Virologist Drosten warns of a second violent corona wave - "With a force ..."

The coronavirus situation in Germany currently seems to be easing somewhat. But virologist Christian Drosten is now urgently warning of a second wave.

• The latest corona figures from Germany are hopeful, but virologist Christian Drosten warns of a second wave of viruses .
• According to the expert, the reason for this are two background effects that have not yet been considered, but could soon have fatal consequences. 
• He outlines a troubling prognosis that the coronavirus could hit hard again.
• Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus * and the corona news from Germany. You can also find current case numbers in Germany here as a map *. The following recommendations for corona protective measures * are currently available. The most important thing about the topic is also on our brand new Facebook page Corona News. Become a fan now.

Update April 23, 2020: In his NDR podcast, virologist Christian Drosten confirmed his fear of a second wave of corona in Germany. In this context, he criticized the current easing of the measures. "I regret it so much these days that we are about to completely lose this lead," he warns. “We are one of the very few countries worldwide where the numbers are declining. And we are the country with the largest population and the clearest news situation among these countries. ”

Politicians are now loosening the measures - prematurely from Drosten's point of view! “Now we suddenly see that shopping centers are busy again and are full of people, because every shop has an area of ​​less than 800 square meters. As an exception, I have to express my opinion in this podcast. ”Angela Merkel has a similar opinion and sends a warning to the federal states: You are walking on“ thinnest ice ”. Another health expert sees it similarly and finds the discussion about further easing “completely wrong”.

Virologist Drosten warns of a second violent corona wave - "With a force ..."

First report April 21, 2020: Berlin - The first extreme coronavirus * wave of infections seems to have waned in Germany. According to current information from the Robert Koch Institute , the reproductive rate R , i.e. the number of people infected with a corona, averaged 0.9 on Monday. 

It has dropped below the critical value of 1. But before the Germans weigh themselves in false security, virologist Christian Drosten * from the Berlin Charité warns in his regular NDR podcast of a possible second wave of infection that could strike with full force . 

Read also:  "Totally erased from our collective memory" - When tens of thousands in the FRG died of a pandemic

Coronavirus: Drosten rates the decline in reproductive numbers as positive - but also warns

Drosten rates the current number of reproductions very positively. The fact that an average person infected with corona infects fewer than one other person means a decrease in new infections and thus a first step in containing the corona pandemic . The expert believes that the easing of the measures * on Monday is obvious, but they are also worrying him. "Of course it is the case that politicians do not assume that the R value will rise above 1 again," says Drosten. "But the question you always have to ask yourself is: Can we have overlooked something? If so, what could that be? "

In concrete terms, Drosten also wants the virus to spread unnoticed "under the cover of the measures", so to speak, despite the previous successes , according to a report by Focus.de . 

When I spoke this passage last week, it was not clear to me how much the current distance measures are now being questioned on all sides. At R = approx. 1 the virus spreads under the blanket of the measures. Even now. https://t.co/FFfuCBeGEe

According to Drosten, two diffusion effects will occur: local and age-based diffusion:

Coronavirus: Drosten sees two background effects that could cause problems for Germany

• Local diffusion: Especially at the beginning of the pandemic, local virus hotspots have developed in the Federal Republic, such as the Heinsberg district. However, by rapidly minimizing contact *, the heterogeneous concentration of cases was frozen, so to speak. As a result, the map showed itself on the one hand strongly and on the other hand hardly affected places by the virus . Even now, the striking local trouble spots of the initial introduction can still be seen . However, what Drosten says is not yet included in the numbers are the cases that were dragged into other regions in the background. For example, by visiting or traveling anyway, or by having certain meetings under exceptions. 

• Age-related diffusion: While the coronavirus was transmitted especially by the young and middle-aged population class at the beginning of the pandemic, older people were initially little affected . However, Drosten sees " slow spreading over time into older age groups , which we have not yet noticed exactly". Accordingly, he fears that chains of infection already exist among older people * . Possible reasons for this could be that you have made an appointment with acquaintances or that your grandchildren have visited. 

Coronavirus: Drosten fears “epidemic activity in disproportionate way”

Excesses of these two background effects are not yet to be seen in the figures. But: "If the  reproductive value * should rise above 1 again , the epidemic activity suddenly starts again in a disproportionate way because of the local distribution", warns Drosten. The virologist is particularly worried that "the people who will then appear everywhere in Germany as newly infected are no longer the 35-year-olds, but suddenly the 70-year-old and his social contacts, who may also be in the age group." 

Then the expert becomes particularly clear: "Suddenly you have a wave of infection within a month that you didn't expect, " he predicts. With regard to the intensive care units of the clinics as well, such an effect could be accompanied by stress “in a way that is not currently expected”. Drosten makes it clear that such a development is not speculation for him. “These are diffusion effects that are almost inevitable . I expect that this will happen - and that we will suddenly have to reassess our old experiences in Germany and may not have time for this reassessment. "

How deadly is the corona virus really? * A look at the death numbers provides information. In the subsequent podcast episode, the virologist warned against not wasting Germany's “lead”.

* Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network.

Rubric list picture: © AFP / MICHAEL KAPPELER