The Corona crisis also has a firm grip on the economy in Bavaria. The damage could be enormous. Bernd Ohlmann, Managing Director of the Bavarian Trade Association (HBE), about the consequences.
- The corona crisis is seriously damaging the economy in Bavaria.
- The Bavarian Trade Association is already expecting bankruptcies in April .
- An industry in the Free State is particularly affected by the lockdown .
Lockdown in Bavaria: Since Thursday, all shops that are not relevant to supply have had to close their shop for almost two weeks. We spoke to Bernd Ohlmann , Managing Director of the Bavarian Trade Association (HBE) , about the consequences.
The pedestrian zones are extinct, most shops are closed. The only option left to people is to shop online. Are online retailers the big winners of the corona crisis?
Interestingly, not. Sure, it may be the case that one or two euros is now also flowing into online retail. At the beginning of the year, we assumed that we would have sales of eight billion euros in online trade in Bavaria this year. You can expect that we will surpass that.
At what time?
We expect an increase of ten percent in online business. But: That is why golden times have not yet dawned in online retail. Many consumers are unsettled, and consumer sentiment is generally not the very best. The online retailers will also feel this.
Nevertheless, many customers who have been loyal to their local specialty store could now discover convenient online shopping for themselves and turn their backs on the retailer around the corner in the long run.
I do not believe that. Other crises, such as the BSE crisis in the 1990s or the crisis with dioxin-contaminated eggs, have shown that customer behavior returns to normal after a short time. My hope is that it will be the same this time.
The question remains how many stores will there be after the Corona crisis *.
Unfortunately we have to assume that the first bankruptcies will be in Bavaria in April. Textile retail is currently very badly affected - alongside food retailing, the largest sub-sector in Bavaria. Now that spring fashion has been ordered, the shops are no longer allowed to open. How should you pay for the goods you have ordered? It is a very dramatic development.
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How can the problem be solved?
I can only appeal to landlords to accommodate the rental business. Because the companies themselves are very healthy.
What is the situation like in Upper Bavaria?
This is where retailers are particularly hard hit: a large part of the turnover here comes from tourists, and they have been away for weeks. This affects small, owner-managed specialist companies that have been in family hands for generations and are now on the verge of going out. This is also a very dramatic development for inner cities.
Can it be quantified how violent the bankruptcy wave will be?
No. However, we know from our figures that we have over 40,000 small retail businesses in Bavaria. For many of them, it will now be difficult to survive the dry spell.
Will those who survive the crisis early on who have been on two tracks and also sell online as well as the retail store?
These traders can at least look a little more calmly towards the crisis. In Bavaria, that's about 30 percent of businesses that also sell online - either through a web shop or through portals such as Amazon or E-Bay. But even these companies will only be able to compensate for a small part of their losses. At the moment, all dealers have the water up to their necks.
The only exception is the food retail trade.
Right. There is no end of business here. However: these are all early purchases. Those who now have a hundred rolls of toilet paper at home will buy fewer of them in the coming weeks.
But it doesn't look like that at the moment. Many shelves in the supermarkets are empty shortly after the shop opens.
People shop even though there is no reason for it. All goods are available. Even more: We have taken precautions with producers, industry and freight forwarders to shorten delivery times and increase delivery quantities. Where previously three trucks came a day, now twice as many vehicles come. Only the hamster purchases ensure that there are occasional bottlenecks. I can only appeal that people will soon give up the hamster again.
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