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Editor's Note: Jeffrey D. Sachs is a professor and director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. The opinions expressed in this comment are the author's own. See more opinion articles at CNNE.COM/OPINION
(CNN) - Instead of an imaginary "tradeoff" between the revival of the economy and the protection of health, President Donald Trump's policies are causing a great depression and tens of thousands of deaths at the same time. This is because there is no tradeoff between economy and health, except in Trump's fantasy. Unless people trust their safety in the midst of the pandemic, they will not return to normal life. By allowing a premature reopening, which ensures that the epidemic will unleash, it is highly likely that Trump has condemned the United States to economic collapse.
The fantasist promotes magical thinking, and perhaps even believes it himself. Trump said the virus was not a threat. He said it would disappear in April. He said he was completely under control. He said in March that we had all the evidence we needed.
The epidemic is controllable when the Government is serious. Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Taiwan, among others, have kept deaths below 10 per million inhabitants, compared to 271 per million in the United States. Those other countries implemented public health policies at the national level; The United States did not.
With the deaths of covid-19 in the USA in the 90,000, and almost certainly higher based on a comparison of deaths this year and last year, Trump is now trying to discredit the death count. In Trump's fantasy world, there are no deaths if they are not reported.
Trump's maneuvers will also not save the economy, which is in freefall. States can open now and thus spread more disease and death. But again, economic fantasy will not replace reality. Consumers will not start buying suddenly. Builders will not suddenly build buildings when so many are empty or underused. Some of Trump's supporters may head to crowded places, and if so, many will contract the virus, but most Americans won't.
Of the record 20.5 million jobs lost in April, most won't return soon, whether states declare their economies open or not. Continuous spread of the virus itself will block any significant rapid recovery. So will profound structural changes that will cause a significant, though unknown, proportion of current job losses to be permanent.
Here are some of the jobs that aren't making a comeback: E-commerce will crowd out many traditional retail jobs. Large retail chains are now bankrupt week after week. The result is that many retail jobs, a decrease of 2.1 million compared to March and April 2020, are unlikely to return. The jobs created as a result of online shopping will not be the same as those lost in physical stores.
Many commercial companies will reorganize their workflows to allow for much more work from home, and this will leave the office complexes sparsely populated. Many companies will reduce their space, which means that new commercial buildings will remain depressed for years to come.
New oil and gas drilling has collapsed and will not recover to past levels due to long-term excess in world oil markets and collapse in oil and gas prices. Travel and tourism will continue to weaken as long as the epidemic is not controlled, keeping employment numbers in accommodation, restaurants, leisure and entertainment low.
Trump's remaining idea is to force companies to return from China and rebuild their supply chains in their homes. This is yet another fantasy. By intensifying attacks on China, including new measures to isolate Chinese companies from American semiconductor technology, Trump will crush the growth prospects of much of the United States' high-tech industry, whose business includes international markets, including the China's vast population. Trump's move will invite Chinese retaliation and speed up the day China competes with the United States. in various semiconductor manufacturing and design dimensions, including specialized AI and 5G chips.
An obvious area of retaliation will be for China to buy Airbus planes instead of Boeing. Even before the pandemic, Boeing was in a very deep crisis due to its gross mismanagement of the 737 Max. Trump's failure to contain the epidemic and his intensified attacks on China will deepen Boeing's problems. Boeing shares fell 2% on May 15, the day after Trump's new measures against China, and Boeing shares fell more than 70% from the peak of March 1, 2019.
Trump will try to save dying companies, no doubt including his own family business. It will try to save the oil and gas sector, although no bank will touch it. It will support failed companies of friends, sidekicks, and campaign contributors. He will lie, try to hide data, blame others, and cause an ever deeper disaster.
But there are three true steps to emerge from the new great depression.
First, and with the utmost urgency, we must end the epidemic through public health measures (testing, tracking, and quarantine) that Trump has consistently neglected.
Second, we must work with other countries, including China, to stop the epidemic worldwide so that trade and travel can resume safely, and so that the millions of jobs that depend on trade, transport and tourism are restored, at least in part.
Third, we must build new industrial and service sectors, not prop up the old and dying. Recovery will not be achieved through oil and gas fracking, but through a boom in US companies producing solar panels, wind turbines, advanced batteries, advanced electric vehicles, and smart grid hardware and software; combined with a service industry boom based on new models of low-cost healthcare, education, and office work, combining online and in-person service delivery.
By being smart and fair, we could expect new high-tech industries, more shared free time, shorter travel, cleaner skies, universal access to affordable health services and higher education, and a guaranteed wage for all workers.
For all this, we need a new administration and Congress and a new approach for our nation. Until then, Trump's fantasy world is our nightmare. Endure. A new dawn is coming.
Recession