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OB election in Munich 2020: survey was wrong - runoff forecast seems clear

2020-03-29T07:12:24.657Z


Forecasts for the 2020 local elections in Munich show that not all expectations were met on election day.


Forecasts for the 2020 local elections in Munich show that not all expectations were met on election day.

  • Local elections were also held in Munich on March 15, 2020 .
  • According to the forecasts, Dieter Reiter is clearly ahead in the OB election.
  • The Greens were previously expected to be the strongest force in the city council.
  • The first results from Munich, like those from all over Bavaria, will be published on election evening.
  • On election day, we will keep you up to date in our news tickers for the 2020 local elections in Bavaria * and Munich *.

+++ Results OB election in Munich +++

+++ results city council election Munich +++

Update of March 16: In Munich there is a runoff election for the post of mayor. Dieter Reiter (SPD) takes office as incumbent against Kristina Frank (CSU) because he missed the absolute majority of votes in the first ballot - albeit only relatively narrowly at around 48 percent. His challenger was clearly behind Reiter. This does not have to mean a preliminary decision, but the polls before the local elections in Munich saw the OB as a big favorite .

Dieter Reiter was already seen between 39 percent and 49 percent in the surveys, while the institutes saw Kristina Frank at a maximum of 16 percent. She was able to increase this figure to over 21 percent on election evening. In the runoff, however, riders can hope for greater gains. The voters of the Greens candidate Katrin Habenschaden made up over 20 percent of the voters in Munich. It is expected that the majority of Greens voters will vote for the SPD incumbent and not for CSU candidate Frank.

On election day, March 29, you will receive all information on the run-off election in the local election ticker for Bavaria * and the local election ticker for Munich *.

Forecast for the OB election in Munich: surprise by CSU candidate

Update from 10.42 p.m .: Many votes can still be counted in Munich. The first overall result of the city council election is still to be expected at night. Which candidates on the lists received the most votes will not be known until Monday. The counting of the district committee elections will also no longer be completed on election evening. As soon as the results are known, you will find the exact numbers under the links given above.

Update from 9:47 pm: After around half of the 1,274 areas have been counted, an expectation of the outcome of the city ​​council election is confirmed : In the current forecast, the Greens are in front - with 29.5 percent. The CSU currently follows with 24.9 percent, the SPD is 22.7 percent.

Update from 9:16 p.m .: Dieter Reiter (SPD) has to face the runoff in two weeks. The Munich OB will most likely compete against Kristina Frank (CSU). With 21.4 percent of the vote, she is now clearly ahead of Katrin Habenschaden (Greens). Have damage more than three hours after the polling stations closed only 20.5 percent of the counted votes. The current forecasts for the local elections in Munich hardly give her a chance for second place. Previously, it was often expected that damage to property would triumph against Frank, in order to then challenge Dieter Reiter.

Update from 7.47 p.m .: In the meantime, the forecasts for the local elections in Munich show that Dieter Reiter must defend his office as mayor in a runoff election . The most important question is: Who will compete against the incumbent? Kristina Frank (CSU) is 20.9 percent and is just ahead of the third-placed candidate according to the count. Katrin Habenschaden (Greens) currently has 20.7 percent and can still move up to second place at any time.

Forecast for the OB election in Munich: tab in front - but decision has not yet been made

Update from 7:03 p.m .: The current forecasts for the OB election in Munich show the incumbent Dieter Reiter (SPD) clearly at the front. While the counting is still ongoing, it is currently just under 48.5 percent of the vote. According to the forecast, Kristina Frank (CSU) achieved 21.3 percent, Katrin Habenschaden 19.8 percent. All current figures on the OB election and the later final results from Munich can be found under the links above . Such a result would result in a runoff election.

Update from 18.32: A current forecast for the turnout in Munich looks positive. By 4 p.m., 46.6 percent of those entitled to vote had participated in the local elections, including the postal voters. In the last local elections six years ago, it was only 38.4 percent of those entitled to vote at the same time.

Counting of local elections in Munich is ongoing

Update from 6 p.m .: The counting of votes begins, in Munich it is the turn of the mayor's election before the votes of the city ​​council election are counted. As soon as there are forecasts of the outcome of the various elections in the 2020 municipal election in Munich, you will find the current figures on Merkur.de *. Complete results from the state capital can be found under the links given above.

Update of March 15, 5:25 p.m .: The forecasts for the local elections in Munich seem clear - but there are still uncertainties before the polling stations close. Although Dieter Reiter is heading towards re-election according to surveys on the OB election, it is not yet clear whether he can get over 50 percent of the votes. If he misses this value, it goes to the runoff. The race for the post of mayor would then be completely open again. The Greens were recently predicted that they could even put the strongest faction in the city council - several percentage points ahead of the SPD and CSU.

Video: OB Dieter Reiter (SPD) at the vote count in Munich-Riem

Hammer before local elections in Munich: latest forecast - AfD result "terrifying"

Update - last poll: The Munich Greens are facing a historic election success in the city council in the 2020 municipal election . According to an INSA survey commissioned by tz (see below), they can count on 27 percent of the vote in the local elections and would be the strongest parliamentary group in the town hall.

The CSU and SPD would each get 23 percent . For comparison: In the 2014 local elections, the Greens received 16.6 percent, the SPD reached 30.8 percent and the CSU 32.6 percent.

According to the survey, the FDP would reach four percent , which would be about the result of 2014 (3.4 percent). The free voters were three percent (2014: 2.7 percent) - just like the ÖDP (2014: 2.5). The left would reach four percent (2014: 2.4 percent), the Bavarian party would get three percent (2014: 0.9 percent). The AfD is seven percent in the INSA survey (1009 participants, February 19-26), which would be stronger than in 2014 when it came to 2.5 percent.

The result of the AfD is terrifying, says Green Party leader Florian Roth. "We will do everything we can to ensure that there is voter turnout that means that the democratic parties are far ahead." The result of the Greens, however, is positive for Roth: "We feel confirmed."

Local election 2020: Pretzl fears red-red-green left-wing alliance according to poll

SPD parliamentary group leader Christian Müller assumes that his comrades will get some more, "also in view of the good values ​​for our OB." The survey shows: Reiter has the best chance of choosing the OB (regardless of the city council election), the executive chair Defend in the town hall: It clearly ranks ahead of Katrin Habenschaden (Greens) and Kristina Frank (CSU).

FDP chief Michael Mattar sees only a snapshot in the survey. The right to vote also enables the distribution of votes among individual candidates, regardless of the party: "Everything is still possible."

CSU parliamentary group leader Manuel Pretzl: “In some surveys the Greens are at the front, in others the CSU. Let's just wait and see. But what worries me is that there is a real danger that a red-red-green left-wing alliance will form after March 15 - that would be catastrophic for Munich. "

By the way: You can also read all the latest news on the local elections in Bavaria in our news ticker. An overview of the whole of Bavaria is provided by the Bayern ticker and the topic page on local elections.

Of course, the people of Bavaria have very individual reasons for choosing to vote. Some of them show up in a street poll before the local election *.

Forecast of the OB election in Munich: OB Reiter's chances - and those of the competition

Update, March 2, 2020: Dieter Reiter (SPD) will accompany an anti-AfD demo on March 6 and is the clear favorite in the race in the OB election. This is the result of the current INSA survey on local elections in Munich on behalf of tz, Münchner Merkur and 95.5 Charivari. The incumbent would therefore get 49 percent of the vote in the first ballot. Katrin Habenschaden (Greens) is forecast 17 percent, while Kristina Frank (CSU) reaches 16 percent.

Are you still undecided? Then we bring OB rider, challenger Habenschaden and Frank onto a stage for you. The candidate duel will be broadcast live on Thursday evening (March 5th).

Municipal election surveys / forecasts: Mayor election Munich

institute

date

Dieter Reiter (SPD)

Katrin Habenschaden (Greens)

Kristina Frank (CSU)

Insa (Mercury, tz)

March 2, 2020

49.00%

17.00%

16.00%

GMS (17:30 Sat.1 Bavaria)

February 27, 2020

39.00%

23.00%

16.00%

AZ trend (evening newspaper)

January 13, 2020

41.58%

17.93%

13.59%

OB election poll in Munich: So are OB Reiter's chances - and those of the competition

Munich - The local elections in Bavaria are getting closer - on March 15 , 2020 , elections will take place in the Free State. An election in the Bavarian capital is likely to be particularly exciting: the mayor is elected in Munich .

Among other things, the three promising OB candidates from the SPD, CSU and Greens are available. The favorites Dieter Reiter (SPD), Kristina Frank (CSU) and Katrin Habenschaden (Greens) want to hold the office.

Forecast OB election 2020 in Munich: Exclusive survey shows a large lead of a candidate

Mayor Dieter Reiter (SPD) has legitimate hopes for his re-election , the Greens could become the strongest force in the city council . These are the main results of a representative survey on the local elections on March 15, which the opinion research institute INSA carried out on behalf of tz , Münchner Merkur and 95.5 Charivari . The survey took place between February 19 and 25. 1009 people took part.

OB Reiter therefore comes first with a big lead . Even an absolute majority in the first ballot does not seem to be excluded. Katrin Habenschaden from the Greens would reach the runoff election, but only by a slight margin over Kristina Frank (CSU). So there should be an exciting race for second place . In addition to Reiter, Habenschaden and Frank, there are eleven other OB candidates. According to INSA, these do not play a role. All other applicants land under five percent. According to the survey, Reiter can score across all party borders , not just among his regular SPD electorate.

+

The top candidates for the OB election in Munich: (from left) Katrin Habenschaden (Greens), Dieter Reiter (SPD) and Kristina Frank (CSU).

© picture alliance / dpa / Sven Hoppe

INSA also examined voting behavior differentiated by age group and gender. Interesting figures can also be reported here. You can read all the details and the exact figures in our newspaper on Monday.

Also interesting: Parliamentary elections are already taking place in Israel. In advance, serious allegations against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made headlines.

Poll: The Greens could become the strongest force

The city council election was also part of the survey. The crucial question: is it enough for the current city hall government of the SPD and CSU to win a majority? According to INSA, it doesn't look like that. The Greens would be the strongest force. The SPD and CSU would be on the same level, but with respect to the Greens. They could possibly choose their government partner - CSU or SPD. Because the race is very close, a third party might have to be included in a coalition. According to the survey, the AfD would come fourth.

These are the candidates for the city council election in Munich.

As the most important future topic, the respondents named “cheaper rents” by a huge margin. Women considered this topic to be even more urgent than men. This is followed by the areas of tram and subway expansion and, in third place, the desire for more green spaces.

OB election 2020 in Munich: According to the latest survey, a candidate has particularly good chances

As a recently published survey by the Hamburg institute GMS on behalf of “17:30 Sat.1 Bayern” showed, one candidate has particularly good chances of winning: the current incumbent OB Dieter Reiter. The SPD politician will probably have to face a competitor in a runoff .

According to the survey , 39 percent of the respondents would vote for riders . But he would need an absolute majority in the first round of the 2020 OB election in Munich, i.e. more than 50 percent of the votes.

Video: What tasks does the mayor have?

Munich: New poll on the mayor election - So many votes reached the OB candidates

Greens candidate Katrin Habenschaden got 23 percent of the votes in the GMS survey , Kristina Frank of the CSU got 16 percent. More than a fifth of the potential voters (22 percent) stated that they did not want to vote for any of the candidates or did not want to vote at all - or that they had not yet made a decision regarding the 2020 local elections in Munich.

For the survey , the Hamburg-based institute GMS asked for information about people in Munich by telephone.

OB election in Munich: Here you can see the candidates live in the video duel on March 5th

All those voters who are still undecided can also see the three OB favorites for Munich in the " Munich election arena ". Munich Merkur , tz and 95.5 Charivari invite you to this event in the press house on Bayerstrasse on Thursday , March 5 . Here you can follow the big panel discussion with the Munich OB candidates on March 5 in a live stream. In 2020, five lists will be included in a Munich municipal election for the first time: Who are Volt, mut, ZuBa, FAIR and Munich List?

Local elections in Munich: Survey gives Reiter opportunities

As early as mid-January, a survey by Munich's current mayor Dieter Reiter (SPD) had given good chances of a repetition in office. Despite a share of 17 percent undecided, the AZ trend of the Munich evening newspaper calculated 41.58 percent of the votes for the incumbent. Katrin Habenschaden (Greens) and Kristina Frank (CSU) came in far behind only 17.93 and 13.59 percent. Despite the disappointing forecasts, "everything is still there," said Frank, one is counting on a runoff election for the mayor's office in Munich .

According to the survey, voters are very interested in local elections

In general, the Munich candidates for the mayor election can hope for a high turnout , the Bavarian interest in the local election is still high, according to the "Bayerntrend". As the Bayerischer Rundfunk (BR) found out through a survey, three quarters of Bavaria are very interested (31 percent) or strongly (43 percent) in the upcoming local elections on March 15. It is of little importance for a quarter of the respondents (26 percent).

According to the survey, it is not the parties that are decisive, but rather the candidates themselves: 85 percent of the citizens make their choice in this way. Three quarters of Bavaria (75 percent) also state that they pay very close attention to the subject matter of the parties and lists available for election.

Voters have high confidence in local politicians

According to the “Bayerntrend”, Bavaria's local politicians also enjoy a high level of trust among voters. 69 percent of the polls in January indicated that they had a very high or high level of trust in their direct political representatives. At the state, federal and European levels, the trust values ​​are significantly lower at 43, 23 and 21 percent.

In addition to the current forecasts for Munich, we also keep you up to date with what the surveys in Nuremberg, Augsburg, Regensburg, Ingolstadt and Passau say.

Corona-Hammer shortly before the local elections in Munich: The city of Munich took drastic measures to ensure that the election was “at risk”.

nema / ms with dpa

* merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2020-03-29

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