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Editor's Note: Carlos Alberto Montaner is a writer and political analyst for CNN. His columns are published in dozens of newspapers in Spain, the United States and Latin America. Montaner is also vice-president of the Liberal International. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own.
(CNN Spanish) - The famous assault cry "The bag or life!" It posed a clear choice.
The pandemic is a return to that terrible formula. Either the economy opens and more people die, or society remains locked up in their homes and the number of deaths is lower.
In the United States, President Donald Trump seems to vacillate between both positions. His instinct tells him to open up. His advisers, who are doctors, people trained to save lives, recommend waiting.
Supporters of the immediate opening of society put forward philosophical and practical arguments.
Among the first is freedom. The State should not decide for individuals what is in their best interest.
Among the practical arguments is poverty. Workers need a livelihood for their families.
However, the prestigious Israeli mathematician and retired general Isaac Ben-Israel supports another hypothesis. According to his analysis, the virus follows an inevitable pattern of behavior, so it does not matter if society is totally or partially closed.
The contagion grows tremendously up to 40 days, but falls from there. During the tenth week, that is, after 70 days, the danger of contracting the virus drops to almost zero, according to the Ben-Isarel statistical projection.
That, of course, does not answer the question about why covid-19 attacks with greater virulence in certain countries. Why Spain has 47.42 deaths for every 100,000 inhabitants, while Portugal only registers 7.98?
This has to do with prior preparation: the number of tests to find out who has been infected and who has the antibodies, what has been called “social distancing”, masks and gloves, artificial respirators, the provision of hospital beds and the availability of suitable specialists.
When society is not polarized, as in Germany, there are just 6.72 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Whereas in England, where it is divided in solidarity, the rate is 28.26 deaths.
However, it is in England where the University of Oxford has prepared a vaccine that could ward off the danger. There will be sufficient data in the next two months if infections remain high and if they drop, the information will arrive in 6 months.
At that time the bag can be preserved ... and life.