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Editor's Note: Roberto Izurieta is Director of Latin American Projects at George Washington University. He has worked in political campaigns in several countries in Latin America and Spain and has been an adviser to Presidents Alejandro Toledo of Peru, Vicente Fox of Mexico and Alvaro Colom of Guatemala. Izurieta is also a political analyst on CNN en Español.
(CNN Spanish) - Man is a political animal, as Aristotle said. The policy covers all activities of the public life of citizens and its consequences invade private life, security, education and all aspects of life, including health.
For this reason, my last three articles have been on the coronavirus pandemic, as a contribution to make it easier for my readers to understand and cope with this global historical crisis.
Today, the coronavirus makes us feel raw the consequences of our politicians' decisions on our health and economic survival.
Should politicians also know of pandemics? No, we cannot expect our politicians to know everything there is to know about health, economy, security, etc. But we must expect them to choose their ministers and advisers well; that they know how to listen to them and can read their reports and reports.
Unfortunately, we often vote for populist candidates (Donald Trump, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Jair Bolsonaro, Boris Johnson) because they tell us what we want to hear, because they have the ability (or perhaps just cynicism) to make us believe that the bad that is happening It is the fault of others, that as soon as we vote them everything will be fine. And when things go wrong, they can always resort to saying that that's fake news. These populist leaders have in common their initial reaction of skepticism and denial of the pandemic, contradicting their own experts and scientists around the world. Their irresponsible gamble has had no effect, but it contributed to the delay in prevention measures in their countries and that, in a pandemic, we all pay for.
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As I said in my first article in the series, the time will come (and I think soon) to distribute responsibilities. I do not accuse irresponsible populists of causing the pandemic, but I am convinced that having denied its severity for as many weeks as they did (with the support of networks like Fox News), made it more difficult to confront this pandemic with the necessary basic preparation, and that is paid. The states and localities where the governors are republican are those whose population has breached quarantine. One possible explanation is that, once people assimilated the message of skepticism about the pandemic, it has been more difficult to convince them.
Much remains to be seen about the consequences of this pandemic in Latin America. One of the terrible characteristics of this challenge has been the limited global capacity to carry out the necessary and timely tests (South Korea has been a positive example). Some countries in our region have been very active in seeking measures to contain the virus, but not all face this challenge with a similar macroeconomic situation. Many were surprised by this pandemic and its economic consequences with serious problems. I consider that presidents like Alberto Fernández from Argentina or Iván Duque from Colombia have done an excellent job. For Alberto Fernández it will not have been easy to summon the unit (for now, at the cost of Cristina Kirchner's silence). I hope and hope that their historic efforts and those of their citizens bear fruit as quickly as possible: well deserved.
One of the great unknowns of this virus is that we still do not know for sure how the climate influences its spread. Undoubtedly, the population density and the circulation of its inhabitants will be determining factors in establishing the most affected places. .
Personally, I previously thought that the economic recovery could be as fast and strong as its fall in these weeks. Today I fear that it will most likely be more gradual, although I am still convinced that we will go faster to recovery than in the 2008 financial crisis.
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Estimating both, the development of the pandemic and the economic consequences, are central to being able to estimate the consequences in politics. After months in which millions must seek employment and are under great economic pressure, it is difficult for me to think that November will be a good scenario for Donald Trump. Of course, Trump will sing victory, say he always responded, and acted promptly in the face of this pandemic; But it is very difficult to receive popular support (even after spending a first moment of unity and support) when the economic situation of families is very difficult. In general, in those settings, people are looking for a change.
Will all the governments of the region survive these challenges? Will it be proof of the enormous incompetence of some? In politics, especially when there is no transparency, they manage to hide, interpret and even misrepresent much; but if there is something that is tragically much more difficult it is to hide the dead.
Pandemic