How Deadly is the Corona Virus Really? This question concerns experts worldwide. A study now gives an insight into the development of the death toll from the pandemic.
- In addition to the United States, Europe in particular is badly affected by the corona pandemic *.
- Almost every country on the continent has new deaths every day.
- A study of mortality shows the extent to which the number of deaths has changed since the virus broke out compared to previous years.
Munich - Our time on this planet is finite. The death at the end of life the only real certainty - if it is ever so terrible. In the Corona crisis * , this is all the more apparent to us. Because every day we are confronted with new sad reports about the number of victims of the global pandemic . But how much does the rampant virus affect the number of deaths that the world has to mourn every day even without Sars-CoV-2?
Corona Crisis: Survey of Mortality with 24 Countries
This question can be answered on the basis of a study carried out by the data network EuroMOMO in Denmark since 2015 . The abbreviation stands for European Mortality Monitoring Project . The researchers have therefore set themselves the goal of monitoring mortality in Europe. 24 countries are part of this project, more specifically 22 nations and the two German states Berlin and Hesse .
No figures have been collected for all other regions in Germany . In contrast to the British countries England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales , Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Austria, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Spain and Hungary there.
Corona crisis: “Excessive deaths” to be measured
According to EuroMOMO, the aim of the study is " to develop a routine system for monitoring mortality in the area of public health ". It aims to " record and measure, in real time, an excessive number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats in participating European countries".
At first glance it can be seen that the number of deaths in the months around the turn of the year - i.e. in winter - is significantly higher than at other times. What is the reason for this is not explained. Because no distinction is made here between types of death. However, in winter there is of course a greater risk of influenza and traffic accidents.
Corona crisis: week 14 with the most deaths since the virus broke out
The absolute highlight of deaths before the corona pandemic was the second calendar week in 2017, when a total of 70,665 deceased were registered. This number has been exceeded three times since the outbreak of the new virus: in week 13 with 75,292, in week 14 with 86,380 and in week 15 with 82,820. The so-called normal range was clearly exceeded in week 12 with 63,033 deaths.
EuroMOMO differentiates into four age categories. In the zero to four year olds and the five to 14 year olds , the value of deaths remained in the normal range even in Corona times, most recently even below the baseline of the average numbers. The situation is different for the 15- to 64-year-olds , where a clear upward trend can be seen from week 12. The sad highest level since the beginning of the study was 9917 deaths in week 14 - for this period 7832 was given as the "normal value".
The increase was even more pronounced among the over-64-year-olds . Week 14 stands out, with 76,382 deaths . "Normal" would have been 47,212. An immense difference of almost 30,000 lives. While at week 16 the 15- to 64-year-olds are again approaching the area of the so-called "significant increase", the fourth age group is still far from it. Most recently, 60,326 deaths were recorded within seven days .
Take special care for your own protection: Anyone dealing with corona victims should take urgent precautions.
© dpa / Aaron Chown
Corona crisis: after 16 weeks, mortality is already 140,750
How much the corona pandemic affects the number of deaths can also be guessed from the so-called over - mortality . It is about how much higher the number of people who actually died compared to the expected level . After the first 16 weeks of 2020, the mortality rate was 140,750 - the value has never been so high since the start of the study. 2018 was completed with a mortality rate of 121,009, the previous year with a value of 81,008.
The curve started very flat this year and ran two months below that of the previous two years. The extremely steep climb started in week 12 , a week later the 2019 curve was crossed, in week 15 also the 2018.
Particularly interesting here: The value for the age groups from zero to four and from five to 14 is negative - fewer young people are dying than expected - and also lower than in the past two years . The situation is completely different for the two upper age groups. The start of the year was also more gratifying here than in 2018 and 2019, but in week 15 the curve shot to the top. For 15- to 64-year-olds, the mortality rate after 16 weeks is 11,324, which is not far from the year-end 2018 (12,698). The mortality rate among the over-64-year-olds is already estimated at 128,230 - the highest value ever measured .
Corona crisis: Eight countries have "extremely large excesses" of fatalities
A look at the individual countries shows that there are clear differences in the deviation from the standard value. While there is no unusual increase in Berlin and Hesse, for example , and both federal states showed the highest value in the course of the study in week 10 in 2018, the so-called Z-value , which indicates the difference to the mean, is significantly higher in eight countries out. During the Corona crisis, these nations were already certified as “extremely large excess” , which is the case with a Z value of more than 15.
Wales (15.03) and Scotland (16.93) only slightly exceeded them in week 15. Significant were about France (21.44 in week 14), Italy (22.34 in week 14), the Netherlands (24.29 at week 14 and 22.22 in week 15), Belgium (26.16 at week 14 and 27.26 in week 15) and Spain (31.13 in week 13 and 34.27 in week 14) - all the countries mentioned have shown a positive trend since these values.
Corona crisis: Z value for difference to mean increases in England
The deviation is particularly worrying in England , where there is no return to normal . Rather, the Z-value continues to rise: from 35.19 in week 14 to 44.28 in week 15 to the sad peak of 48.78 in the last measured week 16.
The development in Austria is much more gratifying, as it amazed with its rapid and restrictive measures in the Corona crisis and has since been the role model. Here the z-value for week 16 is given as -10.95. No other country has recorded such a downward deviation in the study.
So there has been a significant increase in the number of deaths in Europe in the past few weeks - just since the virus has raged on the continent. However, the increase is only significant in adolescents and adults. And especially with seniors, who are already included in the risk group * .
Western Europe, including Great Britain, is particularly affected. England emerges as a problem child , which seems to be in a violent negative vortex . However, developments in other similarly suffering nations should encourage the English.
In our articles, we also inform you about the risk of contagion * from the virus, the symptoms * of a disease, possible protective measures * and the long-term consequences to be feared * in infected people.
In Germany, there is a requirement for masks in shops and public transport - however, 30 million masks ordered are classified as “scrap”. Meanwhile, Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder gives an insight into the road map for the economy and the catalog of fines for violations of the mouthguard regulation.
* merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network.
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Rubric list picture: © dpa / Joaquin Corchero