- Click to share on Facebook (Opens in a new window)
- Click to share on Twitter (Opens in a new window)
- Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in a new window)
- Click to email a friend (Opens in a new window)
H1N1 vs. covid-19: What was learned with the first outbreak? 1:31
(CNN) - The coronavirus will emerge again when summer ends; infectious disease experts are almost certain of that. But they don't know how severe that revival will be.
The World Health Organization offered a grim hypothesis about what the next few months of coronavirus might look like. While we are still experiencing the first wave of the pandemic, and cases continue to rise, infections could suddenly and significantly increase "at any time."
"We can have a second peak this way," said Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program on Monday.
A second peak would not develop as well or gradually as a wave. A new spike would mean a sudden increase in cases, which could overload health care systems again and possibly cause more deaths. The second peak could be worse than the first.
Seeing that rapid increase in cases in the fall depends on what we do now.
LOOK : Fear in the USA for the possibility of a second outbreak of covid-19
What a second peak might look like
In a second peak scenario, coronavirus cases would rise sharply and rapidly to a new maximum, probably after a period when the infection rate remained fairly stable.
In a second wave, infections can develop more gradually and impact different regions of the world at different times.
But in a second peak scenario and one in which we "flatten the curve," the same number of people could become infected. It is the moment that counts.
A second spike would mean that many more people are infected with coronaviruses at the same time and during the flu season, which would overload healthcare systems.
And when hospitals and healthcare workers are overwhelmed, there is a greater chance of preventable deaths, said Dr. Gabe Kelen, director of the department of emergency medicine at Johns Hopkins University.
"The only real reason to try to cushion these spikes is to prevent preventable deaths, so that the health care system can care for all who need it and give them the best possible chance for a healthy outcome," Kelen, who specializes in emerging infections, he told CNN.
That's why so much has been done to flatten the curve. The more stable the infection rate, the more manageable it is to treat the sick.
Why is it dangerous
As Kelen said, a spike would see a huge jump in preventable deaths, and not just in covid-19 patients.
People with diseases like cancer and diabetes who regularly depend on hospitals for treatment may delay their medical care, which could endanger their health. And if hospitals are overwhelmed by coronavirus patients, facilities may have less room for emergency patients who are suddenly injured or ill. And more people can die unnecessarily.
Another plus for the virus: It is likely to re-emerge during the flu season, during fall and winter in the northern hemisphere. And with a group of respiratory viruses circulating at the same time, the odds that you will end up infected with one of them are increasingly likely, Kelen said.
In the USA In the U.S., there were 410,000 to 740,000 flu hospitalizations during the 2019-2020 flu season, which ran from October to April, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. USA (CDC). That's a fairly long period of increased disease activity, and with hundreds of thousands of patients already filling the hospital rooms, there is less room for covid-19 patients.
This New York funeral home was overwhelmed in April with the deaths from the first wave of the disease.
Flu mortality is low: Assuming 56 million people became infected with the flu this season and 62,000 of them died, the death rate remains 0.1%. In the USA In the US, where more than 1,680,000 people have been infected with coronavirus and nearly 100,000 have died, the death rate is closer to 5.9%.
"From a healthcare point of view, flu season is often a very difficult time because there are so many sick people," Kelen said. "Flu season ahead of covid-19, it will be a real challenge."
The coronavirus also resembles the flu and other seasonal respiratory viruses in its initial symptoms. Similar symptoms can delay accurate diagnosis or treatment, said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor in the infectious diseases division at Vanderbilt University and a long-time adviser to the CDC.
"Covid-19 is too contagious," said Schaffner. "We anticipate that this fall will be a great fight with the flu and also with covid."
READ : Is it allergy, flu or coronavirus? How do you know the difference?
When will it happen and how serious will it be?
Both depend on how quickly we relieve coronavirus restrictions.
A second spike is likely to occur during fall or late winter to coincide with the flu season.
But if states go out of pandemic mode now, reopening on a large scale and reverting largely to pre-coronavirus life, the increase in cases could occur as early as late June. The United States is not ready for a revival so soon, Kelen said.
"It would be unmanageable," he said.
Massive reopens could also affect your time and severity. Many large universities and school districts plan to reopen in the fall and organize classes on campus, which could trigger the broadcast again. Businesses will probably not close again as they did in March and April, Kelen said, so with more people out, the infection rate could increase.
Business reopening: How to protect ourselves? 0:38Why it is inevitable, and what we can do to cushion it
As Kelen said, until there is a vaccine, the same number of people will become infected regardless of whether people stop confining themselves. Coronavirus cases will regrow.
It is just a matter of letting the disease "burn rapidly in society" for a few months or prolonging the time it takes for the coronavirus to spread, he said. The last scenario generates some time for the development of vaccines and stagger the number of patients that hospitals see so that they do not become overloaded.
"It looks like we're in a locked room wanting to get out," said Schaffner. “We hope that the door to that locked room is a vaccine. But in the meantime, we cannot be complacent. "
LOOK : Confinement does serve to combat covid-19, study finds
We can count on a vaccine to be ready in the fall: the flu shot for the 2020-2021 flu season. It is more important than usual to get vaccinated this year, Kelen and Schaffner said. If more people are protected against the flu, they will be protected against at least one serious respiratory virus, which could save them a trip to the hospital.
"The vaccine is not perfect, but it can still prevent many infections and make other infections less severe," said Schaffner.
We know what we are facing when autumn comes. Both doctors said companies are unlikely to close again en masse as they did in the spring, and that more communal places such as schools and houses of worship will reopen. That, along with the flu season, could facilitate the circulation of the coronavirus in communities.
That makes standard mitigation efforts - staying home as much as possible, wearing a mask in public and staying at least two meters away - the most important thing, Schaffner and Kelen said.
CNN's Amanda Watts contributed to this report.
Pandemic