Eduardo Paladini
05/31/2020 - 12:28
- Clarín.com
- Politics
It is like when it started. Alberto Fernández today has a positive image similar to the one he brought back in early March, when the coronavirus pandemic arrived in the country. But that tie occurs after four consecutive falls . This is shown by a national survey to which Clarín agreed and which reflects another drop in the President's assessment. Consolation: you are not alone. Cristina Kirchner also got a little worse.
The study is from Synopsis , a consultancy created in 2015, which makes measurements for politics and also for the private world. During the quarantine, he has been presenting biweekly studies that allow an interesting comparison. His latest work includes a survey of 1,062 cases online, between May 21 and 25 in the main cities of the country, with a margin of error of +/- 3%.
Alberto Fernández's weighting journey has three chapters.
1) After the August PASO, in which he scored more than 15 points for Mauricio Macri, his positive image ranged between 42% and 44% , with a negative of "thirty-odd".
2) At the beginning of March, the President began to rise and touched (always according to Synopsis numbers) at the end of that month, a peak of 59.1% positive and a floor of 19.8% negative. This gave him a differential of 39.3 points in his favor. Your best moment.
3) With the arrival of April a moderate but steady decline began, which already registers the fourth consecutive drop, to combine at the end of May + 48.1% and - 31% . The balance is still positive, but lower: 17.1 points.
The image of Alberto Fernández
National survey of 1,062 cases. May 2020. In%
Tap to explore the data
Source: SYNOPSIS Infographic: Clarín
Why does the image of the President fall? There does not seem to be a single answer. At the beginning of April, there was an episode that marked a break and it was that scandalous and dangerous payment for thousands of retirees, who queued in the open to collect their assets in person. It was the first but not the last event that showed management flaws and ended with the then ANSES head Alejandro Vanoli ejected from his position.
But also, in parallel, from the ruling party K began to promote measures that broke a certain hegemony in supporting Fernández. The most extreme was the release of prisoners to protect them from possible contagion. This generated the loudest cacerolazos that were heard against the Government in more than two and a half months of health crisis.
And the third factor, of course, is the prolongation of the isolation. With a double effect : the deepening of the economic debacle and the social satiety due to the restrictions. This point - plus the extreme proposals K - could have come together to take from the President an unprecedented asset that he had achieved: the endorsement of non-official voters (basically Together for Change) to his figure.
Thus, Fernández is returning to his original state, which allows him, in any case, to remain in the vast majority of polls the best-weighted politician in the country . But with a less heterogeneous base and sustained, basically, by the unconditional endorsement of the followers of the Front of All.
This is clearly seen in the last Synopsis study, where it is noted how the crack was reopening : in the case of the President's image, it adds 82.2% positive (67.4% "very good" and 13 , 8% of "good") among K voters and just 13 (3.4% of "very good" and 9.6% of "good") among JxC voters.
Lucas Romero, political scientist and director of the consultancy, also warns that the population was losing fear of Covid 19. And he summarizes the phenomenon: "If I am less afraid, I am worse financially and if I listen to the political fight on top of it, I have reasons to relocate to my previous political position and begin to criticize the government. This is what is leaving Alberto Fernández without part of the support gained at the beginning of the crisis by opposition voters. "
And Cristina?
The evolution of the image of the vice president for the same period (from the post STEP until now) was different. And worse . According to the consultant's figures, Cristina had almost the same positive image in September (44.5%) as negative (45.2%). Now, red clearly prevails: + 29.7% against - 58.1%, negative differential of 28.4 points.
The image of Cristina Kirchner
National survey of 1,062 cases. May 2020. In%
Tap to explore the data
Source: SYNOPSIS Infographic: Clarín
Within Cristina's numbers, the most salient is the "very bad" rating, which reaches 51 points. It is a rejection that is very difficult to reverse and that manifests itself in other surveys under another format: "I would never vote for it." The negativity of the vice is completed with 7.2% of "bad" image.
This questioning of his figure would also explain why when the vice- president raises her profile (and people perceive that her influence increases) the weight of the President falls .