With this massive and unprecedented crisis, economic forecasts are more risky than ever. This is why the World Trade Organization (WTO) prefers to offer a wide range by presenting this Wednesday its forecast on the development of trade in goods in 2020. According to the Geneva-based organization, the Covid-19 will cause a 13% contraction in international trade according to its optimistic scenario and up to 32% in the pessimistic hypothesis. In other words, the volume of trade in goods could be a third lower than its level in 2019. " These figures are awful, " said WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo of Brazil.
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One certainty, this decline should exceed that observed in the wake of the 2008-2009 crisis. No region of the world will be spared, and all are expected to experience double-digit declines. Exports from North America and Asia will suffer most according to the WTO. As for the most vulnerable sectors, they are those made up of complex value chains scattered around the world, in particular electronics and automotive.
This announced collapse, linked to the paralysis of the world economy, a direct victim of the confinement of more than 3 billion people on the planet, follows a bad vintage in 2019. The volume of trade had slightly decreased, by 0.1% over a year due to trade tensions between the two leading world powers, the United States and China.
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The WTO does not expect a rapid rebound in trade in 2021 and recalls that after the 2008-2009 crisis, it did not return to its previous growth rate, which corresponded to the era of triumphant globalization .
