What awaits the cruise industry after the coronavirus crisis?

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Cruise Passenger: Everything seems fine 3:33

(CNN) - When travelers arrive aboard the Zaandam, a cruise ship on the Holland America Line, they have access to nine levels of elegant accommodations, entertainment, and fine dining.

On the walk from the deck of the boat of more than 200 meters, a beautiful art gallery adjoins a giant screen cinema. The Lido deck has a gym and full-service spa.

That cornucopia of services has received guests on trips largely in the past 20 years.

But in late March, the ship had been transformed into an isolation room, and when it finally docked in Florida in early April, four passengers had died, two of whom had been diagnosed with covid-19.

Zaandam was one of many ships affected by the pandemic that stopped the cruise industry, and most of the world.

• The Zaandam and Rotterdam cruises crossed the Panama Canal late this Sunday

Due to the risk of infection, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended in mid-March that travelers postpone any planned cruise. That "no-sail order" will run until the US Secretary of Health and Human Services. USA cancel the public health emergency, CDC decides to modify or rescind the ruling, or 100 days after the publication of the order issued on April 15.

The cruise industry, which according to the International Association of Cruise Lines had profits of $ 150 billion worldwide in 2018, is now assessing the damage. However, despite the fact that the coronavirus continues to spread, some key industry players are already seeing signs of growth in the coming years.

A revival of the cruise industry would send thousands of people back to work and travelers to sunny ports around the world. While some cruises are eager to book, other tentative travelers have concerns about their health, medical emergencies, and money.

Holland America's Zaandam cruise ship experienced a Covid-19 outbreak in March. (Ivan Pisarenko / AFP / Getty Images)

How bad is this for the cruise industry?

In a quarterly report released April 3, Carnival Corporation, the world's largest travel and leisure company, predicted that the impact of the coronavirus could be severe.

"We have never before experienced a complete cessation of our cruise operations," the report reads, noting the high costs of repatriation of passengers, aid to the quarantined crew and the possibility of lawsuits related to the management of the pandemic by part of the corporation.

Wedbush analyst James Hardiman recently estimated that Carnival was losing $ 500 million in cash reserves each month.

But Carnival's shares, which by March 18 had fallen more than 82% from a peak in mid-January, got a boost when Saudi Arabian officials announced on April 6 that the country's sovereign wealth fund had acquired a stake. 8% in the company.

• More than 5,000 people locked up on cruise ships due to fears of the coronavirus

The Costa Deliziosa cruise ship was the last ship at sea operated by a large company due to the coronavirus pandemic. He docked in Italy on April 22. (PAU BARRENA / AFP via Getty Images)

"The industry will return and be stronger than ever," said Drew Daly, senior vice president of Dream Vacations, a subsidiary of World Travel Holdings, the largest cruise agency in the United States.

"We are seeing people booking in 2021," says Daly. "Based on the same period last year, we are seeing further growth."

And analysts at UBS, a global financial advisory firm, say cruise bookings in 2021 rose 9% in a recent 30-day period compared to the same period last year.

Both Daly and UBS point out that their numbers include new coronavirus-related cancellation reservations, but the Cruisecompete.com website told the Los Angeles Times that there were also new reservations.

Prices also remain strong.

Markus Stumpe, co-founder of cruise price tracking site Cruisewatch.com, found that on April 10, the average prices for cruises that departed between July 20, 2020 and June 21, 2021 were actually a 4 % higher than a comparable period a year ago. (There are still some relative bargains. By July, the first month Stumpe tested, prices were down 3%.)

Dedicated cruises are eager to set sail again

The many dedicated fans of cruise travel will play an important role in the recovery of the industry. Including Fred Cohen of Raleigh, North Carolina.

In mid-March, when the CDC issued the first "do not sail" order for cruises, Cohen purchased a 10-day southern Caribbean cruise departing in December 2020.

"People are getting sick, people are dying ... I have a lot of family in the New York area and it's really affecting them a lot," says Cohen. "But it is not the end of the world".

Cohen and his wife have sailed almost every year for the past seven years, and he believes the risk of infectious disease on cruise ships is somewhat overstated. "They get a bad rap for preventing virus disease," says Cohen.

"I am keeping my bet that this will be contained or there will be a vaccine by then," he explains. "Fortunately, if none of that happens and the cruise industry is still closed, they will simply book the cruise for later in the year."

What are cruise lines doing to protect the health of passengers?

For many travelers, the health risks of cruises will be an important consideration when deciding whether to book a trip.

"Cruise lines have extensive experience providing a clean and sanitized environment on board cruise ships in their daily procedures," wrote a representative of the International Association of Cruise Lines (CLIA) in an emailed statement.

"CDC's Ship Sanitation Program (VSP) provides a level of federal scrutiny and transparency for cruise line sanitation that is unique to the travel and hospitality industry." (While the VSP addresses gastrointestinal illnesses, not respiratory illnesses, some of its hygiene recommendations intersect with the CDC's recommendations for covid-19 prevention.)

In a mailed statement, Carnival Corporation Chief Communications Officer Roger Frizzell outlined the improved protocols including fever monitoring for passengers, plus additional sanitation and cleaning.

And while outbreaks of gastrointestinal illnesses like norovirus are occasional, the CDC says that acute intestinal illnesses on cruise ships are actually relatively rare.

Covid-19, of course, is much more deadly than a stomach virus. And when communicable disease cases occur, the CDC notes that close contact between cruise ship passengers facilitates the spread of the disease.

Both CDC and the cruise industry are working to address the problem in the wake of covid-19.

The CDC's extended "do not navigate order" requires cruise lines to develop operational plans, subject to approval by CDC and the United States Coast Guard, to address infection control and the outbreak response. (Details of these operational plans have not been released.)

While some have speculated that on-board HVAC systems could spread covid-19, it is not yet known if this is possible. The Department of Health and Human Services wrote in a February 8 letter about covid-19 and cruise ships that "the CDC has no current evidence to suggest that the virus spreads between ship rooms through the management system of air".

In response to questions about possible updates to cruise air filtration, a CLIA representative said in an emailed statement that "all options remain open for your consideration."

How cruise travelers can protect themselves

Given the continued risk of coronavirus, some travelers look for travel insurance as a way to ensure that medical treatment is covered if they contract the disease.

While coverage varies by companies and policies, Scott Adamski, United States Chief of Field Sales for AIG Travel, wrote in an email statement that many standard plans cover on-board treatment from the ship's doctor, treatment in port or transportation to another medical facility.

Medical evacuation, which can be very expensive when paid from the passenger's pocket, is also covered in some plans. That evacuation could range from commercial flights with an escort of medical providers to an air ambulance; Adamski emphasized the importance of knowing the details of an individual plan before making a purchase.

In the wake of the coronavirus crisis, thousands of cruise ships have turned to companies for refunds or credits. Most cruise lines have offered flexible cancellation and reservation policies in the midst of the pandemic.

But as the travel industry struggles to cope with the disruption, some wonder what will happen if future bookings are also canceled. Travel insurance can help, but as with health problems, the details of individual plans vary widely.

Travel insurance is unlikely to cover travelers if the cruise company cancels the cruise, according to Adamski. Travelers, he notes, should contact the cruise company for a refund or coupon. (Another option Adamski suggests is to contact your credit card company, which may have some provisions for canceling trips that you booked with the card.)

If a traveler decides to cancel a cruise due to their own concerns about the coronavirus, Adamski believes that reimbursement through travel insurance is unlikely. Covered reasons for cancellation are listed in individual policies and generally include things like medical emergencies and weather events.

"In general, canceling a trip just out of concern or fear of traveling is not covered by a travel insurance policy," Adamski wrote in his statement.

Adamski noted that more expensive "cancel for whatever reason" policies may offer additional flexibility to travelers who choose to cancel. Often, he wrote, they must be purchased within 14 days of the initial purchase.

What happens if the cruise company files for bankruptcy?

If your cruise line files for bankruptcy and the ship departs from a U.S. port, it will be covered, says attorney Christopher Kende.

"There is a requirement under the Federal Maritime Commission that cruise lines establish a bond to insure what is called unearned passenger revenue," says Kende, a marine law specialist at the firm Cozen O'Connor.

Even if the company is registered outside of the United States, or the ship has a flag from another country, Kende says your reservation will be covered in case of bankruptcy or other interruption.

If you sail from an international port, Kende notes that passengers may be more exposed to risk. "If it is not a cruise ship in the United States, it will probably depend on the law of the cruise departure point or the ship's flag," he explains.

Travel insurance can also help. According to Scott Adamski of AIG, some travel insurances include financial default coverage that would protect your money in the event of a bankruptcy filing. (As with other insurance matters, he noted that individual plans vary widely.)

Despite the industry's major financial problems, some analysts believe bankruptcy of the main lines is unlikely.

Cruise fanatic traveler Michael Bernabe is not discouraged by any of the cruise's possible pitfalls in uncertain times.

"We love sailing more than we fear cruise ships," says Bernabe of Simi Valley, California, who has traveled the world with his wife.

The Barnabas had planned to celebrate their 40th wedding anniversary with two separate Carnival cruises from Australia in March, stopping at Fiji, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea and the Great Barrier Reef.

When the trips were canceled, the couple had to choose between a cash refund and a cruise credit; Carnival offered them 200% of their original reservation if they took the credit.

"We re-booked as soon as they came back online," says Bernabe. "The first day they were available, we were online to re-book."

Cruise ships