Crises are accelerating history, and that of the coronavirus will be no exception. And to write it, China, chronologically the first victim and, a priori, the first healed of the Covid-19, seems to take the lead. The surprise rebound in industrial activity, although still uncertain, and the cessation of the proliferation of the virus allowed the empire to turn again to many regions of the world. In Southeast Asia, first, its natural area of influence, but also in Latin America and above all, in Africa.
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Ambassador of shock to African countries, which are trying to deal with the most urgent: Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba and twentieth world fortune. The vibrant billionaire has been highlighted in recent days to illustrate the compassion of an entire people, and their efforts for Africa. Several millions of masks and screening kits, suits and even respirators in large numbers have been sent since mid-March, sent by the philanthropist to Zimbabwe, Kenya, Madagascar, Ethiopia or Senegal, and supported by the African Union. The businessman said his ambition to equip each of the 54 countries of the continent, almost all officially affected by the Covid-19, in variable proportions, and according to sometimes erratic data.
According to the official Xinhua news agency, 18 countries * have so far received equipment (FFP2 masks, medical suits, gloves, respirators ...) from Chinese diplomacy and its philanthropic allies. Chinese Ambassador to Accra, capital of Ghana, said yesterday that his country was just emerging from the crisis, but was keen to help its " friends " in Africa, a message enthusiastically received by the Minister of Foreign Affairs. local Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey.
Direct financial assistance
Ghana is among the most active states in its cooperation with China, and surely one of the most ambitious. Ken Ofori-Atta, Minister of Finance and Chairman of the Development Committee, an advisory forum on Africa for the World Bank and the IMF, said yesterday that Beijing " must be stronger ". " Africa's debt to China is around 145 billion dollars, more than 8 billion will be claimed this year ... This is an important subject ." Globally, the African G20 has been asking for financial assistance for $ 100 billion since last week, including $ 44 billion in debt cancellation, and imagines negotiation via the usual institutions.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian grabbed the ball today. And unlike health aid, it is directly with nations that the financial question could be addressed: " for countries in difficulty on debt problems, China will never force them, but will find solutions through consultations bilateral ”. Skillful way of strengthening ties with each executive on long-term issues. The game is worth the candle: African countries exchanged $ 208 billion in goods with China in 2019, exporting many raw materials essential for the Chinese industrial economy. The “new silk routes”, a 26,000 billion dollar project launched by Beijing, are arriving in Africa in large numbers, directly on the horn or in the ports of the Indian Ocean, but also via rail projects, including an Indian Ocean line. -Atlantic ocean arriving in Angola ...
Africa, an open continent?
It is therefore, for the Chinese empire, to secure its logistic allies in a period of major uncertainty. Because it seems that beyond the health crisis, the continent is on the verge of experiencing a major political upheaval. Last week, a note from the Center for Analysis, Forecasting and Strategy (CAPS) of the Quai d'Orsay warned about “ the crisis of too many, which is destabilizing for the long term, or even bringing down fragile regimes (Sahel) or at the end of the line (Central Africa) ". In Angola, Zambia, and other countries, structures seem poised to collapse. CAPS even notes that in all States, " national health systems can be considered as saturated automatically ". Among the detonators which could precipitate the end of certain regimes, a proportion of mortality out of control, the obvious failure of a State in its health struggle compared to its neighbors, or even the death of a personality, the " political death zero ”, which crystallizes a dispute.
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In this context, China could therefore choose to bail out states, or even help them restore authority, or on the contrary could bring about new regimes. A second CAPS note, mentioned by the newspaper Le Monde , describes more clearly the situation for Western states at the foot of the wall, and the possibility of new domination: “Democratic states have a particular message to make heard, and interests and values to defend , concludes the note, to avoid that the post-crisis is only a patching up of the previous model or allowing China's grip on globalization and global governance ”. The Cameroonian essayist Yann Gouet was not mistaken in an analysis published yesterday Monday on the site Jeune Afrique, arguing that the feeling in Africa is that " China may well find itself in the position of the United States out of the second world war "," [accelerating] the downgrading of an aging, indolent and ineffective western civilization ".
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The West entangled in its own crisis
And indeed, if the French CAPS documents stop at the diagnosis, they finish giving the impression of a western paralysis, far beyond that of the confinement of the last weeks. China prospers all the more on the African continent as it is " effective " in the current period of emergency, and participates in saving lives, when the competing powers cannot compete by real initiatives of scale.
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Obviously, France is in the midst of a crisis on its own territory. This does not prevent him from thinking about aid, however mainly focused on the short term. “ We must help Africa out of solidarity. We must also help it for security, because the major risk is the boomerang effect, reimportation, "analyzed French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian last week, translating the primary objective of Paris. : secure access routes in anticipation of major migration movements that instability will not fail to generate. And which will obviously not concern China.
The EU has just "guaranteed" 15 billion euros for Africa and its "partners around the world", of which several hundred million have already been allocated to Morocco and Tunisia, strategic countries for the possible control of migrant flows, in addition to the Irini system in the Mediterranean Sea. Impossible to see further, especially for lack of means: the pockets are empty, because of "end of the budget cycle". A bitter observation is thus obvious: while the Western powers are forced to deal with the most urgent in Africa, China deploys a strategy of long-term influence, methodical, and based on a financial power now glowing in the eyes of the world whole.
* Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Gabon, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Gambia, Liberia, Mali, Burkina Faso, DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Togo, Benin, Cape Verde, Sao Tome and Principe .
