[Legislative Council Election. Depth] With more than half of the popular seats, Hong Kong will change?

weekly

Written by: Xue Xue

2020-03-18 20:28

The seventh Legislative Council election will be held in September. In the anti-government and anti-constitutional system in the storm of anti-revision legislation, the pan-democracy plans to go to the next city after the comprehensive reversal of the district board elections last year, and strive for more than half of the seats in the Legislative Council elections. Based on the comments and data analysis of various parties, it is not impossible for the pan Ambassador to win the dominance of the Legislative Council; however, compared to the hotly debated topic, "How do Pan Ambassadors seize power", it is more worthy of consideration- Under the "administrative leadership", will they continue to "oppose everything" to deal with the SAR and the central government, or will they actively play the role of parliament to reform society and people's livelihood and promote true dual universal suffrage? And when the central government is determined to exercise its "full governance power" system, will Hong Kong change as a result of the "seizure of power" among the general public?

Based on the comments and data analysis of various parties, it is not impossible for the pan-people to take the lead of the Legislative Council. (Profile picture / Photo by Lin Ruoqin)

Over half of the people are actually martyred

Difficult to do after half

Earlier this month, Zhao Mingming, Lin Siming, and Cai Ziying, three Hong Kong Education University scholars, used computer simulation and statistical analysis to analyze the results of the 2019 District Council elections, and performed 1,000 simulated calculations on the Legislative Council elections to obtain the two major institutional and pan-Public The best number of direct seats in the camp for direct elections in the region; the results show that if the 2016 legislative council election strategy is followed, and panams can drive voters to vote with the most ideal ballots, panams are expected to obtain 37.9 out of 70 seats seat. Former Democratic Party President Yang Sen also said in an exclusive interview with "Hong Kong 01" that Panmin has effectively won one more seat in the direct elections in Kowloon East and New Territories West, and is expected to capture the catering, engineering, wholesale and retail sectors, and performance out of bounds Together with winning one seat each in the district board (first) and the district board (second) commonly known as the "super district board", a maximum of 37 seats may be obtained in total.

Riding against the momentum of anti-government and anti-restructuring storms, the democrats are now clamoring for the "Legislative Council". Although they are not too divided on the path of "more than half of the seats," the goal of the second half is divergent. For example, a private press conference proposed to paralyze the government. The founder of the Central People's Republic of China, Dai Yaoting, said that he would force the government to negotiate with the general public, making Beijing unable to Manipulation of the parliament; the legal profession of the Legislative Council, which is a professional member of the parliament and a member of the Citizen Party, Guo Rongji believes that it is possible to strive for political space within the system to promote true dual universal suffrage and improve government governance-"how to govern" is indeed Issues that the people have to ponder.

We might as well try sandbox deductions. If the majority of the people get half the seats, what kind of political situation will Hong Kong face?

Guo Rongzheng, a member of the legislative council and a member of the Citizens' Party, a professional parliamentarian, believes that it is possible to strive for political space within the system to promote universal suffrage and improve government administration. (Profile picture)

Scenario 1: Panmin has obtained more than half of the seats, but not more than half of its functional constituencies

If the general public obtains more than half of the seats, even if the functional constituency does not exceed half, it can theoretically still lead the election of the chairmen and vice-chairmen of the Legislative Council General Assembly, the Internal Committee, the Finance Committee, and the various business committees. Mr James TO, Member of the Democratic Party, has a better chance to become chairman of the Legislative Council. With all this, it is foreseeable that future government proposals may be difficult.

At the same time, democrats have the right to veto bills, bills or amendments proposed by the government, such as Article 23 of the Basic Law, but they may not be able to pass amendments to bills, bills or government bills proposed by members because of the Basic Law. Annex II stipulates that they must be approved by functional constituencies and direct elections by districts. If the Legislative Council (Powers and Privileges) Ordinance is to be launched to investigate individual incidents or officials, or amend the rules of procedure, I am afraid that has not been possible.

In addition, under the "administrative-led" principle, Article 74 of the Basic Law states: "Members of the Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall submit draft laws in accordance with the provisions of this Law and in accordance with legal procedures. Or government operators can be proposed individually or jointly by members of the Legislative Council. Any person involved in government policy must obtain the written consent of the Chief Executive before proposing. "In other words, even if the general public obtains more than half of the seats in the Legislative Council, as long as their proposal content touches The Chief Executive still has the right to veto public expenditures, political systems, government operations, and government policies.

Even if the pan-democrats have obtained more than half of the legislature, the Chief Executive still has the right to veto as long as the content of their proposals touches public expenditure, the political system, government operations, and government policies. (Profile picture / Photo by Li Zetong)

However, precisely because the parliamentary parliament has more chips, their relationship with the SAR government is even more delicate-whether to negotiate with the government to try to improve the space for people's livelihood policies, or continue to shout political slogans, vows and The Hong Kong government broke a dead net and also looked at the political wisdom of the people.

Scenario 2: Panmin people get more than half of the seats and more than half of the seats in functional constituencies

If the general public obtains more than half of the seats and the functional constituencies are over half, it will not only be able to pass private bills proposed by Members, but also veto amendments to government bills such as the Budget. Furthermore, according to Article 52 of the Basic Law, if the Legislative Council refuses to pass a budget or other important bills, and the Chief Executive dissolves the Legislative Council, assuming the re-elected Legislative Council refuses to pass the relevant bills again, the Chief Executive must Resignation — therefore, there is more room for struggling between the people and the government — the two sides will appropriately adopt some strategic compromises in exchange for the promotion of social reforms, or will they resolutely oppose each other, and finally "grab speculation" together, absolutely The important exam questions that lie in front of everyone.

In addition, if Pan Ambassadors can obtain more than half of the seats in the functional constituencies of the Legislative Council, it is absolutely possible to achieve enough results to lead the election of the Chief Executive in the 2021 Election Committee. To the so-called "full governance." Ren Jianfeng, the former convener of Legal and Political Thoughts, wrote in a newspaper today (March 18), talking about Chen Jianmin (61), the founder of Occupy Central China who just released from prison. The people in the spectrum are respected and have good relations with the business community in Hong Kong (formerly an independent director of a listed company). They also have contacts with mainland intellectuals, civil society and "dove" officials. I believe that if he is the Chief Executive in the future, he will definitely promote "Great Reconciliation" in Hong Kong.

Regardless of whether the people in general can "rule in full power," Hong Kong seems unlikely to change. (Profile picture / Photo by Lu Yiming)

However, no matter whether the general public can "rule in full power", Hong Kong seems difficult to change. In fairness, compared with the establishment, many pan-political politicians do have a policy idea that can better understand people's sentiment. If they "take power", they can actively play the role of parliament, thereby reforming the people's livelihood and promoting the real Double universal suffrage, I believe there is no excuse for the central government to excuse. However, if they continue the anti-legislative storm that ignores the well-being of the society, and hold the "all-passing" mentality of "communicating all" and insisting on "opposing everything" to "paralyze the government", it is obviously a misjudgement of the central government to actively promote "one country, two systems" "Determination.

At the end of October last year, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Adhering to and Improving the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics and Promoting the Modernization of the National Governance System and Governance Ability. "Peaceful reunification", which mentions "improving the system for the central government to exercise full administrative power over the special administrative region in accordance with the Constitution and the Basic Law", including the system and mechanism for the appointment and removal of the chief executive and principal officials by the central government, and Interpretation system, the legal system and enforcement mechanism for safeguarding national security in the Special Administrative Region, and the system in which the Chief Executive is accountable to the central government. It is reported that following the succession of the former Secretary of the Shanxi Provincial Party Committee Luo Huining and the former Secretary of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee Xia Baolong to replace the directors of the China United Office and the Hong Kong and Macau Office, and clarifying the affiliation between the former and the latter, the central government has begun a comprehensive reform of Hong Kong and Macau. The mechanism will also be gradually implemented in accordance with the law. If he is in power someday, maybe he can better understand that "politics is the art of compromise."

More in-depth articles on "Hong Kong 01":

【Coronavirus disease. Depth] Why Hong Kong does not have Tang Feng——Taiwan Genius IT Minister envied by all countries

【Coronavirus disease. Depth] "Fake News" How could Jedi fight back without killing the blood?

[Pneumonia mask. Depth] Online shopping masks unveil the road of Hong Kong's e-commerce development

[MTR Derailment. Depth] Why do public organizations become "independent kingdoms" without accountability?

[Depth] Tens of thousands of people touted in online public trials-How can a 13-year-old "chicken" become a yellow and blue tearing victim?

【Coronavirus disease. Depth] Don't "transmit poison" in the media-what is more terrible than viruses is stigma!

[Depth] Forced "oral sex", 32 bar, 10 children besieged-who has been bullied by the child party?

[District Council. Depth] What other "riding" motions are there besides the park naming farce?

【Coronavirus disease. Depth] Anti-quarantine facilities unceasingly expose Hong Kong ’s three backward society

【pneumonia. Depth] For the sake of "revolution", we can sacrifice grassroots interests at the expense of speculation?

[Wuhan Pneumonia. Depth] Reflections on Receiving People from Hubei Harbor

[Wuhan Pneumonia. Depth] Reflections on the rumors behind "Blind Robbery"

[Pneumonia mask. Depth] "Mask mask shortage" This economics class Hong Kong government perfectly demonstrates the negative teaching material

01 depth

In-depth coverage of Legislative Council elections