In 2006, following an outbreak of a new strain of avian influenza, which eventually became a pandemic, the Ministry of Health, in conjunction with the emergency and security agencies, prepared two epidemic reports. Even then, the worst case scenario was the 1918 pandemic. There was a detailed and wide-ranging preparation plan, which is a clear example of the specificity in which every scenario is, as severe as it may be, since much of the stance concept, which assumed pandemic influenza, was based on the purchase of vaccines and drugs to reduce morbidity.

Three years later, with the outbreak of swine flu, which in this case also did not develop into a pandemic event, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to purchase vaccines that were under development for all citizens of the State of Israel, and at the same time increase the stock of Tamiflu drugs to an amount of 35 percent of the state's population. "It was a preliminary and comprehensive world-wide preparatory decision, along with a budget of hundreds of millions of shekels. But the scenario did not materialize, and the drug expired in warehouses. Can you guess what the reaction was to the government?" Spend millions without cause. "

And if pandemic flu is an example of a serious and rare case, but one that has already occurred in the past, the corona is an extreme event, certainly, almost unlikely. And the staging, it must be remembered, is a business of uncertainty, full of the wisdom of hindsight and little pre-action.

Literature tends to distinguish between different types of uncertainty. One that can be estimated through probabilities based on past information, the creation of a series of possible events, and the construction of risk assessment models and their priorities. And the second, uncertainty that is not measured in terms of risk, such as "black swans," essentially unknown events that cannot be predicted or predicted. And since they cannot be prevented, the deployment action reduces the damage when they occur. The example of the Corona is a classic case of such uncertainty.

Although there were preliminary reports of abnormal morbidity in China in December, it was assumed at the World Health Organization that this was at most an event similar to SARS. And in January, when the new virus was diagnosed, the pandemic infection patterns were still unknown. Another month passed until the organization realized it was a new global epidemic.

Was it possible to prepare in advance? Is it desirable, for example, for a state to store thousands of billions of shekels in its warehouse at the expense of other budgets, for an extreme event, unknown? It is impossible to predict in advance any formidable scenario. But yes, you can do other things. Prepare a dynamic, inter-office emergency system that can work quickly, efficiently and professionally. Accelerate the acquisition and manufacture of respirators, the construction of additional intensive care rooms effectively and targeted, and the operation of other emergency models that already exist in Israel, such as evacuation of the affected population to hotels.

There is something irresponsible about the "preparatory default" voices heard in recent days in Israel; Whether it is people with a long-standing security background, they feel that they can easily express themselves on any subject, or whether it is a plethora of position journalists who are looking to back the government right now.

In particular, the disproportionate comparison to preparing for wars in Israel is infuriated. After all, war is, unfortunately, the most likely event in Israel, so preparing for it is a matter of certainty. They also say that it was a failure like the War of the War, without mentioning that it was then brought to concrete policymakers, who refused to accept the facts for political reasons. Today, not only was there no preliminary information on the epidemic, but when Israel began preparing it as a doomsday epidemic , The political echelon was blamed for aggravating the situation without justification.

And if you're still looking for a comparison to the Israeli wars, here's one: "Bath Queen." As in the War of Attrition, when the fighters are at the forefront, commentators sit in Tel Aviv or the Capital studios and talk a great deal of detachment and misunderstanding about the situation, obsessively searching for a "default" that was not and trying to forcefully plant the seeds of the commission. And all this while Israel is ranked as the safest country in the world to stay in the Corona, and the mortality rate in the meantime, and hopefully it will continue to be the lowest in the world.