Over 100,000 people in Germany have already been infected with the corona virus. The actual number is even higher. It is also critical to the death rate.
- The number of positive coronavirus infections * leaves many questions unanswered.
- The real figure is crucial. That is why representative studies are currently underway in Germany.
- Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus *, current case numbers * and the latest developments in Germany *.
Munich - In his MDR podcast , Professor Alexander S. Kekulé dealt with the possible undisclosed number of corona infected people on Monday. Representative tests are currently running in the Heinsberg area and in Munich to find out how many people have been infected with the corona virus without noticing it. Corona tests were carried out in 3000 randomly selected households in Munich on Sunday, as tz.de * previously reported.
Corona virus undisclosed number in Germany: That is why the number is so important
It is certain that far more than the approximately 100,000 people tested positive in Germany have become infected, but many had hardly any symptoms, so that they could not be tested.
The number of unreported cases is decisive for two important questions: What is the proportion of the population that has already developed antibodies and is therefore immune - and how dangerous is the virus actually. Because a realistic number of cases can also be used to derive the proportion of those patients who need medical help or even die *. If you have this quota, you can calculate the danger of the virus if several million are infected.
So far there is only wild speculation about the number of unreported cases. For example, some scientists consider the factor 10 to be realistic for Germany. Then only ten out of ten infected people would have tested positive. The other nine either did not test or did not even notice that they carried the virus. Basically, the higher the number of unreported cases, the better. This may sound paradoxical at first, but it has to do with the desired herd immunity and the then lower mortality rate.
Corona: Study in South Korea reveals worrying unreported figures
But Professor Kekulé now named a much lower number of unreported cases, which he considers possible. "I fear that the data from South Korea are relatively reliable. South Korea * is world champion in testing. (...) And it is the case that you assume the order of magnitude of 1: 3, ”said Kekulé * in his podcast. A undisclosed number of two undetected infected people to one who tested positive. "Mortality can be derived relatively well from this figure." Kekulé fears that we also have a similar rate in Germany. “That means that the mortality rate is somewhere around 0.2 percent of the population average. One in 500 on the order of magnitude. ” It would be a worryingly high rate. Extrapolated to ten million infected people, for example, that would mean 20,000 fatalities.
“The number of infected people is misleading as long as the unknown number of infected people who have not been tested is unknown. The numbers of patients who have to be treated in the hospital / intensive care unit are significantly more relevant. ”Https://t.co/TDgujo59NC pic.twitter.com/mqxSlX61i8
- Ruprecht Polenz (@polenz_r) April 5, 2020Corona dark figure in an Icelandic study at around 50 percent
A podcast also mentioned a case study from Iceland . This showed that so far only one percent of the Icelandic population has been infected with the corona virus. Around half of these infected had no symptoms. However, Kekulé * considers this study to be of little value. There was a “relatively controlled introduction” of ski vacationers in Iceland. The outbreak was as local as in Heinsberg. In contrast, there are many herds in Germany, spread across the whole of Germany.
Read also: Scientist calculates corona development for Germany - her conclusion does not sound good *
* Merkur.de and tz.de are part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network
List of rubric lists: © MDR / dpa / Hendrik Schmidt
