The airline industry is having its worst nightmare since border restrictions were put in place to stop the spread of Covid-19. Each lost day digs billions of dollars into the gaping hole in the airlines' shortfall. The sector, cut by 80% of its usual volume of traffic lost nearly 315 billion dollars - half of its forecast turnover, with an almost zero prospect of balancing it over the next two quarters. Especially since IATA (International Air Transport Association) expects "a significant recovery " for 2021 only and fears the reluctance of travelers in the coming months.
According to the president of the FNAM (National Federation of Commercial Aviation) on average, 200 million passengers pass through Roissy and Orly every year. " We can divide this figure by four for 2020, " says Figaro Alain Battisti, a perspective revised to 60 million.
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However, it is necessary to prepare for the resumption in the short and medium term even if it promises to be painful. How to reconcile the new health imperatives with a virtuous economic model for companies? " No company can earn money with 50% load, " argued Alexandre de Juniac this week, in response to the decision of American Airlines to block 50% of its reservations to meet the requirements of social distancing. This model can work in the era of containment - there are bound to be fewer reservations - but will prove its limits as soon as it resumes.
" Either the planes will remain grounded, " warned the boss of IATA, for want of a tolerable margin with 50% of the seats occupied, " or the plane trip will become very exclusive and for the wealthy." If the sector is dependent on the health authorities and the framework of measures to be decided, the airports are interdependent. Air transport is " a business of connectivity ", explained the boss of ADP (Aéroports de Paris) on BFM Business, last Thursday. " If today we are ready to export passengers but not everyone can welcome them, this cannot work, " he explained, arguing for a "global habeas corpus " to harmonize health measures. .
This request is under study at the Ministry of Transport, assured this Friday the Secretary of State Jean-Baptiste Djebbari. " We are working with neighboring countries because if we lay down a framework of measures which is not harmonized, we will not resume satisfactorily ."
In France, doubts are also crystallized around the "territorialized" deconfinement, with adaptations by territories rather than by region. How to relaunch domestic flights "if you cannot move from one city to another?" Wonders an employee of Air France who operates in Roissy. Air France operates an average of 1,000 flights per day " against a dozen today ", continues the employee who, as a result, is partially unemployed at 50%. “ We follow the news, there are several plans in preparation depending on what we will be able to ensure as an activity. But in the immediate future there is little chance that we will ensure international flights in June ”.
There is also little chance that traffic will resume " with a magic wand on May 11 ", according to the wording of the boss of ADP. It is also unlikely that Orly Airport, which has been closed since March 31, will reopen its aerodromes on D-Day of the deconfinement. " We do not envisage traffic of such a level that it requires reopening Orly, " confirmed the ministry responsible for transport.
Mandatory masks?
Augustin de Romanet, the CEO of ADP unveiled his battle plan, proposed as part of the deconfinement plan to the government. In view of the fact that tests would be accessible and generalized, Roissy and Orly plan to test all the passengers before their flight so as to avoid " boarding feverish passengers ". Again, it is not a question of flying in degraded mode with a reduced occupancy rate, but rather of requiring the mandatory mask. " The mask will probably be compulsory, " added Jean-Baptiste Djebbari.
" Inside an airplane, air filtration every three minutes is better than in all other modes of transport, " says Augustin de Romanet. To this must be added a " considerable strengthening of airport cleanliness measures and hydroalcoholic gel at all stages ", but also " a check on arrival ". These cumulative measures could ensure the health security of staff and passengers, according to the ADP representative.
For its part, cargo air transport resists but is worried with a loss of 10% of activity in March and minus 30% estimated in April, according to the representative of TLF Overseas (professional union grouping the companies organizing air and maritime transport) , Florent Noblet. The resumption of activity in Europe exacerbates the concerns: " There is a risk of an influx of exports from Europe and we will not have enough hold capacity ". For the moment, the sector is doing well because many airlines, due to lack of passengers due to confinement, charter charter flights.
Air cargo is dependent on 70% of passenger flights, which also carry goods in their hold. And since all the representatives of the air are pessimistic about the resumption of passenger flights in the short term, the freight forwarders (cargo managers, Editor's note) fear " a hunt for capacity ". From the moment " when the factories resume service there will be a much greater export need and we can fear a lack of capacity in France ", explains Florent Noblet.
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According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), measures to combat the Covid-19 could deprive world air traffic of 1.2 billion passengers by September, compared to a normal period.