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Covid-19, more natural light for schools 0:37
CNN - The measures that some countries are beginning to adopt with the aim of reopening the schools that were closed to prevent the expansion of the coronavirus could cause a second wave of infections, according to some studies.
Most cases of covid-19 in children are mild, but some studies suggest that younger children may play an important role in transmitting the virus among themselves and to vulnerable adults, and that keeping schools closed longer may help stop the spread of the coronavirus.
A study conducted in China and published by the scientific journal Science last week suggests that keeping schools closed could reduce the number of infections and slow the progression of the pandemic.
Researchers from China, Boston and Italy conducted interviews in Wuhan, where the coronavirus was first detected, and in Shanghai, the most populous city in China.
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They estimated that eliminating the interactions that usually take place in schools attended by children and adolescents up to 14 years of age would allow a reduction in the order of 42% of the daily average of new cases. Reducing the interactions of children who usually have during vacation periods, meanwhile, would reduce new cases by 64%.
“In general, policies based on school closings are not sufficient to completely prevent a covid-19 outbreak, but they can have an impact on the dynamics of the disease and, therefore, on an increase in the capacities of hospitals, ”the researchers said.
The research claims that children ages zero to 14 are one-third as likely to be infected with coronavirus compared to adults, although experts told CNN that the study does not handle enough information to be reliable.
Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, says that the research is based on a trace of contacts and symptoms declared by the people themselves, so it does not record asymptomatic infections. It also only targets specific sites in China where there may be other factors affecting transmission, he explained.
A study published in the Lancet magazine in April in Shenzen, in southeast China, showed that children had the same risk of contracting coronavirus as the rest of the population, but rarely developed severe symptoms.
Another study published by the German infectious zoonotic disease research network in April suggested that children were less likely to be severely affected by covid-19, but did not establish whether they are less likely to become infected. Experts told CNN that this study has not yet been reviewed by peer researchers and that there were methodological issues that affected the possibility of drawing conclusions.
Despite reservations about the information available, Clarke agreed that countries should be cautious about reopening schools. "None of this is final, but it is forming an idea," he said. "At this stage when we do not know enough about the susceptibility of children to contract the virus and transmit it, we should err on the side of caution," he added.
Some countries like China, Taiwan, Denmark and Israel have already reopened schools, and others are considering doing so. The UK is evaluating opening schools for younger children on June 1st.
On the UK situation Clarke specifically said: "I think it is too early at this stage to reopen the schools."
"It could be a factor for the development of a second wave (of infections). Everything we do to some extent to lift restrictions will put upward pressure on the R rate, the R number, ”he explained, referring to the rate of reproduction, which shows how many people each person infected will transmit the virus on average. Therefore, it is a matter of choosing the measures "that exert the least amount of pressure to increase the R number," he said.
"Any opportunity for people to mingle will put upward pressure on that," he said.
Clarke added that since we know that children can transmit the flu, "it is not unreasonable to suspect" that they may spread the coronavirus.
Students at the Korshoejskolen Public School in Randers, Denmark remain separated during the lunch break after the centers reopen on April 15.
The professor pointed out that the Science study only analyzed social distancing and not the effects of other measures such as the disinfections that are carried out in many of the schools to which children are returning.
In Denmark, for example, deep cleaning of the classrooms was carried out, the desks were placed well apart and where possible the classes were held outdoors when the youngest students returned to the centers on April 15 after one month of closure.
Dr Tom Wingfield, Senior Clinical Professor and Honorary Consulting Physician at Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, told CNN that there are many different ways to reopen schools, including the possibility of partial reopens for certain age groups and the implementation of staggered schedules.
"I don't think there is any evidence to help us say whether one of these things is better than the other. But I think the overall evidence does show that school closings will reduce transmission, along with another series of interventions for social distancing, ”he said.
He added that it is also important to consider how children interact and "how is the family unit, how many vulnerable people are in those family units." "I imagine that will change slightly from country to country in terms of intergenerational households and especially, for example, among certain ethnic minority groups."
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Clarke warned that when schools closed for the summer during the swine flu epidemic in 2009, "normal cases fell like a stone and then rose again in mid-September."
"It takes a few weeks for these things to get going," he added.
The number of covid-19 cases has fallen in many countries after schools were closed and other measures of social distancing were implemented. Now that it seems that governments could safely lift some restrictions, many are eagerly waiting for children to return to schools, especially younger ones, so that parents can return to their jobs.
But until it is known how much children actually infect, governments must be vigilant to ensure that returning to school does not mean returning to the worst levels of the pandemic.
coronavirus