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Editor's Note: Jorge G. Castañeda is a CNN contributor. He was Minister of Foreign Relations of Mexico. He is currently a professor at New York University and his next book, "America through Foreign Eyes," will be published by Oxford University Press in June.
(CNN Spanish) - Although logically the pandemic and its ravages have overshadowed the presidential campaign in the United States, that does not mean that the deadlines are lengthened, or that nothing happens. Furthermore, much has happened in recent weeks, which allows us to predict some of the distinctive features of the campaign, the November election and what comes next.
We already have several certainties.
We know that former Vice President Joe Biden will be the Democratic Party candidate, unless something unforeseen of some sort happens, like the medical one. We know that the other Democratic hopefuls have rallied around Biden, and that even Bernie Sanders and his many supporters are supporting him. We know that Biden will choose a woman as a dumbbell or companion for vice president, which will undoubtedly strengthen him in the segment of women voters in the American suburbs. And we know - now we will see it in some detail - that Biden will include in his program many of the progressive or left-wing measures proposed by his rivals, in particular by Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. This, as far as Biden and the Democrats are concerned.
On the side of Donald Trump, we know that he will be the candidate of the Republican Party. We also know that this time it will be more difficult than in 2016 for a third or fourth candidate (four years ago to be two) to subtract votes from Biden as they were subtracted from Hillary Clinton. We know that in key states like Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - where the election is played - Trump is tied or below Biden in the polls, for now.
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Finally, we know that their management of the coronavirus crisis has not been well regarded by many Americans, especially in terms of credibility and consistency. Now, we can also speculate, with some degree of certainty, that the economic crisis caused by the covid-19 will harm Trump's reelection prospects and favor Biden.
For two reasons. First, the acting president intended to focus his entire campaign on the supposed economic success of his first term and on mobilizing his base through his anti-immigrant rhetoric, in favor of possession of weapons and anti-abortion. The first pillar of this strategy has already disappeared. It is debatable when the recovery of the US economy will begin, but it seems unlikely that in terms of unemployment and income - and not only the Dow Jones index on the New York Stock Exchange - it will be at applause levels for November. Of the nearly 30 million Americans who will have lost their jobs in these months, how many will have recovered it for the elections?
The second reason lies in the pandemic itself. Millions of Americans must have realized during these months that their health system, and well-being in general, is inadequate. There was no team to conduct tests, to care for health workers, to treat critically ill patients (respirators), to care equally for black people. They saw how the response of the federal government and many states (California and Washington are exceptions) was much less than that of European countries such as Germany, or Asians such as South Korea or Japan.
They don't want this to happen again. At the same time, they realize that the problem is beyond the current crisis and the health system.
It's about nothing more and nothing less than rebuilding an American welfare state. And Biden, partly out of conviction, partly out of the need to unite the left or progressive wing of the Democratic Party, has adopted many of the theses that go in that direction.
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I list some: the federal minimum wage at $ 15 an hour; prohibition -with sanctions for non-compliance- of dismissals for trying to organize a union; prevent companies like Uber from classifying their employees as independent contractors and not as workers; free public higher education for families earning less than $ 125,000 a year; a plan to combat climate change much more ambitious than Obama's; and a universal health system that also goes beyond Obamacare, although it does not reach the Medicare for All of Sanders and Warren.
We could add several more measures, including the financing instruments of those already mentioned.
If Biden wins, he may not comply because he does not want to, or because he cannot. But the sum of the factors that lead the United States to reevaluate its social safety net, its taxation, and its attitude to climate change is becoming more powerful every day. We also know that.
Donald TrumpJoe Biden