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(CNN) - Two weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Arthur has become the first storm of the year.
Two planes from the U.S. Air Force Reserve are slated to investigate this system on Sunday to determine how organized the storm is and whether it is intensifying or not.
Currents will be the primary short-term concern for areas from northeast Florida to the North Carolina coast.
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"Those involved off the coast of North Carolina should closely monitor the progress of this system, as it could produce gusty winds and heavy rain on Monday," says the National Hurricane Center. Currently, tropical storm warnings are in effect from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.
We are also following up on a frontal system that stretches from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast and is bringing severe flooding and storms to those areas, as this system continues eastward it will also begin to interact with the Tropical storm Arthur.
"Arthur could be pushed into the sea, or it could be engulfed by the frontal system and essentially combine," explains Haley Brink, a CNN meteorologist.
"Depending on how fast this frontal system moves east, it could help push Arthur out to sea and further from the United States. However, there is also a high pressure system to the north that could affect Arthur's direction, perhaps taking it further inland. ”
Warm waters of the Gulf Stream
Currently, the storm is in unfavorable water temperatures for any major intensification. However, as you move through the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream, there will be a narrow window of opportunity for the storm to strengthen. Sea surface temperatures remain above average across the Atlantic, except for the colder North Atlantic.
The tropics are heating up around the world
The Pacific Ocean areas have also had an interesting start to their tropical season.
On April 25, the One-E Tropical Depression formed in the southern Baja California region of Mexico, marking the first tropical depression recorded in April for the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
This is in contrast to the western Pacific, which has just had its eighth earliest start to a tropical season since 1950.
The official Atlantic seasonal forecast does not come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until May 21. But there are more than a dozen initial forecasts already published and the general consensus is that the Atlantic is already in an active season.
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