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Editor's Note: César Grajales has 10 years of experience in different fields of the world of politics. He is the founder of the consulting firm Bridge 305 INC. He is also a registered lobbyist and coalition director for the NGO The Free Initiative. He participates weekly as a political analyst in different media. Opinions in this column are from the author.
(CNN Spanish) - Today I remembered Florentino Ariza and Fermina Daza, characters immortalized by Gabriel García Márquez in their acclaimed novel "Love in the Time of Cholera", and yes, they inspired me for the title of this column.
But don't you think that in the last days we have become a Gabo novel? With a reality so difficult to believe but so real, so tangible. Entire cities and countries closing their doors, as if they were castles from medieval times, - no one enters and no one leaves without authorization. Schools without classes, postponed exams, bars and restaurants closed, curfew, the police in the streets, empty supermarkets. Today, an innocent sneeze or a small cough generates accusing looks and fear almost at the level of thinking about the word bomb inside an airplane. This, dear readers, is our reality, our "magical realism". And how long will we be like this? Who knows! Because if this were not enough, our enemy is invisible and moves fast. However, life goes on. Half, but still.
This situation of the coronavirus has become a surprise test that has tested the leadership of all the heads of state in the world. Some agree with their decisions and others criticize them, but the reality is that all of them, from right or left, face the greatest challenge of their public careers, and only in a few months or years will we know if their decisions were correct.
In the United States, apart from dealing with this health emergency, we also have presidential, congressional, some Senate seats, and many local elections. And without a doubt, the coronavirus will be the final exam for many politicians.
These elections in the times of the coronavirus have been quite a challenge in the United States. On March 17, the most recent Democratic Party primaries were held to elect the candidate to face President Donald Trump on November 3. Of course, if not, some surprise changes our plan; At this point nothing seems impossible to me anymore. However, the United States Constitution prohibits the president from canceling or postponing presidential elections. Three states kept their voting points open despite covid-19: Illinois, Arizona, and Florida. A fourth state, Ohio, also had elections scheduled, but the governor decided to postpone them at the last minute and there is no certainty when they will happen now, possibly on June 2. The Republicans also had primaries, but in this electoral cycle it has been a kind of mere formality procedure, since it is known that President Trump will be the candidate, officially nominated by the party during the Republican Convention to be held in Charlotte, North Carolina in August. In fact, in the votes of the 17, Trump officially managed to reach the number of Republican delegates he needs to win the candidacy at said convention.
States that kept their voting centers open faced challenges such as poll workers who quit or did not show up, voting points that had to be relocated due to their proximity to hospitals or assistance centers for older adults, low face-to-face participation, etc. However, despite these challenges, on the Democratic side, former Vice President Joe Biden managed to win these three states, bringing him, almost with complete certainty, to the Democratic candidacy, which will be official at the July convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. For Senator Bernie Sanders, losing these three states means that he has virtually no chance of winning, and Florida was decisive for him as it is a state that assigns a high number of Democratic delegates. Florida voters did not favor him. Perhaps it was partly to praise aspects of the Cuban communist revolution, a comment he made at the end of February on the CBS program 60 minutes, something that did not go down well with the democratic leaders of the state who soon condemned his comments and distanced themselves of the. At the close of this column, Senator Sanders continues as a pre-candidate although without real possibilities, and probably in the next few days he will announce the end of his campaign.
But what comes next for Democratic and Republican candidates in these elections? In particular, I believe that the focus on the subject of this pandemic is important. People are hungry for information about the al covid-19 and how political leaders will generate plans to help mitigate this potential economic crisis, and in this regard President Trump has better prospects than the Democratic candidate, since as head of state , their decisions immediately affect the electorate. It is something very similar to what happened with former presidents George W. Bush with the twin towers and Barack Obama with the real estate and financial crisis, both re-elected, in part, for the support of their constituents in handling these crises. On the other hand, for the Democratic Party candidate, probably Joe Biden, all he can do is comment on how he would deal with a situation like this. Another disadvantage that I see for Biden is that at the moment he cannot hold mass meetings. Recall that the CDC does not recommend meetings of more than 50 people, and it is crucial for any candidate in an election contest that their voters see him. However, in the same way that this situation puts President Trump in a privileged position of leadership, it also puts him in the first line of fire if the electorate perceives that his decisions have not been appropriate, and remember that - in politics - perception is important.
The letters are out, there is a lot left for November 3. Anything can happen in our "magical realism" and these choices in the times of the coronavirus.