Two Damocles swords over Europe

Important decisions were expected from the European Council last April 23 after the last bitter sessions on the activation of the European rescue fund. However, it is nothing more than a half-hearted agreement, which camouflages shallow deep clashes: the line of open fractures between the countries of the northern front (Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Germany and now Sweden) and those of the southern front (France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece) continues to be the main vector of disagreements.

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The meeting has been disappointing and mysterious. Certainly nothing is known about the content of the agreement, the amount at stake and its conditionality. The decisions of the Eurogroup on the 9th were ratified - solidarity mechanism, employment loans, guarantees managed by the ECB. But the promised fund and other significant details are pending discussion, upon a proposal from the European Commission before May 6.

In reality, the problem is not only one of quantity, but a political one. It has not been taken into account that the countries of the South, already tremendously indebted, will now have to become more indebted and face a system of “markets” ambushed to attack their sovereign debt. Meanwhile, the north wing, which calls itself "frugal", attributes the increase in this debt to the "prodigality" policies of the South. It is forgotten that the indebtedness originated mainly, since the 2008 economic crisis, by the unequal implantation of the single currency, the euro on the pattern of the lowered German mark, which severely punished the least developed countries. In other words, the idea of ​​a common currency was never chosen as a precaution for all the currencies of the Member States, under the initial provision of mechanisms to create an “optimal monetary zone” to help convergence. Achieving this goal required a high European budget, cohesion funds, and great solidarity between the partners vis-à-vis the world market. However, the derisory budget adopted to meet the challenge of the single currency (1% of European GDP) did not allow any of the vulnerable countries to recover its delay.

Without those premises indicated, the marriage between the partners has come to less. If the single currency allows the market to function well (the real objective), it also deepens the divergences between the European economies. Enrich the richest, indebted the others. Here lies the flawed inauguration at the bottom of the chain of conflicts between northern and southern Europe. It is reflected in all aspects of the set. The northern front, seeking to legitimately avoid the euro crisis, advocates permanent cut policies to avoid expenses and debt; while the South cannot assume such drastic restrictions without jeopardizing its own political stability. Two Damocles swords now hang over Europe: the fragile existence of the euro without a significant increase in the European budget and the rise of national populism as a rabid defense reaction.

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