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The Impact Covid-19 Has on US Mental Health 2:53
(CNN) - Perhaps half the world's population lives under some form of restriction to help curb the spread of the coronavirus. Many begin to wonder when and how these hard limits in daily activities will end.
Most experts agree that the only way to get out of confinement is by testing. Reliable tests would let people know if they have had the virus, and therefore enjoy at least a certain degree of immunity. It would give officials the ability to isolate new outbreaks when they arise.
But how would people prove their status, and what rights would that status confer on them? These are big questions that countries around the world are dealing with.
In the UK, Health Secretary Matt Hancock, who has just come out of self-isolation after testing positive for covid-19, suggested that Britons who had the virus could receive a certificate, which has already been dubbed as an immunity passport .
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"We are seeing a certificate of immunity, how people who have had the disease, have the antibodies and, therefore, have immunity, can demonstrate it and return as much as possible to normal life," he said. Later, on the BBC, he said it could take the form of a bracelet.
For many who have already lost their jobs or are desperate to return to work and keep businesses alive, the idea sounds like a godsend. But little is yet known about how feasible or reliable such a scheme would be, especially since the evidence surrounding covid-19 immunity is unclear. "The science of immunity that comes from having the disease is too early to make firm decisions now," Hancock said.
Potential challenges include finding a reliable test to determine who has antibodies to the coronavirus, establishing the level of immunity conferred by a previous infection and how long it lasts, and the ability of overloaded health systems to carry out reliable antibody tests, and generalized in the population.
Difficult social questions can also be asked. Could immunity passports create a kind of two-tier society, where those who have them can return to a more normal life while others remain locked up?
The UK government has already been widely criticized this week for its limited coronavirus testing capabilities for front-line healthcare workers and others, sparking skepticism as to whether it could offer a more ambitious program.
Pressed on the idea of the immunity passport on Friday, Hancock told British broadcaster ITV that the UK government has so far not found a working antibody test.
The idea of immunity certificates is "really smart," he said. "But we are not going to bring them in yet because we still don't know that immunity is strong enough and there is more science that needs to be done about immunity levels in people after they have had the disease."
"So only when we have confidence that this is reasonable are we going to do it."
Scientists are seriously studying the idea, he added, including in the laboratories of Public Health England in Porton Down, a top-secret government research site.
Two-tier society?
Paul Hunter, professor of health protection at the University of East Anglia in England, told CNN that his first reaction to hearing Hancock's proposal was "what a brilliant idea", but that he quickly thought of all that could go. evil.
On the positive side, he said, “If you get something like this, you can get people to go back to the areas where they will meet many others: healthcare workers, frontline workers, supermarket workers, who are otherwise in risk, but once you have had the infection, know that you don't have to worry about taking the infection to your families. ”
However, a major drawback is the possibility of people acting fraudulently. "Could people pretend they were immune when they weren't because they needed to go out and make money?" Hunter wonders.
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It is also unclear whether the antibody test, once a reliable type has been developed, would be administered at home or in a healthcare setting.
"If it is based on home evidence, how does someone who signs their 'passport' know that they have really read it correctly?" Hunter said. “How do they know that you have tried it correctly, you have read it correctly and the result is exact? If you go somewhere else, how do they know that you are who you say you are and that you haven't exchanged with someone who looks like you on your driver's license?
Another more serious problem, he noted, is whether people could deliberately try to become infected and hopefully recover and return to work. "If that happens, that could undermine much of what we are trying to do with social distancing."
But while that immunity passport would be divisive, the inequality would not last forever, Hunter said.
Most likely, a vaccine will be developed early next year, he said, which will protect those most at risk, and by then more of the population will in any case be immune.
China Color Based QR Codes
The UK is not alone grappling with the idea of how to safely end the confinement of its population and get people back to work.
China, which is cautiously starting to open up after weeks of restrictions, is using smartphone technology to try to prevent the coronavirus resurgence.
Residents of Hubei province, with the exception of Wuhan City, were told last month that they would be allowed to leave the province if they had a green QR code on their mobile phones.
Hubei had previously ordered all of its residents to obtain the color-based QR code, which comes in red, yellow, and green, and acts as an indicator of people's health status.
Colors are assigned according to the provincial epidemic control database: people who have been diagnosed as confirmed, suspected or asymptomatic cases, or people with fever will receive the red color code; your close contacts will receive the yellow code; And people without any registration in the database will get green code, which means they are healthy and safe to travel.
On April 8, the reduction in restrictions will extend to Wuhan, where the coronavirus first emerged in December, and residents with a green QR code will be able to leave the city and province for the first time in more than two months.
However, officials in the city of about 11 million residents have warned people not to go out too much, amid fear of a new wave of cases.
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Authorities last week introduced new strict limits on foreigners arriving in the country, to avoid that second wave of infections.
South Korea, which has relied on an extensive testing plan and contact tracking to curb the spread of the coronavirus, introduced a GPS-based app to make sure that people who self-quarantined at home stayed.
Denmark seeks evidence
A European nation, Denmark, is perhaps closer than most to lifting its blockade.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen reported on Wednesday that restrictions to stem the spread of the virus appear to be working, with hospital admissions increasing at a stable rate, although the virus has not yet peaked.
Leaving unforeseen events aside, officials say the next step will be a gradual and controlled opening of society starting in mid-April.
Part of the plan will be to offer as many tests as possible, not only for the virus but also for the antibodies, so that people know whether or not they have acquired a level of immunity.
Since the first case was diagnosed in Denmark on February 27, more than 104 people have died and more than 535 have been hospitalized. Denmark was one of the first European countries to close its borders on March 13, and that same week it closed schools, cafes and shops, in addition to banning gatherings of more than 10 people and visits to hospitals.
A combination of widespread testing with social distancing seems, for now, to be the most reliable way to stop the spread of the virus.
As Hancock said to the British, "The most important thing people can do to get out of this as quickly as possible is to stay home."
CNN's Vasco Cotovio, Sarah Dean, Susanne Gargiulo, David Culver and Nectar Gan contributed to this report.
coronavirus