[New pneumonia] Liang Zhuowei: Research reveals that invisible patients may account for 40% of the epidemic can be 18 months long

Social News

Written by: Cui Zheng Zheng

2020-03-28 02:10

The outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia (commonly known as Wuhan pneumonia) continued. There were 65 new confirmed cases on Friday (27th) in Hong Kong, a single-day high, and the total number of cases increased to 519.

Liang Zhuowei, an expert consultant to the government ’s anti-epidemic steering committee and dean of the University of Hong Kong Medical School, said in an interview with the media that the latest research from the University of Hong Kong shows that invisible patients may account for 40% of the total number of infections. To wait until the epidemic in Hong Kong has subsided, it may eventually require that more than half of the population, that is, about 3 to 4 million people have antibodies; another option is to have vaccines available as soon as possible, but only as soon as the end of the year.

He believes that this outbreak is different from SARS in 2003 (atypical pneumonia). It is a long-term "marathon" battle, which may last for 18 months. He urges the public to have tenacity and "grind their teeth." Keep social distance until a vaccine comes out, "If the medical system collapses, the epidemic will be unimaginable!"

If you see that the epidemic situation is more serious, you will lag behind 10 to 14 days. When the time comes, you will be out of control. Even if Hong Kong becomes a dead city and there is no one on the street, the medical system will face collapse. It is too late!

According to Liang Zhuowei, invisible patients may account for 40% of the total number of infections. (Photo / Photo by Liang Pengwei)

Immediate virus reproduction rate continues to be higher than 1 beam: a major outbreak in Hong Kong

In a cable TV interview, Liang Zhuowei pointed out that from March to now, the instant reproduction rate of the new pneumonia virus has continued to be higher than 1, that is, each patient can spread more than one person. He believes that if the reproduction rate does not fall below the level of 1, the days of outbreaks in Hong Kong will not be far off. He believes that the epidemic has become severe recently due to a large number of imported cases. In addition, Hong Kong people are getting bored and tired of maintaining social distance, and their vigilance has decreased. He even more bluntly stated that there would be a 10 to 14 day lag in the reproduction rate, and he was worried that the current data only reflected the situation 10 days ago.

Liang Zhuowei said that there are two types of invisible patients. The first one will develop the disease later in the incubation period, but it may continue to spread the virus to others. He pointed out that according to the latest research from the University of Hong Kong, such patients may account for up to 40% of the total number of infections. Asymptomatic people who have never had an onset of infection are even more vulnerable, and the proportion of such patients is more diverse.

He believes that Hong Kong must avoid sporadic chains of communication, otherwise the number of cases will rise geometrically. He bluntly said that in order to reduce the epidemic in Hong Kong, it may eventually require more than half of the population, that is, about 3 to 4 million people have antibodies.

▼ Epidemic prevention banned more than four people to close multiple facilities ▼

+10

+9

+8

Waiting for vaccine to be released

Liang Zhuowei continued that Hong Kong should try its best to minimize the number of confirmed cases and delay the outbreak until vaccines are available. "The fastest is nine months later, even at the end of the year, and possibly the summer vacation next year." He admitted that this was a lasting one. During the war, "I ’m like a saxophone, it ’s finished in 3 or 4 months, and I ’m a marathon." Therefore, Hong Kong people must have tenacity and "tighten their teeth" to maintain social distance, at least until the peak of the return tide. Two or three weeks later.

Liang Zhuowei said that the medical system in some foreign countries collapsed, and the demand for intensive treatment equipment was far higher than the supply. Patients did not have a ventilator to support breathing. Hong Kong must try to control the epidemic situation. All measures that can reduce the flow of people should be implemented. It ’s more serious to do it first, and it ’s 10 to 14 days behind. When it ’s too late, even if Hong Kong becomes a dead city and there is no one on the street, the medical system will face collapse. It ’s too late! ”

Retrieving Octopus data to check outbreak

He also pointed out that Hong Kong had used Octopus to assist in tracking down the epidemic during SARS, but this time when he requested the Octopus usage data, he still could not get a response after 7 days. "Octopus data can tell us how much Hong Kong people have peer-to-peer usage. It ’s high, and it ’s no use after 17 years. ”He believes that the mainland has also used WeChat and Alipay data to fight the epidemic, but Hong Kong currently does not use these data, which puzzles him.

Liang Zhuowei believes that the epidemic has a chance to last for 18 months, and encourages the public to have tenacity and "to bite the teeth" to maintain social distance until a vaccine is available. (Profile picture / Photo by Yu Junliang)

[New Crown Pneumonia] France Extends National Closing Order to April 15

[New crown pneumonia] Limit the number of guests and keep a distance between the dining tables.

[New Crown Pneumonia] South China Morning Post SCMP staff confirmed that the UK did not go to work after returning to Hong Kong

[La Liga] Wu Lei's wife also infected with new crown pneumonia, interview said "more patriotic after going abroad"

The University of Hong Kong, Leung Cheuk Wai, New Crown Pneumonia