[New Crown Pneumonia] Economic Worries Cannot Overshadow the Needs of Science

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Written by: Comment Editor

2020-03-19 07:00

The epidemic has affected many industries in Hong Kong, and society expects economic activity to resume as soon as possible. On March 17, the government announced that the unemployment rate in Hong Kong rose by 0.3 percentage points to a 9-year high of 3.7% and the catering industry unemployment rate was even higher to 7.5%. Among them, tourism, shopping, catering, and pharmacy businesses, which are closely related to the Mainland, bear the brunt.

Under the prevention of the epidemic, Hong Kong has compulsorily isolated mainland immigrants since February 8, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of mainland immigrants. The Tourism Development Bureau announced the number of visitors to Hong Kong in February on Monday (16th). The total number of visitors dropped to 199,000 in the whole month, a decrease of 96% year-on-year, which is only half of the worst month in the SARS period in 2003. There were only 3,300 people. Some citizens operating the Sheung Shui Pharmacy said that since the epidemic, about 60% of the Sheung Shui Pharmacy has been closed.

In view of this situation, both the industry leaders and citizens hope to resume customs clearance and flow of people as soon as possible to ensure their livelihood. He Yansheng, a senior researcher at the Lingang Shanghai-Hong Kong Economic Policy Research Institute, mentioned on Sunday (15th) in the Hong Kong and Taiwan program "City Forum" that if the mainland has not confirmed a local case within 28 days, Hong Kong should reopen its mouth. Mainlanders who come to Hong Kong do not need to be quarantined, which stimulates a "retaliation rebound" in the local economy.

Entry risk is a scientific issue

Indeed, the number of locally diagnosed cases in the Mainland is gradually decreasing. The National Health Commission announced on Monday (March 16) that local infection cases in multiple provinces have been cleared. On the 17th (Tuesday), the People's Daily announced that there had been no new local cases for five consecutive days except Hubei.

However, it is worth noting that a second round of outbreaks has begun overseas. Official government data show that the Mainland is facing the danger of repatriation of confirmed cases reported overseas. For example, 16 new cases were confirmed in the Mainland on the 15th, and 12 of them were imported from overseas. If the customs clearance is easily opened and the quarantine is cancelled, will the inward import of invisible patients from the Mainland flow into Hong Kong, increasing the pressure on Hong Kong's epidemic prevention? These questions need to be answered by scientists, especially infectious disease scholars and public health experts. Even if all sectors of the society have reasonable concerns about the economy, they must not be taken lightly, and they must be cautious about measures such as opening the border.

On the other hand, Hong Kong society should be more aware that the "seizure" of the Mainland has more exposed Hong Kong's long-standing economic structural problems. Taking the service catering, tourism, shopping and other service businesses as examples, the problem of over-reliance on mainland tourists and the singular industrial structure was exposed under the impact of the epidemic. According to expert research and judgment, the epidemic will last for more than a year, and it is impossible for some industries in Hong Kong to not restructure. And even if the epidemic is over, it is difficult for mainland residents to immediately change their current consumption habits, and it is impossible to immediately resume the frequency of travel and shopping in Hong Kong. This kind of thinking that only eats the old one is tantamount to drinking and quenching thirst. The epidemic exposed the pain points of the past economic structural disadvantages, and it was a good time to turn the crisis into a turning point. As we pointed out earlier, Hong Kong should promote industrial reform as soon as possible and get rid of the current single model of industrial institutions.

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