[New Coronary Pneumonia] The source of the virus is left for scientific pursuit without excessive interpretation

01 point of view

Written by: Review Editor

2020-04-29 16:45

New coronary pneumonia raged, and the source of the virus became a hot topic in the world. Recently, a research team from the United Kingdom and Germany published a paper to analyze the initial transmission and evolution path of the virus, and pointed out that the original strain of the virus was prevalent in the United States, Australia and other places, rather than in China. The source of the virus, Chen Yingxin, a former District Councillor of the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions, also used this "filming" to explain. However, the above research only analyzes the initial spread of the virus, not to make a conclusion about the source of the virus. The opinions in the community may have been taken out of context. In any case, rigorous scientific research is required to verify the source of the virus, and if it is not clarified, the scientific research should be interpreted carefully to avoid mistrust and misinformation.

Geneticist Peter Forster of the University of Cambridge, UK, and German experts recently published a paper in the Proceedings of the American Academy of Sciences (PNAS), which studied the "evolutionary paths" of early new coronaviruses, that is, the history and direction of virus mutations. The research team analyzed 160 virus samples from the end of December last year to the beginning of March this year and found that the virus evolved rapidly and variably. It can be roughly classified into three types of A, B and C disease strains in the initial stage of transmission, of which the type A disease strains are The most primitive virus among the three is the closest to the virus found on bats, and it derives type B, type B and then type C. The results of the study show that this type A disease strain, which is regarded as the root of the outbreak, is not the main virus type in Wuhan, but is a common case in the United States and Australia. Type B disease strains are common in East Asia, while type C is a prevalent type in Europe, but there are also samples found in Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.

Study does not confirm the source of the virus

The original virus is not prevalent in China but overseas. The results of this study are naturally welcomed by some people. The former district councillor Chen Yingxin also posted a short video on YouTube recently, questioning the claim that the new coronavirus originated in China, and pointed out that the above research shows that the team found a type A disease strain in the United States that once lived in Wuhan. Most of the patients are Americans and Australians (for example, two-thirds of the patients are Americans), and the type B disease strains endemic in East Asia, while the type C disease strains prevalent in Europe appear in Hong Kong, Singapore and other places. , But it did not appear in China, so it was inferred that "there is a great chance that the virus does not originate in China", but "there is a chance in the United States or Australia."

However, the media fax agency inquired the research team and was responded by Peter Forster to emphasize that the purpose of the research itself is to investigate the spread of early viruses among human beings, and it cannot be concluded about the source of the virus. This shows that this study cannot be used to prove the exact source of the virus. Even though the Cambridge team studied the initial spread of the virus, or may indicate the possible range of the virus's source, the team found sufficient data to indicate that the initial virus outbreak spread among East Asians (especially Chinese), and the type A disease strain is rare Wuhan, but there are also certain cases in other regions such as Guangdong, so it is difficult to deduce that the source of the virus has a high chance of not being China.

In fact, it is not appropriate for scientific research to cite only the results without inquiring about the inferences in Luo Zhong. The research team has different assumptions about the unique geographical distribution of type A and B disease strains. One is that the degree of adaptation of the virus to different environments and human bodies is different. Type A disease strains are more suitable for the United States and Australia. The environment and population of Type B are more suitable for East Asia. If there is no mutation, it is difficult to overcome the resistance of East Asia. These explanations also cannot confirm the source of the virus. If Chen Yingxin or the workshop draws the results away from the assumption, thus demonstrating that China is not the source of the virus, it is obviously also inappropriate.

Public figures must be cautious

The source of the new crown virus is widely said, but there is no other way to find the answer than scientific research. Perhaps as the microbiologist Stephen Turner of Monash University in Australia said, the only fact that has been confirmed by science at this stage is that only viruses come from bats. Before more careful and accurate scientific research, no one should speculate on the source of the virus indiscriminately, or even spread rumors that have not been verified. For example, since Chen Yingxin ’s short film was uploaded to the Internet on April 12, it has had more than 380,000 hits, showing that the influence is not low. If some citizens do not know it, it is easy to think that scientific research has proved that the new coronavirus does not originate in China, and it is not the original intention of the relevant scientists.

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