Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-05-14 07:00
Last update date: 2020-05-14 07:00Amidst the anti-revision laws, Hong Kong's political territory has shifted, and the district boards have changed. And this year, the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Central Liaison Office have successively criticized Hong Kong's current affairs and opened the era for the central government to directly address Hong Kong affairs. The political community is very concerned about the changes that will be brought about by the legislative elections held in September this year. Among them, the Honorary Chairman of the Liberal Party, Tian Beijun, led the establishment of the "Hope Alliance", which advertised the middle line. Yuan Michang, an honorary lecturer of the Department of Politics and Public Administration of the University of Hong Kong and a former policy president of the New Democratic Party, was selected to represent Hong Kong Island on the platform. Yuan Michang accepted an interview with "Hong Kong 01" and talked about his political blueprint.
Yuan Michang believes that in the current political situation in Hong Kong, whether the democratic faction gets more than half of the seats, or the establishment faction continues to dominate the parliament, the final result is one country, one system, and Beijing takes over Hong Kong. He pointed out that the purpose of the platform is to differentiate itself between the pan-population and the establishment system and become a key minority. It plays the role of "key balancer" in the political landscape of Hong Kong to achieve Balance of power and provide Hong Kong with a balance of power. Way out.
There are comments that Hong Kong needs an "endgame" (Endgame), the whole system will be brought back to life, Yuan Michang does not agree. He pointed out that Hong Kong did not have this condition before Endgame was needed. The order of "one country, two systems" still has the value and necessity of salvation. He described the September Legislative Council election as a "referendum," letting the public express that Hong Kong needs a way to live, not a road to death.
Legislative Council Election-Interview with Yuan Michang
Next: Interview ｜ Yuan Michang: No hate for Ye Liu Shuyi, "I have become He Junyao"
"Regardless of the result of the pan-Chinese democratic system, the result is one country, one system"
In Hong Kong, there were many people who claimed to be "centrist" in the past, but most of them were silent or forced to return to the border. There are no real success stories. At least those who are still active in today's political circles, there is no obvious "centrist".
Yuan Michang pointed out that the middle route he represented was different from the so-called "centrists" in the past. He pointed out that the general background facing Hong Kong today is quite grim, and there are wrestling between China and the United States. Hong Kong is standing in the "buffer zone" between the East and the West. Beijing has no room for concessions on the Hong Kong issue. On the other hand, both the yellow and blue sides are dominated by populist forces and go to extremes. The dark yellow and dark blue dominate the two camps, and the tension is growing.
Therefore, with regard to the follow-up impact of the September Legislative Council election, Yuan Michang speculated: "If more than half of the democratic faction is equivalent to calling Beijing directly, then Beijing will definitely intervene or even directly take over Hong Kong; if the formed faction continues to control the parliament, they will only He will continue to obey Beijing and hand over Hong Kong's future. No matter the former or the latter, the result will be one country, one system, and both ends will be the same. Both blue and yellow will make Hong Kong go to perdition, which is unacceptable. "
The "key balancer" voter "referendum" of Hong Kong politics decides the life and death of one country, two systems
Yuan Michang analyzed that the current situation is somewhat similar to that of the Cold War. Because Hong Kong has a "buffer" role, even if the two sides are hostile, at least a certain degree of power balance is maintained. Therefore, the political balance within Hong Kong is very important. Since the United States passed the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Bill" and the United States has increased its say on the Hong Kong issue, the democratic faction will not only be beaten, and Hong Kong will not fall completely to the mainland of China, and it has reached a sufficiently balanced state. But when the democrats went one step further, it showed that they would compete for more than half of the seats in the Legislative Council and elect the "yellowing" chief executive. This is equivalent to calling Beijing directly to influence the balance. Beijing has no choice. In order to avoid Hong Kong falling to the United States, it will definitely Strengthen control of Hong Kong, and even put an end to "one country, two systems." He reiterated again and again that this should not be the case.
Therefore, Yuan Michang believes that the middle line he advertised is not a fixed political opinion, but beyond the political opinion, pointing directly to the question of the survival of "one country, two systems" and playing a role of "balanced hand" in international relations between the two factions. Maintaining a balance of power in the overall political situation in Hong Kong will neither fall toward the Democrats nor the establishment / Beijing. He described this election as a "referendum", allowing Hong Kong people to have a third choice beyond the blue and yellow poles at this critical turning point in 2020 to ensure that "one country, two systems" will not go to extinction because of imbalanced forces.
Yuan Michang pointed out: "In the past, the democrats included Liang Guoxiong and Huang Yumin, and the institutionalists included Jasper Yu and Tan Yaozong. Both sides will fight, but the overall balance of power can still be achieved." He believes that even though there have been political disputes in Hong Kong in the past, the overall system can still The operation continues, but the forces are now out of balance, the central government, the SAR government, and the establishment faction have huge advantages, and the system loses its due effectiveness. The response of the democrats is to put forward 35+ and push it to the other extreme, which is also a dead end. Therefore, Yuan Michang hopes that by obtaining a key minority of seats, Hong Kong's political landscape will "regain its balance."
In 2003, Tian Beijun led the Liberal Party's rebellion and became the key to pulling down 23 pieces of legislation. This year, Young Master Tian established a platform to advertise the middle course. (Profile picture)
Talking about 23 positions, "Public opinion is so, how can we support it?"
The blueprint is very beautiful. How does the platform work when it falls to the specific operational level? What other issues can verify the position of this intermediate platform? Yuan Michang cited an important example. The establishment faction and central officials have repeatedly referred to Article 23 of the Basic Law. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, Tan Yaozong, "opened his mouth" and expressed the hope that the legislation can be completed before August next year.
Yuan Michang pointed out: "This (23 issues) is already a time of verification, you can see how we do it." He mentioned that 2020 will be the central government's total settlement of Hong Kong's governance since 2003, because Beijing has accumulated a lot of dissatisfaction with Hong Kong and will usher in policy changes. He pointed out that in 2003, the Liberal Party reversed and pulled down 23 pieces of legislation, but the Liberal Party has now turned to the side: "Mr. Arita Kitato is here. This (the platform ’s position on Article 23) is self-evident. In the current public opinion In the circumstances, your (government) consultation is completely inadequate, and you cannot tell everyone what you want to do. How do you tell everyone to support you? "Yuan Michang promised that on such an important issue as 23, he will definitely stand up to Hong Kong people. Aside.
Last year's anti-revision demonstrations broke out. Front-line protesters believed that the current system was no longer valid and advocated "scramble" and "Endgame." This year, the Democrats advocated "35+" as the first step in breaking the game. (Profile picture / photo by Luo Junhao)
I think Hong Kong is not the time for Endgame "Blast the system, the PLA will rush to restore the system"
During the anti-revision demonstrations last year, many anti-revisionists cited the classic dialogue of "We are in the Endgame now." In the movie "The Avengers 3", describing Hong Kong ’s Bad situation. They believe that the core values of Hong Kong have been destroyed after the police cracked down and the government ignored the civil demands. Therefore, they advocated "scramble", pushed the existing system of Hong Kong to the "end game", renegotiated "one country, two systems", and cut back on retraining. Way out. This year, more than half of the democratic elections in the Legislative Council are considered to be the first step in "breaking the game."
Yuan Michang disagrees with this interpretation.
Yuan Michang pointed out that the democrats believe that the existing system "Endgame" can regain its vitality and force Beijing to renegotiate. There is an important prerequisite: the bursting of the Chinese economic bubble (commonly known as "branch explosion"), the Chinese Communist Party ’s Governance is shaken, but this is not realistic. He pointed out that even if there is a weakness in China's governance, it cannot be interpreted as a political crisis in the short term.
He further explained that the Democrats ’strategy is based on several important assumptions:“ First, they saw that from June last year onwards, or even after the District Council elections, Beijing would not take action. Their (Democratic) assumption is that China cannot fail Hong Kong is a financial center, so I wo n’t do it; the second hypothesis is that Beijing is very afraid of the sanctions of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act because Beijing has not acted until recently (the two offices fired); The third assumption is that if I am a democratic faction, I can use "scramble" and "35+" to achieve my goal, and Beijing will throw a mouse and don't dare to stop us. "However, Yuan Michang pointed out that no one has verified these assumptions. Moreover, after the pneumonia epidemic and the growing conflict between China and the United States, Beijing ’s deployment has changed at any time.
"Hong Kong ’s sovereignty is in the hands of China today. You will explode the system. It ’s a big deal that the central government sent the People ’s Liberation Army to rush over and cancel the" one country, two systems ". Even as Beijing likes, it will rebuild the" one country, two systems. " Come down, but at least you will not make such a boring, meaningless bet. "Therefore, Yuan Michang believes that Hong Kong is far from the time to talk about Endgame, even if Endgame, the result will not be what the democrats think. The best choice is to drop ink in the middle and balance the forces. He even refers to the "scramble" thinking, which is actually a medicine guide that turns Hong Kong into a bomb and gunpowder: "I have never seen a medicine guide still exist after a bomb explodes, which is impossible."
The United States passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act last year. Yuan Michang believes that this can lead to another balance between China and the United States. (Profile picture)
Ji Dang "an opponent that the central government should also pay attention to"
In the political circles of Hong Kong, the position in the middle is extremely difficult to stand, and Yuan Michang tried to find a breakthrough in this regard. So, has Western District contacted him so far to discuss the issue of election coordination? Yuan Michang made it clear that he did not. He believes that when the route he represents has sufficient support itself, it does not need to be blessed by any party, including the West Loop. What Yuan Michang hopes to do is not to be a "sound bug" on either side, but an "opponent that the central government also needs to pay enough attention to."
If the council is dominated by one faction, "Who is the minority, I will help"
Now that the platform has a clear enough position to play a key minority, once the platform's results in the election are not as good, or although the seats are obtained, but one of the democratic / institutional groups has obtained more than half of the seats, the key minority cannot be achieved. What contingency plan? "This is not what we want to happen, but if it does happen, our general direction is balance of power. So which side is the minority, I will help the side."
[Hong Kong Departs the Grand League] Uninvited Tian Beijun Yuan Michang Yuan: Better, Help Me Mingzhi
It is said that Tian Beijun invited Yuan Michang and Ye Liu on Hong Kong Island to approve "the middle of the wall".
[Interview] Yuan Michang is uneasy for Rong Haien: The New Democratic Party is ruining the party's identity
Legislative Council Election 202001 Political Situation Tian Beijun Basic Law Article 23