Bigard or Raoult in 2022: should the hypothesis of an “outsider” worry Macron?

Antoine Bristielle is associate professor of social sciences and doctoral student at Sciences Po Grenoble. Tristan Guerra is a doctoral student at Sciences Po Grenoble.

Some editorial writers and commentators ironically wonder if Jean-Marie Bigard, the author of a notorious “coup de gueule”, will not soon return to government (himself seems to be considering it seriously), and others are considering more seriously the support of the very popular Professor Raoult for a hostile candidacy for the executive in 2022. François Ruffin says he is ready to “pick up the flag” for the next presidential election and the Elysée does not hide his fear of seeing the emergence of an anti figure soon -system capable of catalyzing popular anger and, in so doing, threatening the qualification of the outgoing President in the second round of the next presidential election.

Scalded by the brutal and unexpected mobilization of the yellow vests in the fall of 2018, attentive to the protests that are rumbling on social networks which have become the organizing vector for new mobilizations, concerned about the media "rants" from certain personalities benefiting from 'a large audience, Emmanuel Macron has come to cajole figures as divisive as heterogeneous such as Eric Zemmour, Jean-Marie Bigard, Didier Raoult and even Philippe de Villiers. Without going back to the fact that these characters have nothing else in common other than their taste for denouncing the political, economic, media and medical elites, presidential anxiety is likely to be more of a staging than a real fear, so much the president has nothing to lose but rather everything to gain from the rising popularity of such figures.

Populist personalities on the rise

It must be conceded that the thesis of the emergence of a personality making it possible to aggregate popular anger is attractive. First of all, as CEVIPOF data show, anger is evident among the population and increased during the coronavirus crisis, the percentage of citizens declaring themselves very angry increased from 40 to 50% between the beginning and the peak of the health crisis. We must be aware that the current distrust has reached such a level, that a majority of French people do not even trust something as fundamental and difficult to falsify in a rule of law as the number of people who died during the epidemic, giving rise to the proliferation of false information in which opportunisms are engulfed.

However, the whole paradox lies in the fact that this anger seems to be able to be expressed only imperfectly in opposition political parties. Even if certain political movements present themselves as anti-system, the fact of competing within the classical political institutions poses a risk to them of being assimilated to the governing parties which they are nevertheless supposed to fight. The rejection of political parties is indeed global and makes only a weak distinction between traditional parties and populist alternatives. The RN remains the party most rejected by a large majority of French people today.

The combination of this anger and the desire to express oneself outside of political parties could thus be the ideal catalyst - and apparently so feared - for the emergence of an anti-system movement, whose social networks would be the iron of launch. It is a similar situation which had been at the origin of the movement of the yellow vests in France, and the appearance of party-movements such as the M5S in Italy and Podemos in Spain, now occupying prime positions in political life of these countries.

An already saturated populist space

However, the French situation and the state of the political forces is largely different from Italy and Spain after 2008. In France, the political offer at the present time already presents a plethora of movements and representatives "anti -system ", so that the space dedicated to them already appears saturated. Between the populism of the left embodied by the rebellious France of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the populism of the radical right of the National Rally and more minor political representatives like Jean Lassalle who highlight their proximity to the "people", as well as a cohort small candidates who bloom in the presidential elections before falling almost immediately into oblivion, voters wishing to reject the classic political parties do not lack opportunities when choosing their ballot.

It will therefore be difficult for a populist alternative to succeed in finding its place when actors who have been established for a long time on this new dimension of partisan competition are already fulfilling, in their own way, a tribunitian function. This is all the more true since the discourse which combines the triptych "anti-system - anti-elites - preference for popular sovereignty" meets an important echo in the electorate only if it is backed by a more dense ideology ( for example when he finds himself married to economic liberalism, egalitarianism, nativism, etc.), capable of providing a more articulated political program than mere clearance. In other words, parties and candidates who mobilize a populist repertoire but who forget to have economic proposals or to propose societal changes generally do not succeed in distinguishing themselves enough to achieve substantial electoral successes.

On the other hand, if the economic crisis deepens and difficulties accumulate, this new deal will not automatically benefit the most radical platforms. We saw it during the Great Recession crisis: voters first turned to government parties located in the opposition and which enjoyed managerial credibility - a crucial element when the country is in the grips strong social and economic tensions - rather than trusting the challengers who had never exercised national power.

A paying strategy?

Playing on the fear of a new populist candidacy, even more anti-system than the populist parties themselves, which in fact encourages it more than it warns it, is a clever move on the part of 'Emmanuel Macron, provided it is voluntary.

Faithful to the old adage of "divide and rule" , this strategy can lead to an increase in the number of contested political offers which would ultimately benefit the tenant of the Élysée Palace. In a majority system with two rounds such as the one we know today under the Fifth Republic, the danger represented by three opposition forces each accumulating 10% of the votes is much less than that represented by a movement at 30% likely to immediately qualify for the second round. In this perspective, Emmanuel Macron would derive significant benefit from a “pure juice” populist candidacy which would bite both on the lands of the National Rally as well as rebellious France, electorates anyway already lost. If such an outcome were to materialize, the President could even hope to pass in front of the RN candidate, provided that a force from the former government parties does not succeed in competing with the President.

Read also: Jean-Marie Bigard shows interest in a candidacy for the presidential election in 2022

Then, the fact of exchanging with these contested and dissenting personalities largely resembles a kiss of the leper: by legitimizing the existence and the importance of these political currents and by giving them an even more important part of visibility, Emmanuel Macron assimilates them in a certain way to the system and by the same token removes their most destructive potential.

Finally, this strategy would allow Emmanuel Macron to embody one of the last roles he is still able to hold, that of the rampart in the face of extremes. In the same measure as in 2017, many voices had been cast on his name above all to block Marine Le Pen, the choice of the candidate for La République en Marche could appear as that of reason in the face of a multiplication of populist candidacies deemed too adventurous in times of crisis. It is also a safe bet that the presence of a new political figure at a high level in the polls would be in itself such an event that it would put in the background the assessment of Emmanuel Macron, who, given the circumstances, with little chance of being favorable to the outgoing president.