The coronavirus bill continues to increase. In an interview with Les Echos, the two bosses of Bercy, Gérald Darmanin and Bruno Le Maire, unveiled elements of the future amending finance bill and put forward several figures highlighting the important consequences of the epidemic on activity. The Minister of Economy first announced the new growth forecast for 2020, at -6%. A figure that matches the first quarter growth estimate published yesterday by the Banque de France.
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" Unknowns remain and this forecast may still evolve, " however warns Bruno Le Maire. For now, the services of the ministry expect a gradual recovery in activity, but this estimate will depend in particular on the growth of other regions of the globe. The faster global trade resumes, the less the economy will be impacted. “ The economic recovery will be long, difficult and costly. It will require efforts from all French people, ”warns the Minister of the Economy.
The government will also considerably strengthen its emergency plan to support the economy: evaluated at 45 billion euros so far, its amount will increase to 100 billion euros, more than double, by adding all the measures taken in favor of companies. " These figures may still evolve because the economic situation and the need for support from businesses are changing rapidly, " adds Gérald Darmanin.
A significant cost for public finances
Two other economic indicators highlight the massive cost of the crisis for public finances. The government now expects a " deficit of 7.6% of GDP " in 2020, a figure that goes well beyond the 3.9% expected so far. This increase is explained first by a drop in tax revenue collected by the State, of the order of " 37 billion euros ", combined with an increase in spending. " We will be over 170 billion euros in budget deficit when we had forecast 93 billion in the initial finance law ," says Gérald Darmanin.
At the same time, French public debt should briskly cross the symbolic 100% threshold: established at 98.1% of GDP at the end of 2019, it should explode, and pass to “ 112% of GDP at the end of the year ”. This strong increase is justified by the Minister of Action and Public Accounts by the need to support businesses and thus avoid bankruptcies and layoffs. Nevertheless, in the long term, the executive promises to reduce its level: " it is necessary to have sound public finances and to reduce the debt, because this crisis clearly shows that the countries of the euro zone with a level of public debt the poor have more resources to support their economy, ”explains Gérald Darmanin.