Lockdown or loosening - the measures in the fight against the corona virus have consequences. Corona expert Christian Drosten assesses the current situation and uses an astonishing picture.
- The corona epidemic determines life in Germany.
- Virologist Christian Drosten speaks in the NDR podcast "Coronavirus Update" about the current situation in Germany and the middle ground between business and medicine.
- Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus * and the corona news from Germany. We also offer you the current number of cases in Germany on a map. The following recommendations for corona protective measures are currently available.
Berlin - In order to slow the spread of the corona virus, the government in Germany has implemented strict corona measures. The principle followed the much-cited “hammer and dance” model. If infection chains can no longer be tracked, the "hammer" comes out. The lockdown in Germany has had consequences for the economy. Now there are loosenings.
"We are currently in the dance phase. In a dance with a tiger, ”virologist Christian Drosten * from the Berlin Charité describes the current situation. Whether the tiger can let go of the leash or whether it will attack you. In the NDR podcast (41), the Corona expert discusses a study that examined the interests of the economy and health protection. And, in his view, there is a "golden middle ground" between these two interests.
Corona expert Drosten: There is a “golden middle ground” in business and health
"In terms of quality, the end result of this study is robust," said Drosten. The virologist encourages everyone to read this study by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research. Many aspects would be included in the study and the result would be a very realistic picture. In his opinion, the scientists would come to an interesting conclusion. “It is an important contribution to science,” says Drosten.
In the study, epidemiological and economic simulations show different scenarios. The result: A strong, rapid loosening would harm the economy. Gradual easing is preferable from an economic perspective and also in terms of health policy.
The scientists chose the period until autumn 2021 for their simulation. Until then, Virologist Drosten believes it is likely that a corona vaccine will be available.
Video: Virologist Drosten criticizes politics
That is why there is an ideal reproduction number R for Germany
According to the scientists' findings, the ideal reproduction number R * is R = 0.75. The reproduction number R denotes the number of people who are infected by a case on average. This cannot be read from the registration data, but only through statistical procedures. According to the Robert Koch Institute, the number of reproductions is currently R = 0.75 .
Slight loosening with a reproduction number of 0.75 would be associated with a higher added value of about 26 billion euros, can be read in the press release to the study.
A tightening of the measures would therefore result in higher economic costs in every scenario. A reproduction number of 0.5 would cause additional economic costs of 1.1 percent of the economic output in 2020 and 2021, which corresponds to 77 billion euros.
A further opening with a reproduction number of 1, on the other hand, would be associated with considerably greater economic costs, the researchers have found. On top of that, more than 20,000 additional deaths are expected.
“There are no conflicting interests between business and health. It's a common interest, ”says Christian Drosten. There is no point in opening everything because illness in general also has economic consequences. In addition, with an R value of 0.75, the number of deceased would be less than 10,000.
@C_drosten discusses a study by @ifo_institut and @Helmholtz_HZI in the podcast. This describes that in the # SARSCoV2 pandemic, the interests of the economy and the interests of the health system do not conflict. # COVID19 @NDRinfo https://t.co/DffthtjB10
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin (@ChariteBerlin) May 14, 2020Incidentally, the number of reproductions is one of the decisive criteria for which loosening is implemented and when. You can find information on the current status (May 17) of the easing in the various federal states in the overview at Merkur.de *. However, the question arises as to how high the basic reproductive number is for other diseases.
Is the corona virus going to go away on its own? An expert gives hope.
ml
List of rubric lists: © dpa / Christophe Gateau