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Written by: Kuang Xiaobin
2020-04-28 20:32
Last update date: 2020-04-28 20:32A research team at HKBU has established a computational model that can clearly describe and quantify the spread of new coronaviruses in different stages of the epidemic and among different groups. Based on this model, the research team conducted a prospective analysis of different resumption plans, and recommended that Wuhan take longer to fully resume work to reduce new cases of new coronavirus infections.
Professor Liu Jiming (left) and Assistant Professor Liu Yang (right) of the HKBU Computer Science Department. (Provided by HKBU)
The computational model was jointly developed by the research team led by Liu Jiming, a lecturer in the Department of Computer Science of the HKBU, and the Institute of Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. According to the HKBU, the relevant calculation models provide science-based analysis tools, allowing decision makers to design safe solutions for the affected cities, and gradually return to normal work and life safely under the premise of controlling the risk of disease transmission. Through science-based forward-looking analysis, policymakers can calculate the best time to restart the economy.
The research team analyzes various data of Wuhan, Beijing, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Shenzhen. Taking the capital Beijing as an example, if the local resumes work on February 24 and fully resumes within one month, the local gross domestic product (GDP) The growth rate is -17%; taking Shenzhen as an example, if the local work resumes on February 24 and is fully resumed within a month, the local GDP growth is -18.8%.
After researching and analyzing the situation in Wuhan, Wuhan is recommended to resume work for a longer period of time to reduce new cases of new coronavirus infection.
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The research team will disclose the calculation model and analysis tool to the society, so that public health decision makers and researchers in need can use the tool and local epidemiological data to make decisions. Related research has been published in the journal "Eclinical Medicine", a subsidiary of the medical journal "Needle".
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