Eduardo Paladini
04/27/2020 - 17:09
- Clarín.com
- Politics
The announcement of a new phase of the quarantine, with the expectation frustrated by recreational outings, put the Argentines before another anthropological challenge: heading towards a closure of almost two months due to the coronavirus. As with each extension, the question is repeated: are people prepared, psychologically and economically, to continue to be isolated? How does it feel To put together a panorama of this unpublished scenario, Clarín exploded five public opinion studies that addressed the issue in recent days. And since consultants who have been measuring the impact of the pandemic for several weeks did it, it also allows us to draw a map of how those feelings evolved.
The national and metropolitan area surveys are from the firms Opina Argentina, Oh Panel, Opinaia, Federico González & Raúl Aragón and Synopsis . The surveys were made between April 9 and 23. Some general and coinciding conclusions:
What is Coronavirus? How is it spread and what are its symptoms?
Watch the special- There is majority support for the restrictions that Alberto Fernández launched to combat Covid 19.
- People prepare for longer isolation.
- Although there is agreement in prioritizing health, concern about the economy grows.
- The President achieved his own volume of support and a gap is opened with Cristina.
- Demand continues for politicians to show solidarity with the crisis by contributing part of their salaries.
Isolation until the end of the year?
One of the most recent polls is from Oh Panel , a consultancy that works more for the business world but also made measurements for the last elections. In this case, he presented a national online survey of 1,000 cases . A key point is that it already has a comparison -measuring the same variables- of five weeks : the first one just started the quarantine, from March 20 to 26; the last one, between April 17 and 23.
These are some points that stand out at the start of the report:
- In Week 5 of isolation, 3 out of 10 interviewees (28%) affirm that the danger of Covid-19 will extend beyond the month of October 2020. In the first week of the study, only 13% saw a danger so long. Now 22% believe it will continue until September and 12% until August.
- Local quarantine allowed the decrease in the perception of aggravation .
- There is stability in concern for the economy and unemployment.
- The discharge from the national government falls, awaiting new measures to protect work and the economy. The Fernández administration's overall rating of the pandemic - ranging from 1 to 5 - fell from 4.1 the first week to 3.4 the fifth.
Pocket problems and demand for more control
The study by Opina Argentina , a consulting firm linked to the world of politics, clearly shows one of the contradictions that seem to coexist during the pandemic: while people reveal the economic problems caused by unemployment, on the other hand they demand that the measures be tightened of control.
The survey, national, telephone and 1,470 cases, was made between April 14 and 15. Some of the main conclusions:
- "The measures of the Alberto Fernández government to confront the pandemic continue to reflect broad support: 88% believe that it is doing so positively and a very similar percentage approves the extension of preventive and compulsory social isolation ."
- Along these lines, the respondents express themselves in favor of the presidents who prioritize confronting the pandemic over the economy (72%). "
- " Alarm lights begin to come on , to which we must begin to pay attention. The numbers drop sharply when asked about the country's capacity to face this situation."
- "The number is eloquent when asked about personal income, where 77% affirm that it had a decrease in the last month : 49% speak of a very large decrease, while 28% refer to losses due to the moment are smaller.
Support the security forces and celebrate like Diego
Another job that showed substantial changes in public opinion, or at least regarding some prejudices that could be had, was that of Opinaia , a pioneering consultant in online measurements.
Clarín carried out part of his latest study, a national survey of 1,800 cases carried out between April 13 and 20. There, within a series of measures launched or debated, a demand appeared for a "cut and drop in the salaries of politicians and officials" : 80% of the respondents were "very much in agreement" with that measure and a 10% "quite agree".
More data? 57% acknowledged suffering from "lack of money" or problems of "labor income" due to unemployment. But (again), 94% spoke in favor of quarantine. And what perhaps attracted the most attention, when asked to choose the "sectors that are helping the most" in the pandemic, in the multiple response table (you could choose several) the "Security Forces" came out first (67%) , the second was the "Armed Forces" (58%) and the "media" (32%) were also highlighted.
Another curious point, qualitative, was when they asked for testimonies for the day after: "When the quarantine is over, what is the first thing you would do". One of the outstanding phrases: "Celebrate hugging my family, like Maradona's goal in 86 for the English" .
The report also highlights the following:
- "Adherence to social, preventive and compulsory isolation continues to be practically total, with acceptance values of over 90%. This explains why effective compliance with quarantine, with exceptions, is high ."
- "As the time in quarantine progresses, the undesired effects of the measure begin to be felt: an economic paralysis. Lack of money or labor income is pointed out as the main problem during isolation, while the number of those who are growing They think that their personal and family finances are going to have great difficulties. People are losing their fear of illness and their fear of the economic , of suffering serious hardships increases. "
Criticism of retirees and cyber patrols
Consultants Federico González and Raúl Aragón , who worked with Sergio Massa in previous campaigns, presented a joint work. It is a survey of 1,200 cases in the metropolitan area (City and Buenos Aires suburbs) , collected online on April 16 and 17.
One of the most curious parts of the report was advanced by Clarín: it raised how an election between Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri would come out. The President was first, far, with 56.3%; the leader of the second PRO, with 17.4%; and the former third president, with only 12.5%.
But in addition, the study panned on the most controversial situations and measures of these weeks. And there, by far, the main questions appeared due to the queues and crowds suffered by retirees , at the beginning of the month, to be able to collect at banks. 66.1% considered it "very serious" and 22.9%, "serious".
In addition, 47.1% expressed "disagreement" with cyber patrols on social networks revealed by the Minister of Security, Sabina Frederic, as a way to measure "social humor". Despite the fact that the clarification made by the official was added to the question, the rejection prevailed.
The gap between Alberto and Cristina
One of the most relevant political data since the start of the coronavirus crisis was the improvement in the image of Alberto Fernández. But with the passing of the weeks, a fall of his vice, Cristina Kirchner, also began to be perceived in some studies. One of the samples is the aforementioned survey by González and Aragón with the electoral hypothesis.
Another consultancy that studied this topic in depth was Synopsis , a firm created in 2015 and which has been measuring in all elections. In its last national survey, from April 9 to 12, with 1,287 cases , the firm highlighted a particular number: 15.8% of those surveyed had a good image of Alberto F. but not Cristina.
Lucas Romero, director of the consultancy, analyzes the improvement of the President and the fall of the vice:
- "This novelty represents a novel political fact that could alter the conditions under which both actors build their relationship of cooperation and build their political society at the head of the government Coalition. If, at the beginning of their administration, the main source of legitimacy for Alberto Fernández (that is, the legitimacy of origin by the election won), was certainly conditioned by the fact that his candidacy had been unilaterally chosen by Cristina Kirchner, today his main source of legitimacy has become his own popularity, which was not it comes from the legitimacy that his vice president could transfer to him, but from what the President himself is doing at the forefront of this coronavirus crisis. "