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Corona pandemic unsafe without vaccination: Virologist Drosten explains how it could work

2020-05-28T17:11:22.711Z


Virologist Christian Drosten believes that a second wave of corona can be averted if Germany focuses on superspreading events.


Virologist Christian Drosten believes that a second wave of corona can be averted if Germany focuses on superspreading events.

  • In Corona * -Crisis is Christian Drosten become famous.
  • The Berlin Charité virologist advises Chancellor Angela Merkel, among others .
  • Christian Drosten * and health politician  Karl Lauterbach ( SPD ) report death threats.

+++ 18.05 PM: A violent second corona wave could be avoided according to the virologist Christian Drosten . He is slowly believing that there is a chance of getting into autumn and winter without vaccination , "meaning: without a deadly new second wave," said the scientist from the Berlin Charité on Thursday (May 28, 2020) in the NDR podcast . For this, it is necessary to readjust the current measures. According to the Japanese model, one should aim strongly at the early detection of so-called superspreading events : cases in which an infected person infects an above-average number of other people with corona .

Contact persons should then be regarded as infected and isolated without prior diagnosis in order to prevent further infections. For example, if a teacher shows a corona infection , look at which classes he taught last - these students would have to stay at home for a week or two, but you don't have to close the whole school, says Christian Drosten . Japan's infection curve "crawls" downwards, but the strategy was not communicated aggressively there for a long time.

The Virologist Christian Drosten stressed many of the currently already in force in Germany prevented measures possible Superspreading events. It is now assumed that the majority of people infected with corona infect very few or no other people.

Disputes among virologists: Drosten defends himself against Kekulé

Update from Thursday, May 28, 2020, 9:05 a.m .: In the dispute over the study, which deals with the infection of children with the novel corona virus, the virologist Christian Drosten has defended himself against the allegations of his colleague Alexander Kekulé . Drosten described the statements made by Kekulé in the “Tagesspiegel” as “tendentious” because Kekulé did not know the data used in the study and therefore cited it incorrectly. For his part, Kekulé criticized the fact that the Drosten study had no scientific basis. 

Virologist Drosten explains how, despite Corona, we can almost return to normal in summer

Update from Wednesday, May 27th, 2020, 12.54pm: Can (or may) Germany return to normality in the summer, despite the  Corona crisis ? Virologist Christian Drosten actually thinks this is feasible - even without vaccination

Most recently, Thuringia's Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow (left) caused a sensation. His plan for June: lift the general  corona restrictions in Thuringia. The politician received a lot of criticism for this, including from within his own ranks. 

Drosten also believes that it is possible that people will not feel the Corona pandemic too much in their everyday life in summer . "That is perhaps the most important thing we are discussing here today," emphasized the virologist in the NDR podcast. 

Virologist Christian Drosten explains: This is how we get the corona crisis under control in summer - even without vaccination

Moreover, there is hope that “this now lopsided distribution of the infection frequency, which is becoming known, may have such a learning effect that one invests particularly in certain risk groups among the population with regard to the persecution and isolation of contact patients. If you realize that maybe 20 percent of those infected infect 80 percent of the secondary cases, then you only have to intervene particularly in this area ”.  

The "picture" assumes Christian Drosten's "questionable methods" in a study. The criticism ignores the actual topic, says the virologist in our podcast "Coronavirus Update". https://t.co/ILaRCzwC21 pic.twitter.com/S5cc4AzeoH

- NDR Info (@NDRinfo) May 26, 2020

So you have to "invest in these risk areas". Because then it would be "much easier to get the whole epidemic under control - even without vaccination ." 

Corona: Christian Drosten and Karl Lauterbach (SPD) receive death threats 

Update from Tuesday, May 26, 2020, 6:50 p.m .:  Virologist Christian Drosten and health politician Karl Lauterbach ( SPD ) have received threat packages. Lauterbach shared a post on Twitter that showed a photo of a package sent to him. The photo also shows a container on which the supposedly positive result of a corona test is noted. "Drink this, then you will become immune," wrote the unknown sender.

Karl Lauterbach writes: “Death threats to insults of all kinds, some of us have to put up with a lot. Therefore, everyone with a remaining stock of character should stop the hate speech online against virologists, epidemiologists or politicians. It animates people who are unpredictable. Think of our families. ” Christian Drosten then shared the post and commented that he had received the same package.

I got the same package today. https://t.co/JBGQTKPkrh

- Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) May 26, 2020

Karl Lauterbach referred again to Drosten's retweet. "Dear Christian Drosten, it is sad that there are agitators who are responsible for this. But the overwhelming majority of the population appreciate your work. Started with me ”.

Virologist Christian Drosten warns: easing in corona crisis like "dancing with a tiger"

Update from May 15, 2020, 2:59 p.m .: Virologists Christian Drosten describes the easing in Germany in times of the corona crisis as "dancing with a tiger". In the NDR podcast, he emphasized that the task now was to find out step by step where you can loosen the leash of the animal without it falling over you. 

In terms of easing , this means, for example, that one has to observe how the return of the first grades to school will have an impact in a month. If there were no negative developments, one could possibly readjust. Drosten also stated that there is a “golden middle ground” when it comes to balancing health protection and economic interests. He refers to a study published on Wednesday by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research.

Virologist Christian Drosten complains about conspiracy theories in the corona crisis

Update from May 13, 2020, 7.35 a.m .:  The Berlin virologist Christian Drosten is sharply criticizing incorrect information about the corona pandemic on the Internet. The Charité scientist said on Tuesday in the NDR podcast that videos were circulating on social media, for example, millions of videos viewed that were "full of nonsense" and "false claims". In some cases, doctors and professors are there "who are giving some nonsense to the world" without ever having worked on the topics. Drosten didn't mention names . In addition, there would be "real conspiracy theorists ". The virologist said he got an echo back in the form of accusations, questions, and ideas that people developed based on conspiracy theories

The virologist Drosten emphasized that he is currently in public because coronaviruses are his absolute specialty. He would not comment on the scope of other topics. What he hears, in part from "apparent experts" whose expertise lies in other areas, often lacks any basis, said the virologist. This will also strengthen "really dangerous conspiracy theorists" with a political agenda. Drosten criticized that as "irresponsible".

Virologist Christian Drosten sees Germany in a “good situation”, but is also worried

Update from May 7th, 2020, 5:36 pm:  The Berlin virologist Christian Drosten was satisfied with the German situation in the corona pandemic , but is also concerned about the future. “We are in a uniquely good situation here in Germany right now. We did a lot, ”said the Charité scientist on Thursday in the NDR podcast. He could agree with many of the current political decisions, even if he would have liked a little more containment before the easing from a scientific point of view . "I don't think it's as bad as we do in Germany ."

Christian Drosten , however, looks towards autumn and winter with concern: he wonders what happens if one should come over the summer very lightly, but still have no specific medication available until autumn: “Then we can just go into one Winter wave is coming and I'm already worried about it, ”said the virologist . This also applies to the corona spread in the global south, for example in countries like India. "The view of the USA is also not optimistic for me," emphasized Drosten .

Virologist Christian Drosten warns: "School openings remain risky"

Update from 07.05.2020, 10.56 a.m .: Virologist Christian Drosten still considers school openings in times of Corona to be risky. In his podcast at NDR, he warns against rash interpretations. Studies showing that children are less likely to contract the coronavirus than adults are so far only indications, but have not yet been scientifically evaluated. 

Science is currently under great political pressure to provide data. Regarding school openings, Drosten would recommend opening primary schools and daycare centers first, according to his “gut feeling for data” . However, he could also understand that they now wanted to take the Abitur exams and other final exams.

Virologist Christian Drosten: Children are probably just as contagious as adults

Update from April 30th, 2020, 2.17pm:  How contagious are children in the coronavirus pandemic ? A study by virologist Christian Drosten suggests that children are probably as contagious as adults. Researchers at the Berlin Charité found no difference in viral load between different age groups in Germany.

As a "counterpart" to his own study, Drosten now shared on Twitter an article by "Science" magazine about a study by international researchers who came to a different conclusion. The article states that children between 0 and 14 years of age are less susceptible to infection with the Sars CoV-2 virus than people between 15 and 64 years of age. Its particularly vulnerable in the ratio of adults over 65 years.

Superb new study: Risk of infection upon exposure in children may be about 1/3 that of adults (sorry for the simplification). Important counterpart to yesterday's viral load data (https://t.co/XfpT7Iu3ym)https://t.co/UkOWtEHiJE

- Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) April 30, 2020

According to this study, the risk of infection for children from exposure to the coronavirus could be about a third of the risk for adults, Drosten writes - and apologizes for the “simplification” of the study result.

Virologist Christian Drosten: Children are probably just as contagious as adults

Update from April 30th, 2020, 1:50 pm:  Virologist Christian Drosten and his colleagues at the Berlin Charité have presented a study on the role of children in the coronavirus pandemic . The most important finding: According to an analysis in Germany, children are probably just as contagious as adults. 

The number of viruses that can be detected in the respiratory tract does not differ in different age groups, researchers around virologist Christian Drosten report in the previously published study, which has not yet been tested by independent experts. 

The scientists' conclusion: Christian Drosten and his colleagues have warned of the unrestricted opening of schools and kindergartens in Germany based on their results .

Christian Drosten warns of unrestricted opening of schools

The measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic have had an effect in many countries, the researchers write. With the relaxation of contact restrictions, there is also increasing discussion about the extent to which the closure of schools and kindergartens has contributed to this success - and how reopening could affect the spread of the virus. 

So far it is unclear to what extent children pass the virus on to others. It is difficult to investigate this question, precisely because the schools were closed early and because the virus was passed on mainly by adult travelers, especially in the initial phase of the epidemic.

Viral loads by PCR as seen in our laboratories. No significant difference between children and adults. Age categories: Kindergarten (KG), Grade school (GS), Highschool (HS), etc. with age ranges and (counts). https://t.co/xunzyHEi47 pic.twitter.com/je73hsKrZb

- Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) April 29, 2020

The team led by virologist Christian Drosten had now determined the amount of Sars-CoV-2 viruses in samples from 3712 infected people who were examined in a Berlin test center between January and April 26 . They found no difference in viral load between different age groups. When assessing the risk of infection in schools and kindergartens, the same assumptions that apply to adults should be used, the researchers write.

Drosten contradicts lockdown critics: "Just look at what is happening here"

Update from April 29th, 2020, 1:54 pm: Hardly anyone is as popular in Germany these days as virologist Christian Drosten . However, his warnings about easing of the corona measures in Germany are not well received everywhere. Drosten had even reported received death threats to the English "Guardian". 

"Half-empty intensive care units" in German hospitals are a good sign. People would be tested early and the epidemic stopped. But it is precisely for this reason that many people see measures such as the obligation to wear a mask or a ban on contact as excessive or even pointless. "Now comes what I call the 'prevention paradox'," Drosten told the British newspaper. "People say we overreacted."

Virologist Christian Drosten on criticism of Corona measures: "Just look at what is happening here"

Drosten sees it differently: “They don't understand why their shops have to close. You only look at what is happening here - not at the situation in other countries, such as New York or Spain. ” 

Drosten receives support from sociologist Armin Nassehi, among others. In an interview with “Deutschlandfunk” he explains how difficult it is to make correct decisions and at the same time to gain understanding among the population. 

Today at @DLF https://t.co/AFCaIx29bH

- Armin Nassehi (@ArminNassehi) April 22, 2020

He sees the problem with the corona measures elsewhere: “You cannot see the damage that has not occurred. And we may face that again . "

Virologist Christian Drosten on easing the corona measures: "Lockdown could threaten again"

Update from April 28th, 2020, 11.45 am: After his interview with the English "Guardian", the German top virologist Christian Drosten warned ORF against further easing in the wake of the corona crisis . The number of infections would rise again slightly. This is "possibly in connection with the Easter weekend, where maybe even after blocking contacts, some people have not taken it so strictly." 

That will bring a lot of uncertainty for the coming weeks. After all, the easing of the ban on contacts after Easter does not yet play a role in the current number of cases. Therefore, Drosten warns of effects that were not intended by politics. Is there now a second wave in Germany ? "Unfortunately, we have to expect something like that now." 

Christian Drosten warns of corona crisis: Lockdown could threaten again

However, Drosten also emphasizes that he is well aware of the effects of the corona measures on the economy. But he spoke as a scientist. 

My current view of things in an excellently researched interview with @ArminWolf from #ORF. I speak as a virologist, not as a private individual. No responsibility for business and politics. https://t.co/gt1Iv7t9xp

- Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) April 25, 2020

As the virologist explains, summer could help fight the corona pandemic . Sun exposure, dryness, people outdoors: all of this could lead to fewer infections. However, this would also create less immunity for the winter. " Then the lockdown could threaten again ", warns Drosten at ORF.

Virologist Christian Drosten praises Angela Merkel in corona crisis

Update from April 27th, 2020, 8:15 pm:  In his interview with the British "Guardian", virologist Christian Drosten also talks about Chancellor Angela Merkel and her role in the corona crisis . The CDU politician is “extremely well informed,” praises the virologist. It helps that she is a scientist and can handle numbers. But the most important role is played by Merkel's thoughtful and calming character, says Drosten. 

First report on April 27, 2020, 5:30 p.m .: Berlin - He is a sought-after man - and is now being insulted and threatened: According to his own statements, the virologist Christian Drosten , who is much in the media in the Corona crisis , is threatened with death. For many Germans, he is the bad guy who cripples the economy, said the scientist from the Berlin Charité in an interview with the British newspaper "Guardian". 

Christian #Drosten in @guardian pic.twitter.com/quRcVnsAkL

- Özlem Topçu (@OezlemTopcu) April 26, 2020

Corona expert Drosten: "For many I'm the bad guy"

Drosten said he would forward the threats to the police. However, at night he was kept awake by the emails from parents telling him about their concerns about the future. 

In an interview with the British daily, Drosten also describes his thoughts as to why people react to him in the Corona crisis . “People in Germany see that their hospitals are not overrun and they don't understand why the shops have to stay closed. They just look at their situation, not New York or Spain. "

Christian Drosten: Virologist complains about threats in corona crisis

The corona virus expert reported some time ago in his NDR podcast that he received hate messages. In the interview, he speaks of a “prevention paradox” in Germany: people see that hospitals can cope with the situation and therefore have no understanding of the business closings. The situation in regions heavily affected by Sars-CoV-2 such as New York or Spain is missing. 

From Christian Drosten's point of view, it is precisely the measures taken early that have prevented worse things in this country. He recently warned of setbacks in the fight against the new virus if the pathogen is handled too carelessly: a second, worse wave of infection threatens.

sbh / dpa

Chemist Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim (maiLab) checks the virologists in the corona crisis . That is their opinion on Hendrick Streeck, Christian Drosten and Alexander Kekulé.

In the corona crisis, Bavaria's highest administrative court declared the ban on selling large businesses unconstitutional. Markus Söder reacts. The news ticker.

The medical president Montgomery also demands FFP2 protective masks for citizens. He is also skeptical of makeshift masks.

* fr.de is part of the nationwide Ippen editorial network

Rubric list picture: © picture alliance / dpa

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2020-05-28

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