The year is still young, but its historical significance is already clear. At least as far as the West is concerned, the events that are coming in the coming months will have an overwhelming and decisive impact on the future. The moment of truth will come on November 3, 2020, when the Americans elect their next president.
It is clear that the presidential elections of the United States have always been important for the planet, since they determine who will lead the most powerful country in the world for the next four years. But this time much more is at stake. The re-election of President Donald Trump could mark the end of the world liberal order and the alliance systems that the United States has promoted since the 1940s.
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Departing from the American tradition of global leadership, Trump prefers a myopic nationalism and has shown few limitations in undermining his country's democracy, not to a lesser extent in questioning the separation of powers and other crucial institutions. If Trump wins in November, he will have a full four-year term to wreak havoc. The result will fit the description he gave in his inaugural address: a butcher shop across the country.
Make no mistake: it is very different that Trump is in the White House eight years instead of four. In addition to the Americans, we Europeans would be the first to feel the consequences of Trump's second term. The fact is that Europe remains almost existentially dependent on the United States, both economically and in its security. It is a legacy of the twentieth century, with its world wars and its long Cold War, deeply rooted historical realities that cannot be easily and quickly reversed. Trump has already forced Europe to seek its own sovereignty, but that end cannot be achieved easily or cheaply.
When Trump was elected in 2016, the news took almost everyone by surprise, both inside and outside the United States. In 2020, nobody will make such a mistake again. But neither can anyone claim that he doesn't know what we're getting with Trump. The current president may be unfaithful with the truth, but in general he has fulfilled his campaign promises.
The re-election could mark the end of the world liberal order and alliance systems promoted by the United States.
Having said that, it would be wrong who would think that one could expect merely another four years of the same. If Trump is reelected, he will most likely behave even more radically and without limitations. He will have been convinced to be "the chosen one", after having resisted the perfidious attacks of the opposition, the old system, the media and "the deep state." Who would be left to stop him, or at least try to correct his course?
With all the disastrous implications it would have, the idea of a "second term of Trump" has not made the European Union out of its frustrating habit of continuing to do business as usual. EU officials are in negotiations on the budget terms of one billion euros for the next seven years of the community bloc.
Part of this task involves a new battle for the allocation of regional funds and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) after the materialization of Brexit. Trump's presidency has been a tiny factor in these efforts. And although for a European sovereignty strategy, new financial commitments would necessarily have to be made, that particular issue has barely appeared on the table.
Instead, within the European Council, national short-term interests have prevailed. As if in the last three years the world had not fundamentally changed. It would have been possible to think that the priorities of the European rulers would be adjusted to Trump's presidency, the rise of China as a global power, Russia's commitment to military power and rearmament, and the rise of the digital economy. But no: interested bargaining dominates the agenda in Brussels and the national capitals of Europe (which have always played a fundamental role in the governance of the Union. Strategic thinking and a sense of historical responsibility are, at most, ideas that They leave for the end.
In Brussels, national short-term interests prevail. There are more important issues than the CAP
The worst part is that this state of affairs persists despite the fact that today there is no more important issue for Europe than the presidential elections in the United States. Europeans should be preparing for the worst scenario. The key question, for Europe and the West in more general terms, is whether NATO can survive a second term of Trump.
If NATO ceases to exist, suddenly Europe and the North Atlantic region would face a huge security crisis. In fact, without the transatlantic link provided by the Alliance, we could hardly speak of "the West." And certainly Europe would not be able to handle its own security.
In Brussels, but in particular in the European Council, the main agenda should reflect the fact that the strategic foundations of the 21st century are now being laid, right now. There is much more at stake than the result of the upcoming elections in any specific European country.
Far from me doubting the importance of regional funds and the Common Agricultural Policy. But with all due respect to the frugal net contributors and the poorest target countries that depend on these disbursements from the European Union, there are simply major issues that It is necessary to address. Europe's own security and sovereignty are now in danger. The EU must ask itself if it is prepared to do whatever it takes to remain an independent and united actor in the common interest of all Europeans. Otherwise, its viability as a democratic and sovereign entity in control of its own destiny will be questioned (and, consequently, will be tested) as never before.
Joschka Fischer, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Vice Chancellor of Germany between 1998 and 2005, was leader of the German Green Party for almost 20 years.
© Project Syndicate, 2020.
Translation by David Meléndez Tormen.
www.project-syndicate.org
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