Trailer for opening Netanyahu trial • The process comes to an end in a political-media process and should not be viewed as the result of a law enforcement process that duly reaches the court's doorstep • And even before the sovereignty hearings, Jordan did not show goodwill toward Israel

• Mandelblit and Ohana at the Justice Minister exchange ceremony

  Photo: 

  Shlomi Amsalem / GPO

In a biography written by Michael Bar-Zohar about Ben-Gurion, he quotes Shimon Peres, who said during the Hishash affair (1960), that all of one witness "was threatened with investigation and revelations ... if, through fear and extortion, one can achieve everything from the leadership, After all, the use of these measures will increase and become a morbid society. "

Israel is now a "morbid" society. The trial of this legal "creature" who is both a prime minister and a Knesset member and also has a twin who is an alternate prime minister, is a prominent manifestation of the phenomenon. The trial comes at the end of a political-media process and should not be seen as the result of a normal law enforcement process that duly enters the court. This does not mean that the court in Jerusalem, where Netanyahu's trial will open this week, will not start a new process cut off from the anti-democratic tsunami that created the indictments. The judges are independent and there is a likelihood of not sharing the crazy impetus that prompted the media, police and prosecutors in the investigative mask.

Enough of Gilad Arden's reminder to understand: Now that the Hirsch files are about to be closed, openly and clearly torpedoed by what Peres described - everyone "collects confidential material to acquire status." But it's not everyone but certain communications captains, The police and the prosecutor's office, and even senior officials of the former headquarters. 

Arden ruled that it is almost impossible today for the government to appoint a commissioner of police. That means the police decide who will head and lose control, as did Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, in his conduct in the prime minister's cases, and most recently in the matter of appointing the state's attorney. Mandelblit has already resigned? 

The book is a symbol of what is described in a new American book, "In Depth" - an attempt to look into the issue of the "State of the Deep" with serious research. Is there such a thing? The book's author, the journalist-winning journalist David Road, disapproves of the definition, but it is understandable There is a mechanism called the "permanent government." That is, a walking culture minister, a culture minister comes, and a park justice minister and a justice minister step out of the parking lot, but the tune of Dina Zilber and Mandelblit's Avichi remains. 

In the US, government surveys state that a huge majority of them are Democrats if not left of it. But in Israel, there is also no turnover, and the government has almost no effect on the prosecution. Moreover, there is a rally that goes beyond government officials and includes intelligence and enforcement services and past years. The military establishment, too, includes a symbiosis with newspapers and senior reporters and TV news channels, and includes the unified Twitter army among all this big glue. 

The bottom line is that the bottom line is the publisher of a most popular newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, the governor of Pink in a large group of ministers and Knesset members. Everything beyond that, ie the transcripts of "investigative" conversations on behalf of advertisers, is an eye-popping sand. There is a direct connection from the secret recordings to the street demonstrations. General Pinochet has expressed himself many times in explicit incitement to Netanyahu. General MacArthur or perhaps Crystal is blasting violence in Twitter statements such as: "The rage builds up in small apartments, the rooms ... Now the rage is mounting. Tomorrow we will work full force. " 

While Pinochet is preoccupied with marijuana profits, MacArthur seems to be an idealist for sacrifice - and therefore dangerous. This is the so-called "information war," which is a crucial part of the regime's appeal. All of this is connected to the "permanent government" leaks that work to get a pre-conviction, also in public opinion, but also in the mind of the attorney general. 

The king said

Even before the sovereignty debates, Jordan did not show goodwill toward Israel. But the danger lies not with Amman, but at The Hague

The Jordanians are the strangest political phenomenon in relation to Israel. In 1948, contacts were made with King Abdullah. He warned, nevertheless, that did not stop him from invading Judea and Samaria and attacking the Jewish community, especially in the Jerusalem area, Mount Hebron and the center of the center. 

On the eve of the Six Day War, King Hussein was warned not to intervene in the war; It swept past Nasser's pressures and allowed Egyptian forces to prepare in areas that only their mention could cause a stroke, as expressed in the evening of '73 Moshe Dayan. The war on the eastern front in 1967 ended with a reconnaissance force of a reserve brigade galloping across Jordan toward Amman. According to then-chief of staff Yitzhak Rabin, only a frightened demand by the Americans caused the force to stop and retreat. 

During the pre-Yom Kippur War, Hussein issued at least twice warnings about Egypt and Syria's war intentions. In September 1970, Israel "absorbed" Palestinian terrorists in the Jordan Valley as prisoners who fled the massacre of the legion of Palestinian residents. Later, Israel acted against an attempt by Syria to invade Jordan, thus saving the Hashemite regime from shame. That didn't stop Hussein from sending armor to Syria to fight the IDF in October '73. 

Now Abdullah II is threatening a confrontation with Israel, if he applies the law and sovereignty over the Jordan Valley, to which he has no right. The dilemma is between tension and fear of temporarily undermining stability, and the implementation of a political move that Gen. Gershon HaCohen defines as a "declaration of independence." 

There are many historical and strategic reasons why Israel should establish its hold on East Avenue, and the only significant way is to apply sovereignty and deepen civilian grip on the ground. But changing the national historical trend may be the more important consideration. Israel has stopped years ago - in the Netanyahu era - the downward trend in all respects. But it was constantly subjected to a strategic system of extortion on the part of Jordan, and for the Gaza Strip, extortion depended on Egypt, which provides a diplomatic umbrella to Hamas whenever the IDF seems to be on the verge of breaking tools. 

The Jordanians received levers for internal intervention through Israel through the peace agreement. The Magnetometer affair, three years ago, reached the brink of flare because of the embassy worker's shooting and the holding of Amman's embassy workers as hostages. This year, Jordan revealed a lack of goodwill in the areas of the Arava and Naharim areas. As the country that lives on water supplies from Israel, the intention is to utilize the peace agreement for the purpose of humiliation and submission of Israel as a sponsor. Obviously, a unilateral step such as the application of Israeli law in the valley is an appropriate answer to Abdullah 2.

It turns out that the main deterrent against Israel is not Jordan or the Palestinians but the International Criminal Court in The Hague. There are those in the government who believe that applying sovereignty in one full step will result in a decision in The Hague to launch an investigation against Israel on war crimes. There is, of course, concern about the arrests of Israeli personalities, uniforms and non-uniforms. 

In the present age, the real enemy of Israel is the international left with its constituents, the EU and international organizations such as the Criminal Court. Arabs, at least at this point, are not a deterrent. In the face of Jordan, the problem is that the Jordanians understand that there is too much discrepancy between the positions of the security establishment and the prime minister as the political leader. That is why it encourages them to get into the expanding crack. They see that the more threatening they are, the greater the opposition of the securityists and their escort choir.

The reservations that exist among some of the ministers on the issue lead to ideas of applying the law in a phased manner: Maale Adumim, Ariel and Gush Etzion first. There is a feeling that such a move will not lower the ceiling in The Hague and the EU. Then gradually complete the move. The slogan is to make it smart, not wasteful and done. 

Prime Minister Netanyahu has been talking about the problem of international law as a strategic threat for years. This was apparently one of the reasons that Mandelblit was appointed as legal advisor as an expert on international law. In the meantime, he seems to be more interested in the foundations of local government, and international law is lacking in international presence.

Will Iran collapse?

Iran is bubbling socially and politically, public confidence has crashed, and now it is best to beware of the provocation of the Ayatollah regime 

Apparently, the Ayatollah regime in Iran has never been closer to collapse. In November 2019, severe riots broke out in many parts of the Islamic Republic. Economic centers were attacked. According to various surgeons, it was a completely different uprising from the 2009 riots following the election forgery, which once again re-elected Ahmadinejad. Then there were elite protesters, layers of intellectuals, students and the middle class with political consciousness. At the end of last year, about a decade later, it was a working class uprising.

Riot in the periphery draws oxygen from the center. Signs of effective underground organizations were recorded.

The outbreak of the Corona epidemic in Iran, as early as December according to various reports by doctors in hospitals, should have added more weight to the pressure on the government. The 80-year-old Khamenei seems to have a short political or health life. An article in The New Yorker quotes an Iranian source as saying: The Iranian system is built around Khamenei like the solar system - "What happens if you remove the sun from the solar system? Chaos." 

In this, as the crises increase, the Revolutionary Guards are strengthened; The method is fundamentally Histadrutic. The shifts are increasingly taking government domains out of government control and annexing them to self-management by them. Apart from the cyber attack on the port is important in Strait of Hormuz, if the port is a property of the Revolutionary Guards - it makes the attack more important. As the institution's raid on the Tehran nuclear archive has created serious internal shocks at various levels of the regime. Purges took place and internal suspicion soared. Two secret nuclear facilities that were not on the international radar were then revealed, one of which was a military experiment site. Following the raid, the Iranians shredded the site.

Iranian public confidence in leadership following the Corona crisis has crashed. This is because the government has consciously refused to take the necessary steps to curb the epidemic so as not to show weakness and vulnerability.

These all lead to the conclusions on paper, pointing to an imminent crash. But it is doubtful whether this will happen. Indeed, the Corona epidemic and the terrible economic deterioration create a situation in which Iranian citizens struggle for their daily survival, which is convenient for a dictatorial regime. According to this analysis, Maduro in Venezuela and the rest of Assad in Syria should have fallen long ago. 

Some shells of the regime may be dropping, but the hard core of the Revolutionary Guards has become a state within a state. The recent successful satellite launch indicates that the Iranians continue to gamble on the military-security level, and may also want to create a distraction against Israel or the US for security reasons.

The Ayatollahs are also waiting to see what will happen to the Corona in the upcoming US election. Democratic victory will restore nuclear agreement and ease sanctions. Trump's victory may force Iranians to enter into purposeful negotiations on improved nuclear agreement from Israeli-American perspective.

delusional

The mysterious death of the Chinese ambassador, and his past duties, cause paranoia without proof. Still, not quiet

The way you look at it, the death of Chinese ambassador two days after the US Secretary of State's visit, looks like an episode in a television series. "The Americans" corner of "Homeland". Anyway, I'm not quiet. And not just because there's also a movie called "The Death of a Chinese Gambling Agent."

Chinese Ambassador Do Wei // Photo: IP

The Soviet genre is of some kind of death in a hotel room. Also in Washington. See the death of Soviet defector Walter Krivicki. Edward Snowden has taken refuge with the Russians and Julian Assange has been enjoying their patronage for a while. Leaking correspondence and intelligence has caused severe tension between Washington and the governments of Germany and Brazil. To the Russians it certainly helps.

Tensions in the US-China Triangle invite treatment of "Active Majors" (invigorating actions). This is a classic method of Russian services. The deviation from the genre is the names of the Chinese ambassador to his home, in his home. Ambassador to Ukraine, which is an oxidation pool for intrigue in the Russia-Ukraine triangle and the Trump administration, there are suspects on the international level, but for now it's just paranoia without evidence.