- Click to share on Facebook (Opens in a new window)
- Click to share on Twitter (Opens in a new window)
- Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in a new window)
- Click to email a friend (Opens in a new window)
Scientific study in Costa Rica by the covid-19 1:15
Atlanta (CNN) - It's a question that many want answered: exactly how many people recover from covid-19?
Most people with covid-19 have a mild illness and can recover at home without medical care, while severe cases often receive supportive care in hospital, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. . USA (CDC).
Although there have been regional, national and global data on confirmed cases and deaths, not much has been reported on the recovery.
Johns Hopkins University, which is among the few institutions that have been tracking recovered cases, has been doing so since its data collection on covid-19 cases was first made public on an online interface in January, Douglas Donovan, a spokesman for the university in Baltimore, said in an email on Friday.
"The category of recoveries started when the outbreak focused on China, which was issuing official reports on recoveries," Donovan said in the email.
Then, as the outbreak spread across the world, the researchers realized that there were few methods to report recoveries and decided to limit the reports to only country estimates.
"The cases recovered outside of China are country-level estimates based on local media reports and may be substantially lower than the actual number," Donovan said.
LEE: As China returns to work, many wonder if you can trust the recovery of the country against the coronavirus
Regarding cases in the United States, “the interface does not report estimates for state and county recoveries in the United States. That may change as more uniform reporting for recoveries among local and state governments expands, ”he said. “Currently there is no uniform method for reporting recoveries in the United States. If that changes, the interface will reflect those numbers accordingly. "
As of Saturday, more than 223,000 people worldwide had recovered from covid-19, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University interface. The actual figure is likely to be higher as the data only covers confirmed cases.
Why it is important to track recovered cases
Knowing the number of cases of recoveries could help provide an accurate measure of the total number of people who have been infected, said Dr. Bala Hota, an infectious disease professor and associate at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago.
"Knowing the actual number of infected people in the population would be very helpful in having better models of when the disease will peak and decline, and also when we can start returning people to work," Hota said.
Recovery data may also indicate how easily people can develop immunity to the virus.
"Previously infected people may be excluded as susceptible individuals in modeling, which would affect the prediction of how many cases will occur in the near future," said Hota. "On an individual level, if people can find out if they have been mildly or asymptomatically infected and recovered, they can know they are immune and can safely return to work once home confinement is removed."
There is no evidence to date that people recovering from covid-19 can be re-infected with the new coronavirus, although there isn't much data overall, Hota said. He added that identifying those recovering could help indicate those who have developed immunity, at least in the short term.
"This is a poorly studied group," Hota said of the recovered covid-19 patients. "Being able [to identify recovered patients] ... and saying that you have been exposed, you have recovered and we believe that you are immune, I think it will be very powerful."
LOOK : How to live with a person with coronavirus while recovering
'Recovery ... may take some time'
There is currently no treatment for covid-19 approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. USA (FDA), but infected people can recover with proper care to relieve and treat symptoms.
The CDC has noted that for those with isolated covid-19 at home, they are considered recovered if they meet three criteria:
- Fever-free for at least 72 hours without using fever-reducing medications
- Improvement in other coronavirus-related symptoms, such as cough or shortness of breath
- A period of at least seven days has passed since the symptoms first appeared
If they have access to the tests, the criterion includes two consecutive tests that are negative and 24 hours apart, in addition to not having a fever and seeing an improvement in the symptoms.
Recovered does not mean that a patient immediately feels healthy again. Hota said many of her patients feel tired and still have a persistent cough, even if they meet the recovery criteria.
"Recovery ... may take some time," said Hota.
It can take several weeks to fully recover from the disease caused by the new coronavirus, said Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization's Health Emergencies Program, during a briefing in Geneva in early March.
"It takes up to six weeks to recover from this disease," said Ryan. "People with very serious illnesses can take months to recover from the disease."
Ryan added that recovery is often measured because the patient is no longer symptomatic and has two consecutive negative tests for the virus at least one day apart, but some countries may measure "recovery" differently.
Also, confirming recovery may differ from confirming if someone is still carrying the virus, and that's where some confusion may arise.
READ : Living with the coronavirus: guide for the infected and people who share their home
How long can the virus stay in the body?
Estimates have varied regarding how long the new coronavirus can remain in the body.
An article published in the JAMA medical journal in February tracked the recovery of four medical professionals in Wuhan, China, who were confirmed to have covid-19. One was hospitalized and the other three were quarantined, but all were treated at Wuhan University Zhongnan Hospital in January and February.
The document found that traces of the new coronavirus could still be detected in the four patients up to 13 days after their symptoms had ended and they met the criteria for hospital discharge or quarantine disruption.
"Other studies should follow up on patients who are not health professionals and who have a more serious infection after hospital discharge or quarantine disruption," the researchers wrote in that document.
A separate study, published in The Lancet medical journal in March, found that the virus could be detected for up to 37 days in patients recovering from covid-19.
That study included data from 191 covid-19 patients in Wuhan who had been discharged from the hospital or died in late January.
The data showed that among survivors, the median duration of virus detection was 20 days from the onset of their disease. The researchers found that the shortest observed duration of viral spread among survivors was eight days and the longest was 37 days.
Among those who died, the researchers found that "the virus was continuously detectable until death." The researchers wrote in the study that "sustained viral detection was observed in throat specimens in both survivors and non-survivors."
Overall, Hota of Rush University Medical Center, who was not involved in any of the studies, cautioned against thinking that someone who tests positive for the virus is also infectious.
The CDC notes that covid-19 is believed to be spread primarily through close contact between people in respiratory drops, such as droplets from coughs or sneezes. While infected people often have symptoms of illness, the CDC warns that some people without symptoms can also transmit the virus.
Specifically, the tests "do not provide information if that virus is what we call viable or can live and can cause subsequent infections," Hota said. "Therefore, tests can detect genetic material, but it does not mean that someone is necessarily infectious."
Recovery
