An American infectious disease expert, advisor to Donald Trump on the coronavirus, spoke with caution this Sunday of a range of 100,000 to 200,000 potential deaths in the United States linked to Covid-19. A long-term forecast when the threshold of 2000 deaths - including a baby - was crossed the day before in this country now the most affected in the world in number of infected identified.
"Depending on what we see today, I would say between 100,000 and 200,000," said Dr. Anthony Fauci on CNN of the possible number of deaths. He also mentioned "millions of possible cases".
Cautious, the director of the national institute of infectious diseases wanted to recall that the models were always based on different assumptions. "They give the worst and the best of scenarios. And generally the reality is somewhere in the middle, ”he explained.
Over 125,000 cases reported in the United States
“I have never seen, among the diseases on which I had to work, a model whose worst case was realized. They are always overestimated, "he added.
According to Johns Hopkins University, the count of which references, more than 125,000 Covid-19 positive cases have been officially reported so far in the United States, a record worldwide. The number of deaths (2,191) has almost doubled since Wednesday.
The University of Washington medical school predicts a peak in the epidemic around mid-April in the United States, with death rates stagnating around 80,000 as of June, following the current trajectory.
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According to their model, this number increases from a minimum of 38,000 deaths to a maximum of 162,000. In comparison, the flu killed 34,000 people in the country during the epidemic in 2018-2019.