[Interview] From home safety to crisis: An Renzhigang: Hong Kong will not be too bad!

Thematic visits

Written by: Hu Xueneng, Kuang Yueting, He Jingxi, Huang Jie

2020-04-07 07:00

Six years ago, Ren Zhigang, the former president of the HKMA, wrote a book entitled "Secure in Peace", describing the ins and outs of many major financial events in his financial career. Six years later, the crisis is unfortunately coming again. Because of the outbreak of new coronary pneumonia, the global economy has entered a halt. Ren Zhigang described it as "three earthquakes." ﹙See related articles in the interview: [Interview with Ren Zhigang] The current economic crisis is unprecedented, the "three earthquakes" change the global economic structure.

Hong Kong was baptized by social movements last year, but this year it has been hit by an epidemic. It is undoubtedly in a crisis. However, Ren Zhigang, who is accustomed to the storms, said in an exclusive interview with "Hong Kong 01" that he is not pessimistic about Hong Kong's economic prospects, and he also said that Hong Kong people work together to fight against the epidemic and turn the crisis into a safe one. It will not be bad! "During the interview, he not only explained the reasons for optimism, but also talked about whether the linked exchange rate should be reviewed and whether hot money would flow into Hong Kong again.

Social movements and the epidemic have caught on, and many people feel pessimistic about Hong Kong's economic prospects. (Profile picture)

Ren Zhigang, known as the "Financial Tsar", participated in the development of the linked exchange rate system in 1983. His long financial work career can be described as "corresponding" with the crisis. He has experienced the 1987 stock market disaster, the Asian financial turmoil, and the global financial tsunami. Wait for major events. Facing the economic crisis of the "Three Earthquakes", one can't help but sigh: "I haven't seen it in such a long time!" However, what is the reason for optimism about Hong Kong?

[Interview] HSBC Standard Chartered's sudden loss Ren Zhigang bluntly said: If you don't pay dividends to others, how can it be right?

China's economy is expected to emerge out of the haze as soon as possible

"Hong Kong ’s monetary and financial system is very stable, and it should not cause major problems. Even during the global financial tsunami in 2007 and 2008, Hong Kong ’s monetary and financial system did not have any problems. I was the chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority at that time. Funds, reserve capital arrangements, etc., but they are actually placed here and need not be used. "The visit started, and Ren Zhigang made it clear.

No trouble in the monetary and financial system is of course important for stabilizing the Hong Kong economy. Another confidence comes from the Chinese economy. Ren Zhigang made it clear that "absolutely no difference" to the Chinese economy is due to the very effective policy transmission mechanism of the mainland. The "post-epidemic" can rebound quickly. "You objectively look at the method of dealing with the epidemic in the mainland. The efficiency is much higher than that of Western countries and Europe. Good? The reason is very simple. Under a socialist market economy system, I often say that the policy transmission mechanism is very efficient. What the State Council wants, everyone is dedicated to doing this, and the epidemic and the economy. I personally It is expected that the Chinese economy will be the fastest and most powerful in the epidemic situation! "

Ren Zhigang expects that the Chinese economy will rebound the fastest in the epidemic. (Reuters)

The reporter immediately asked whether it meant that China's economic rebound "led to bring Hong Kong". Ren Zhigang responded that this is not a question of "taken without a lead" because "people with a clear eye see Hong Kong's potential and potential." He continued to explain that as an international financial center, Hong Kong has a very good foundation. The role it plays in the financial field is very important. As a bridge between the mainland and the outside world, the combination of capital financing and the integration of mainland and foreign investors is very efficient in Hong Kong. To carry out, "If the country is good, Hong Kong will not be good? Let me talk about finance, what about others? You think about the Bay Area, ten times our population, if we do well, we will move the flow of production factors. Increase, capital or people, the economic development potential is very great, I just look at these things. "

"Ren Zhigang emphasized that the linked exchange rate system is still very suitable for Hong Kong. (Getty Images)

Nowadays, we must adhere to the system of linked exchange

Hong Kong's economic integration with the mainland is deepening. In addition, in every crisis, the United States will raise interest rates and the dollar will fall. The question of whether to review the linked exchange rate will always ignite. It's no wonder that under the United Exchange System, the United States has almost become the institution that determines Hong Kong's monetary policy. However, Ren Zhigang disagreed, because the loose monetary policy of the United States is still suitable for Hong Kong. He asked: "Do you think our interest rate or exchange rate is dependent on the high winds and waves of the family," Are you ridiculous? "

It makes sense to keep up with the turbulence and keep changing. However, whether the exchange rate system has no room for change, for example, it is linked to multiple currencies. Ren Zhigang laughed and said: "Your (reporter) Chengcheng is all sorrowful, connected to Yijia in 1983, the currency environment of the United States is suitable for the currency environment of Hong Kong, you can say that sometimes our economic situation is the same If there are a few differences in the land, I feel that the monetary policy of the Qudi is not suitable for our country, and we have to go to review and change. A monetary policy and a monetary system are not simple things! "

However, Ren Zhigang added that the current Hong Kong interest rate is a bit higher than the US interest rate. The Hong Kong dollar is also in the 7.75 strong guarantee range. There are some "spaces" in the policy, such as low interbank interest rate. "Everyone should respect the decision of the HKMA because the HKMA is in Mastering this is very comprehensive. If necessary, you will see you doing it. "

Ren Zhigang pointed out that the HKMA has a very comprehensive grasp of financial policies. (Photo by Liang Pengwei)

Ren Zhigang: Social events make me very sad

Now that the United States has launched unlimited QE, the Fed's balance sheet has recently risen to a record high of US $ 5.81 trillion. Under the flood of water, Hong Kong's "central gate" will open wide. Will it usher in a new round of hot money? Ren Zhigang does not have a crystal ball, but it means that there is a large money supply, and the price of money is low interest, which will only encourage asset prices to rise. This is a law. "There is no need to challenge."

However, he believes that whether the final asset price is reasonable or not depends on the supply and demand issues. For example, the property market is under the downward momentum of the economy, and the demand should be reduced. "A few flats are good, you may have to buy the property and supply first. The government has a consistent housing policy on the supply side, hoping to push more flats out. If there are more public housing units, private housing prices will also be affected. "I don't make predictions, but you are going to check the supply and demand situation. On the one hand, the government acts as a supplier of public housing and on the other hand as a regulator of the private housing market. Of course, what you do will have an impact on the property market."

Ren Zhigang refused to predict the trend of the property market, but emphasized that asset prices should not deviate too much from "supply and demand." (Profile picture)

He is optimistic about Hong Kong's economy, but under the epidemic, at the end of the interview, the reporter must ask Ren Zhigang to say a few words of encouragement to the people of Hong Kong. Ren Zhigang pointed out that peace should be at all times. Although it is not "safe" now, let's try to see how we can turn crisis into peace. "Everyone can work together to resist the adversity and look forward. It is good for Hong Kong. To do things for the benefit of Hong Kong for the general public, Hong Kong will not be so bad. "

However, he added that social incidents made him very sad, because "severe injuries" to Hong Kong prevented us from focusing on the development potential. "If someone is not doing things in the public interest, but for example to prevent the normal operation of the SAR government, such a situation Hong Kong, how about getting started again? I ’m not afraid to make a bold statement. As you know from the Legislative Council, it ’s so hard to approve a small amount of money to make a deal. Deep in his responsibilities, Ren Zhigang wished Hong Kong's social problems and epidemic situation to subside quickly, "So we can look forward and start again!"

Ren Zhigang pointed out that he was very sad by social events and hoped that Hong Kong could look ahead and set off again. (Photographed by O'Gallery)

Ren Zhigang Monetary Authority