The corona virus continues to spread. But when is the peak of infections in Germany reached and the numbers are falling again? Scientists are now making a first prediction.
- The corona virus * continues to spread in Germany.
- Measures are intended to postpone the pandemic's climax.
- Scientists are now daring to predict when the highest number of infections will be reached.
- The guide to our corona virus reporting. Here you will find the latest news on the crisis in Germany and a map of Germany with the Corona figures.
Mainz / Hamburg - The corona virus keeps the world in suspense. The number of infected people is increasing every day - in European countries and currently especially in the USA . The country is increasingly developing into a new epicenter *.
The ban on contact and other measures are primarily intended to shift the peak of the crisis in Germany . The aim is to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, as is the case in Italy , where doctors have to make decisions about life and death. *
Coronavirus in Germany: when will the peak in infected be reached?
Public life and the economy are largely paralyzed due to the corona virus and the measures taken in Germany . Politicians do not want to talk about an end to possible restrictions for the time being. * First the spread of the virus has to be controlled. Therefore, the question arises: when could this goal be achieved?
Scientists from the universities of Hamburg and Mainz tried to make a forecast using a model calculation. The researchers around the Mainz virologist Prof. Bodo Plachter have considered various scenarios, as reported by the SWR among others.
If the ban on contact and other measures were lifted after Easter, Germany would experience the peak of the coronavirus in terms of the number of patients in June . Almost 1.3 million people would then be infected.
Growth rate of # Covid19 diseases in Germany has almost halved since last Friday - Economists recognize the clear impact of measures to reduce social contacts https://t.co/Odz64CWaoG #CoronaVirusDE- University of Mainz (@uni_mainz) March 27, 2020
Corona highlight in Germany: Different scenarios - zero rate in August?
Alternatively, the scientists also evaluated the scenario in which the ban on contact is maintained for another two months. Then the peak of corona spread in Germany would shift to July. 1.2 million people would then be ill.
In the last model, the number of new infections would drop to zero in August or September. According to a local forecast, this point in time will be reached in June in Italy. *
However, the German scientists also make it clear that their model is only a rough forecast . You have no claim to correctness, especially because important questions about the virus have not yet been clarified.
Corona spread in Germany: Very optimistic scenario gives hope
That is why the researchers have also created another much more optimistic scenario regarding corona virus. For this they used the figures and developments in South Korea and in the Chinese province of Hubei as a basis. Overall, significantly fewer people would fall ill here. Then the peak of the spread in Germany would be reached in May, regardless of whether the ban on contact is maintained or not.
However, this forecast assumes that just under 0.6 percent of the population is infected. According to the SWR, most other forecasts currently assume just under six percent - ten times as much.
* merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network.