Marcelo Bonelli
04/23/2020 - 22:00
- Clarín.com
- Opinion
The Government is evaluating changing the charter of the Central Bank. The issue was discussed in Olivos and the Minister of Economy himself raised it at a meeting of the social economic cabinet. The intention is to provide the monetary authority with legal backing to intervene in the destination of the credit and to force the banks to make the money reach the exhausted companies. The issue sparked an internal debate in the economic cabinet.
Miguel Pesce, the head of the BCRA, rejects the initiative: he says that its implementation is delicate and may unleash future doubts about the robustness of the financial system. Pesce stops the initiative. In the last days he held several meetings to defuse the bomb. This is what he said: "there will be no changes in the BCRA charter, nor in the entities law."
Pesce was very active after a meeting in the Quinta de Olivos emerged from the banks. It was last Friday. Alberto Fernández met with all the heads of blocks of the Chamber of Deputies and there were harsh criticisms of the obstacles that persist so that emergency money reaches productive activity.
Máximo Kirchner was one of the most critical and in that discussion he said something like this: "you have to take advantage of the coronavirus to advance on the banks." Fernando Navarro - link between the Casa Rosada and the Parliament - later prepared a report on the restrictions to access credit.
That list had a particularity: the official banks are - along with some foreigners - the ones that place the most requirements and obstacles to grant state aid. Including Banco Nación itself.
Bankers adduce BCRA regulations. In the Association of Banks of Argentina (ABA) headed by Claudio Cesario they argue that they need real guarantees from businessmen to deliver the money that the Treasury contributes.
Minister Guzmán spoke privately and - also - in public about modifying the charter. This is what he said: “the basic business of banks is speculation. That must change. " Guzmán is preparing something sensible: a program to absorb the millionaire monetary surpluses and thus finance the Treasury.
It would be a plan to neutralize the very strong monetary issue. But there is still a question that makes a lot of noise: will it be a voluntary or compulsory debt placement?
Pesce, in the privacy of power, admitted that "fiddling" with banks can be "dangerous." At the BCRA they say it is an asset that the bank is financially sound and warn of gross mistakes - compulsory placement of bonds by Domingo Cavallo in 2001 - that ended in a catastrophe.
There were so many versions this week that Pesce contacted Sergio Massa and it was clear: "We did not promote any change in the banking system."
The question was yesterday at the BCRA board meeting. Unlike Pesce, some directors believe that it would be favorable for the monetary authority to interfere in the destination of the credits. On the cusp of power, there are talks of changes for two objectives: - That the BCRA be guarantor of all loans. That would be accepted by banks.
-That a change in the Organic Charter allows to increase the transitory advances to finance the Treasury.
The market went crazy yesterday with a jump in the dollar: the "blue" hit 120 and the gap with the official was 70%. The discussion at the highest level on the BCRA, banks and money management influenced the Liqui and Dollar Stock markets. The ticket goes up by three underlying factors. The first: the strong monetary issue finances the rise of the dollar.
But there is also uncertainty about the absence of a solid program to face the current crisis and the lack of an economic plan for the post-pandemic.
The EuroChamber submitted to the Chief of Staff and the entire economic team a proposal to cushion the economic impact of the coronavirus. The EuroCámara represents all the European "multis" in Argentina. The note signed by the influential Giorgio Alliata proposes productive solutions implemented just weeks ago in Germany, Italy, Spain, France. No official responded.
Yesterday there was a meeting of all the powerful "Ceo" of the Argentine oil companies. They spoke of the brake on payments, and there were criticisms of the gas distributors.
All assure that Alberto Fernández was right in handling the health crisis. To face the pandemic, it has a political agreement, a concrete plan, a strong minister who carries it out and a committee of experts that supports it.
But in economic matters it lacks a global strategy. The economic team is going behind the events and there is no plan to face the productive depression. Nor is there an economy minister to lead the situation and there is no consultation with economic experts.
The hard negotiation of the debt will ensure - in addition - that there will be four very turbulent weeks. So far there is only one conviction: that the "wolves" of Wall Street are intractable and thus Argentina is heading for default. The hardness of both is logical: they prepare for negotiation.
But yesterday there were doubts about Guzmán's vocation to agree with creditors. The "prospect" he filed with the SEC is very aggressive.
On the other hand, confidential Wall Street reports do not spare criticism: "Guzmán got on a train that is going to hit the wall." Those Manhattan papers accuse the minister in bad faith and say that Joseph Stiglitz is having an "academic experience" with Argentina.
Gerardo Rodríguez - one of BlackRock's negotiators - repeated the threat in several places and, loudly, told the minister: "you don't know who you're messing with."
It is clear that in Manhattan they try to grind Guzmán. So the funds asked to speak directly to the President.
Alberto Fernández entrusted it to Jeffrey Sachs this Wednesday. In a private conversation, the heterodox economist supported Argentina's strategy. The President assured Sachs one thing: the only interlocutor with the bondholders will be the Head of the Treasury.
The bondholders say that the Argentine proposal has an unacceptable value of 37%.
Guzmán argues that the value reaches 50%. The difference is billions of dollars., The minister produced a confidential report for the President where he is optimistic. In this work, Guzmán assures that the international financial deterioration will continue - in the coming weeks.
In the minister's opinion, this global upheaval will make the Argentine proposal revalued and accepted by the "wolves" of Wall Street. In other words: that the par value is more attractive because of the devaluation of all international assets.
The minister made a presentation in Olivos and affirmed: "everything can be done in a week and the Argentine proposal will be more attractive." Therefore, it is not understood that Guzmán himself has made the mistake of tying himself to a close date: May 8, when it could wait until 22.
Bankers, however, doubt those predictions. Emmanuel Macron endorsed the debt strategy, but on Saturday he told the President: "the only sure thing in the world today is doubt and uncertainty."