Daniel Fernández Canedo
05/05/2020 - 20:00
- Clarín.com
- Opinion
Within hours of the entry into force of the measures to shrink the exchange segment called "cash with liquidation", the Central Bank tries to find the names of the buyers of dollars.
The Central, under the command of Miguel Angel Pesce considers that in the operations of recent weeks there was a speculative maneuver to raise the dollar to the heat of the expectation that Argentina could fall back into default in the event of not reaching to an agreement with most creditors starting next week.
In the agency they believe that the rise in the "cash count" after Easter inaugurated a rise process that brought the "exchange gap" (difference between the official and free dollars) above 70% , an exaggerated level since the official optics.
The increase in business in the CCL (absolutely legal operations) carried out by the sale and purchase of public securities and shares valued in dollars here and settled abroad was important in recent weeks.
The Central, since Monday, tries to cut the demand for dollars in this way, prohibiting companies that have received loans at a subsidized rate to pay wages or working capital . But the CCL continued its bullish path.
On the second day of the measures, the CCL had touched $ 119.84 with a rise of 6% that in one year accumulated 61%. The distance to the wholesale officer ($ 67) that day had climbed to 79% -
These days the negotiations reach about US $ 90 million a day and have an approximate cost of $ 2 per dollar, which represents an important margin for the four operators, which according to the Central, channel most of the operations.
An interesting point is that the CCL segment is developed under the authorization of the National Securities Commission, which is managed by an official appointed by the current government, which is Adrian Cosentino.
In the corridors of the Central it is commented that Consentino has not yet managed to access the lists of buyers and sellers of that circuit that, in the official vision, is "opaque recontra".
Could it be that the government wants to know the names just to check whether or not there were speculative maneuvers? The answer is part of the world of presumptions and conspiracy in times of increasing uncertainty about the country's economic future.
Just mention the audio that was widely circulated on the networks in which a well-informed assumption says that the government will reissue the old Peronist policy of nationalizing bank deposits. In the government they don't even want to talk about it and they rule out any possibility in that regard. One question is who will believe, and another why the parallel dollar is at $ 120.
The level of the "blue" dollar is not part of the official concerns because its turnover is very low and it was further narrowed with the mandatory isolation policy to face the coronavirus. But the level of achievement can be taken as an indicator of the fear that part of the savers have to whom they propose fixed-term rates of 26% per year compared to expected inflation above 45%, if things turn out more or less good to the government.
What the government does not hide, although the amount is reserved, is the waterfall of pesos that will spill over the economy in the coming weeks.
One is the Emergency Family Income ($ 10,000 bonus) for 9 million people. During April 91,300 SMEs had loans at a subsidized rate of 24% per year for about $ 170,000 million , to which are added the loans at zero rate and other social plans and almost all financed with the only source of financing that the government holds at the moment: the broadcast.
Officials say they are not afraid of having to issue strong in the coming months, but the arguments were loosened with the data from the April tax collection that only grew 11.6% over the previous year with a drop in real terms against inflation on the order of 30 points.
The emission forecasts for the next three months are based on the fiscal deficit estimated at $ 390,000 million in May, $ 380,000 million in June and $ 200,000 million in July. And to this we must add the maturities of bills in pesos that are not renewed. A true mountain of pesos that the government will have to administer, since the capital market is small and is wounded by mistrust due to the flirtation with the default of the economy minister, Martin Guzmán.
Two days after closing the debt swap proposal, on May 8 the deadline expires, the pressure from the government and the banks to get accessions to the new bonds seem to have not paid off.
The veterans of the Argentine financial swings do not believe in the possibility that the government will achieve the majorities necessary to achieve a successful swap and they bet that Albero Fernández will finally present an improvement to the proposal to avoid a total default that would be the eighth in history Argentina and would further complicate Argentina's delicate economic situation.