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OPINION | The next pandemic could be even worse

2020-04-29T16:59:37.021Z


If we think of our fight against each and every infectious agent as a battlefield, which we should, then we should learn from our most effective armies about ...


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Editor's Note: Jamie Metzl is a member of the World Health Organization's International Advisory Commission on Human Genome Editing, a former National Security Council official and author of "Hacking Darwin: Genetic Engineering and the Future of Humanity." Andrew Hessel is the President of Genome Project-write and the President of Humane Genomics. Dr. Hansa Bhargava is Senior Medical Director at WebMD and MedScape. The opinions expressed in this comment are those of the authors; See more opinion articles on CNNe.com/opinion.

(CNN) - This is war.

A world war.

Not against a country or regime, but against a virus: an enemy invader that is as foreign to most people as invisible, and unaffected by humanity's borders, politics, or morale.

After slow and dangerous beginnings in China, Europe and the United States, the world is now mobilizing to face the covid-19 pandemic in a moment with all hands on it. This counterattack is already showing preliminary results, but much of our effort will be in vain if we fully demobilize once this battle is won.

There is a reason why the military does not demobilize after every war. To face continuous threats, our armies maintain continuous capabilities. Although we have faced dire pandemics before, we are now suffering unnecessarily because we have not applied their lessons to our ongoing war with deadly pathogens.

If any military man had failed as spectacularly as the governments of the world in the preparation and prevention of this crisis, his leaders would have been summarily dismissed. The commanders who would replace them would be judged on their ability to do everything possible to prevent the next crisis.

As the levers of state power and public health around the world are now in place, we can expect better results in the coming months, which may include the continued development of one or more covid-19 vaccines and therapeutic strategies. for critical care

But even once we have a vaccine, we cannot allow full demobilization because, despite how serious this virus is, future pandemics could be even worse.

The new coronavirus hits the rare sweet spot for infectious diseases. It causes disease, but many people have mild or asymptomatic symptoms, making it easier to spread. It was not so deadly that it immobilized its new hosts immediately or, as would be the case with Ebola, caused an immediate quarantine of the affected areas. It was successful in part because the real threat was not immediately recognized.

The world of biology is dynamic by definition, so there has always been the possibility of deadly viruses like this leaping from animals to humans. It has always been a question of when, not if it was going to happen. However, through our destruction of national habitats, population growth, international travel, industrial animal husbandry, and other actions, our species has massively exacerbated this threat.

But naturally occurring viruses could pale in comparison to viruses that could be created by new and powerful tools in synthetic biology, agents precisely designed to cause harm.

A recent article in the journal Nature Medicine evaluating the probable origins of the new coronavirus concluded that whatever the source of the outbreak itself, sars-cov-2 is more likely to occur naturally due to the relatively inefficient way of sequestering cells. human. In other words, if a malicious genetic engineer intentionally manipulated a virus to be deadly and contagious, it could do a much better job.

In 2017, the University of Alberta in Canada synthesized an extinct horsepox virus, a smallpox cousin, for around $ 100,000.

This science has advanced so rapidly and the cost has dropped so precipitously that the same feat could be accomplished today for just a few thousand dollars. Unlike nuclear weapons, the development of which requires the kind of massive infrastructure generally reserved for nation states, the development of a synthetic pathogen is now within the capacity of many groups or even individuals distributed throughout the world. The next pandemic may not be an accident of nature.

But if we think of our fight against each and every infectious agent as a battlefield, which we should, then we should learn from our most effective armies how best to prepare for what lies ahead.

Here is the plan:

1. Maintain essential capabilities: Soldiers in our fight against deadly pathogens are our public health officials, physicians, government planners, and data modelers. To develop the permanent capabilities we will need for this fight, we must invest the time and money necessary to prepare for rare but inevitable events. With disease outbreaks, pay a little now for preparation, or pay much later for a response, only with more human suffering added to the price tag. Once we have this staff, we must plan and train how our lives depend on it. They do it.

2. Develop global and local surveillance networks: the military invests massive resources in monitoring every action of their enemy through satellite networks, spies and data analysis. To prepare for the next pandemic, we must develop new sensor systems that can identify new infectious agents in real time and use advanced data analysis to identify troubling disease patterns long before a major outbreak arises.

3. Build and maintain a network of alliances: Few armies can succeed alone, and no country can protect itself from a deadly pathogen. Pandemic preparedness must become a central and ongoing component of international cooperation. The World Health Organization can play the central role in this process, but only if it has the resources, the staff and the mandate to succeed. We must make that happen.

4. Develop emergency response capacity: The military has expeditionary forces to take battle to the enemy wherever a threat originates. We need the same capabilities for pandemics. By the time an alarm is raised indicating a possible pathogenic outbreak, trained emergency response teams, both national and international, must be ready to mobilize and equipped with tools and authority to respond.

5. Forward deployed personnel and weaponry: Transporting personnel and equipment to distant locations is costly and time consuming, which is why leading armies deploy people and equipment near theaters where they will likely be needed. The organization of the US National Strategic Reserve may need revision to bring more medical equipment closer to the front lines in major urban centers. In recent years, the US government withdrew some of the staff from foreign countries working in disease prevention. As we are seeing now, if we do not fight the skirmish of a pathogen at its source, we may end up fighting a major war elsewhere.

6. Invest in the defensive weapons of the future: The military is always building the next generation of weapons and working to counter the latest innovations from the enemy. Now we need to step up our efforts to create vaccine platforms that can quickly counter new threats, as well as universal vaccines designed to attack entire classes of viruses. Here, the growing power of synthetic biology to rapidly design, build, and deploy countermeasures in near real time can be a powerful force for good.

There is little doubt that we were not prepared for the terrible and largely avoidable crisis we are facing now. Our poorly planned, under-resourced, and disorderly global response has caused more than 200,000 deaths, massively disrupted our lives, and caused billions of dollars in economic consequences.

We should be ashamed if they catch us unprepared next time.

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2020-04-29

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