cause uncertainty on the stock markets. The government aircraft was also suspected of CoVid19 on Friday. Development Minister Gerd Müller was on his return flight from India to Munich when the horror message reached him by phone.

Corona virus and economy: Aldi is responding to the challenges - but many shelves are empty

Update from February 29, 2.35 p.m .: As Aldi reported a few days ago, there is increased demand for food in the discounters. Aldi claimed to face this challenge and respond to it. On Aldi's Facebook page, many customers complained that this reaction had not been adequate at all: the shelves that some users post are yawningly empty.

+

Empty shelves at Aldi.

© Facebook Aldi Süd Community

"Fill up your shelves again ... everyone goes crazy", writes a user with the zip code 71. "For God's sake", another user commented on the photo.

+

Empty shelves at Aldi.

© Facebook Aldi Süd Community

Another user from Eschweiler wrote: “Today my life partner was shopping with you. What can I say, everything bought empty from panic customers. I'm curious how the coming week will look like.

Aldi doesn't seem to be able to cope with the increasing demand as well as expected.

A connection with the corona virus is of course not handed down - after all, discounter customers are also generally quite happy to buy on Saturdays.

Corona virus and the economy: Michelin cancels event in Hamburg

Update of February 29, 1:10 p.m .: The restaurant guide Guide Michelin has canceled the star award in Hamburg planned for Tuesday due to the corona virus. Michelin Europe North gave the reason in a statement on Saturday as to the health risks for the participants. The awarding of the restaurants takes place in a "digital press communication".

Update from February 29, 8.32 a.m .: Bavaria is potentially at risk due to its proximity to Italy. This is what the current measures for corona virus protection in Bavaria * look like.

Corona virus and the economy: Berlin travel trade fair canceled - Lufthansa takes a drastic step

Update from February 28, 8:18 p.m .: Lufthansa is responding to the spread of the corona virus and plans to significantly reduce its short-haul flights in the coming weeks. The offer on the short and medium-haul routes could drop by up to 25 percent, the Dax group said on Friday in Frankfurt. The airline is also examining the possibility of applying for short-time work in various areas.

The aggravated situation should also be felt on long-haul flights, with the number of long-haul aircraft remaining on the ground increasing from 13 to 23 in the group. The expected negative impact on earnings from current developments cannot yet be estimated, it said. On March 19, the group plans to present financial figures at the annual press conference.

19:34: The ITB travel fair in Berlin is canceled due to the new corona virus. In a message on Twitter it says: "Due to the increasing spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19, the Federal Ministry of Health and the Federal Ministry of Economics have spoken out to cancel the ITB Berlin."

⚠️ ITB Berlin 2020 canceled! #MesseBerlin # ITB2020 pic.twitter.com/JuRMoDD9lH

- Messe Berlin (@MesseBerlin) February 28, 2020

Coronavirus: 345 trade fairs canceled - German exhibitions also affected

4:44 pm: Meanwhile , several trade fairs have already been canceled worldwide, now increasingly in Europe. A total of 345 trade fairs and exhibitions were postponed or canceled altogether, according to figures from m + a Messemedien Frankfurt, of which 227 in Asia and 67 in Europe.

Trade fairs in Italy (Bologna, Milan, Parma, Verona, ...) are particularly affected, but also German exhibitions. The following trade fairs in Germany do not take place due to the corona virus :

  • Berlin: Asia Apparel Expo
  • Düsseldorf: METAV
  • Frankfurt am Main: Light + Building
  • Cologne: International Hardware Fair
  • Nuremberg: Frontale window construction
  • Nuremberg: IWA OutdoorClassics

4:04 pm: By Friday evening, Messe Berlin would like to announce whether the ITB travel fair can take place next week in view of the new Corona virus. If major events are canceled, this would also affect hotels, restaurants and caterers . The industry association Dehoga affirmed on Friday that the industry has so far only been able to identify "a single point of concern". "Occasionally, hotels report cancellations by Chinese travelers," it said in a statement.

Corona virus and the economy: massive effects on the stock market - worst losses since 2011

2:35 p.m .: Shares of alleged beneficiaries of the viral disease were in demand on the stock exchanges on Friday, including the respiratory mask manufacturer Drägerwerk and the provider of video conference software Teamviewer. Meanwhile, the oil price continues to fall. At noon, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent cost $ 51.13. That was $ 1.05 less than the previous day. From a weekly perspective, the market is heading for the worst losses since 2011 .

11.45 a.m .: In view of the coronavirus epidemic , the Geneva Motor Show has been canceled. The well-known international vehicle trade fair will be canceled this year, the local authorities said on Friday. The opening of the motor show was scheduled for next Thursday.

Because of Corona: Deutsche Bank makes an unpleasant forecast - is Germany slipping into recession?

11.40 a.m .: According to Deutsche Bank, the spread of the corona virus could lead to a recession in Germany. "The export-oriented German economy is particularly badly hit by the interruption of international supply chains," said Stefan Schneider, chief economist for Germany, on Thursday evening in Frankfurt. It is therefore likely that the German economy will shrink in the first two quarters of the year.

Even in the year as a whole, growth should “not be much” above the zero line if the main scenario expected by the bank occurs, Schneider said. The previous official forecast of economic growth of 0.7 percent would then not be hold. In its main scenario, Deutsche Bank expects the number of people suffering from the coronavirus to increase to three million worldwide and that 30,000 people will die. Chief economist David Folkerts-Landau attributes this to a probability of 50 percent.

The price slide due to concerns about a coronavirus pandemic peaked on Friday with a Dax loss of more than 5 percent at times. With a drop of a good 13.5 percent since last Friday, investors are experiencing the blackest week since the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008 .

Meanwhile, an expert on Maybrit Illner's (ZDF) coronavirus talk was losing patience.

Corona virus: stock market investors in “panic mode”

9.55 a.m .: The spread of the corona virus continues to push the stock market prices deep into the red. The German share index DAX fell again on Friday by more than three percent and was trading 3.85 percent below the previous day's value at the start of trading. Since Monday, the index of the 30 largest German companies has lost a good twelve percent.

At the trading centers in London, Paris and Milan, the price losses continued on Friday morning. Investors have switched to "panic mode" , commented analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya, from Swissquote Bank.

The outgoing head of the British central bank, Mark Carney, has warned of the economic consequences of the new corona virus. The virus crisis could slow global growth and subsequently the UK, Carney told Sky News on Friday.

Because of corona virus: Easyjet cancels flights - demand decreased

8.35 a.m .: Due to the spread of the corona virus, the British airline Easyjet is canceling flights and is also launching an austerity program. Connections to and from northern Italy, where numerous infections have been reported, are particularly affected, said Easyjet on Friday in Luton near London. There, but also in other regions of Europe, demand has recently declined . The low-cost airline also announced measures similar to those previously announced by Lufthansa to reduce the impact of virus spreading on business.

This would postpone recruitment and promotions across the company and postpone subordinate projects and spending. Employees are offered unpaid leave. Costs should also be saved in administration, premiums will be cut.

Corona virus: feared severe impact on German economy - aid for closed businesses announced

Update of February 28, 2020, 8.25 a.m .: The Federal Employment Agency pays short-time work allowance for employees whose companies are affected by the new corona virus. "The right to short-time work benefits must be based on an inevitable event or economic reasons. This applies, for example, when deliveries fail to appear and production has to be restricted, ”said the Federal Agency on Friday.

An inevitable event also exists if, for example, companies are closed due to state protection measures . However, it is important that the companies notify short-time work in advance to the responsible employment agency. The Federal Agency announced that the first inquiries had already been received .

Numerous companies in Germany rely on supplies of materials and components from China for their production. Economists fear significant losses if the situation around the virus does not relax relatively quickly.

Hamster purchases due to coronavirus: Aldi and Lidl are already “intensely” reacting

Update at 6:35 p.m .: The corona virus leads to an increased demand for durable food and hygiene products, Aldi-Süd and Lidl observe. "We are prepared for this and are increasing our inventory accordingly," explained Aldi-Süd. Lidl has also replenished inventories and is working “intensively” on the secure supply of goods.

The Rewe Group, which also includes Penny stores, has so far not had any noticeably strong demand. According to the German trade association, there have been no bottlenecks so far.

Update at 4.15 p.m .: The future effects of the corona virus will also concern the federal government . For example, the crisis team of the Federal Ministry of Health and the Federal Ministry of the Interior wants to deal with the effects of the Corona outbreak on the world's largest tourism fair ITB in Berlin this Friday. As Interior Minister Horst Seehofer (CSU) announced on Thursday in Berlin, health protection and economic interests would have to be weighed up. You have to judge how many people would come from China and other stressed countries, said Seehofer.

Corona virus: There are strict rules for exhibitors at the ITB tourism trade fair in Berlin

The trade fair operators had previously announced that exhibitors who had been in the respective risk areas in China, Iran, Italy or South Korea during the past two weeks were not allowed on the exhibition grounds . The same applies to exhibitors who have had contact with an infected person or who have signs of typical symptoms such as fever, cough or difficulty breathing. According to current planning, the fair is to take place from March 4 to 8 . According to data collected by the Frankfurt m + a trade fair media, 230 trade fair events have already been canceled or postponed around the world. Including 50 events in Europe with a focus on Italy. So far, three trade fairs in Berlin, Frankfurt and Cologne have been rescheduled to later dates.

First report from February 27, 2020: Frankfurt - The corona virus not only has devastating health consequences, the economy also suffers from the lung disease from China. The fear of the consequences of the corona virus has now also got a firm grip on the stock exchanges . After the break from the previous day , the Dax lost a good two percent on Thursday morning in Frankfurt to 12 509.67 points . The day before, the index had already dropped to its lowest level since mid-October .

Corona virus: The economic consequences are enormous - yields have fallen to record lows

An expert emphasized that investors still did not properly assess the consequences of Covid19 * . At the same time, however, yields on the bond markets fell to new record lows . For long-term oriented investors, shares at a lower level could therefore become attractive again.

Lufthansa shares fell by almost six percent to their lowest level in three years. Analysts justified the sharp drop in the fact that investors had apparently opted to contain the corona virus in the Asia region before the losses.

Read also what symptoms the coronavirus causes in humans.

Coronavirus: German industry sees the epidemic as a "stress test" for the economy

German industry sees the corona virus , which is now more deadly than the flu, as a "stress test" for the economy . The chief executive of the Federal Association of German Industry, Joachim Lang, warns of “ noticeable negative effects ” for the economy and therefore called on the federal government to coordinate economic policy. "In addition to health protection, politics must now also focus on economic crisis management ." Coronavirus consequences are particularly worrying for the economy, also because China is Germany's largest trading partner .

Lang explained that some supply chains with a strong focus on China would not pass the “stress test” at the moment. The more than 5000 German companies in China are severely restricted in procurement, production and sales. But not only internationally active companies from Germany are suffering from the consequences of Covid19. According to a survey by the Federal Association of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses, every fourth small and medium-sized German company is already feeling the effects of the epidemic.

You can also read at Merkur.de how high the risk of infection with the corona virus is and whether quarantined employees continue to receive salary *.

Carmen Geiss is currently spreading an idiosyncratic theory about an alleged coronavirus cure on Instagram. "I definitely believe in it," says the millionaire's wife, which is driving some followers crazy.

* Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network.

dpa / AFP / cia

List of rubric lists: © dpa / Lino Mirgeler

Source: merkur

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