Ignacio Zuleta
05/31/2020 - 19:35
- Clarín.com
- Politics
Fear of the street corners the dome
On the planet of virtuality, any zoncera casts a shadow on the earth. This encapsulation of life at the limits of the telephone gives the word a new meaning, and the hypotheses of thinkers such as John L. Austin, author of the classic "How to Do Things with Words" come true. With Words ", bible of the current of linguistic pragmatics). Today politicians do things with words , because they have no other choice. The preparation of the announcements of the next weekend about the extension of the quarantine are already an obsession of the leaders who administer this crisis in the governments of the Nation and CABA, who parliament according to their position in the zoological scale.
The pressure comes from the street, because there are signs that patience is running out and the State's capacity to "enforce" is very limited to enforce the isolation slogans. It only achieves this with regulated activities such as trade and car traffic, since it cannot manage effectively or in normal times. Nor can it intervene much in the corruption associated with these controls, which are the August for venal inspectors. Politicians believe that what is on television is the only reality , and that their lives depend on the results of the polls. This makes them more anxious and they try to get the ads to ease the pressure.
Thursday is the turn for a meeting at the highest level between Alberto Fernández and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who are going to crown, with pardon the word, what their ambassadors have negotiated during these hours, who are talking about levels of responsibility. The ministers Ginés and Quirós talk about health, Santiago Cafiero and Felipe Miguel speak as heads of the Cabinet, and Gustavo Beliz does it with Fernando Straface - advisers in global matters. They have to find a way back to the dilemma that the Argentine society complied with the quarantine with a very effective docility, but it is preparing to get rid of it , because it has run out of subsidy capacity.
Of what is not known
"We had to design the plane while we were flying it," Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, often repeats. This phrase expresses what the authorities around the world feel , who have no answer when asked how the hand comes. They do not know what will happen, nor do they know why it happened or what needs to be done. "I wish we could safely apply recipes from other places," they say by now. The strategies are based on global indications, which are repeated throughout the world, and on forecasts of low efficacy . None of those who promised cataclysms was fulfilled, here or in other countries. Perhaps because the isolation and chinstrap tactic have worked, and that was enough.
The future that worries is no longer that of the plague but that of the economy, due to falling expectations . Nobody lights a headlight that illuminates forward and that adds more brightness to the uncertainty. The Executive reacts like authoritarian governments: discipline rather than understanding. It turns the plot of the virus fight into a fact of social control, and fails to convey confidence in people and their future. For the Government, they are all potential cheats and celebrate the emergence of a new class in the entertainment world: the vigilante mobile man , who betrays cases of non-compliance with the rules. Instead of asking not to go out because you can catch it, send not to go out because you can catch it. There is a universe of meaning between one and the other attitude towards the same problem. So there are neighbors who denounce neighbors for being doctors or nurses. The Government encourages them, when the President himself gives his opinion on Susana Giménez's eastern itinerary.
Building the enemy: the anti-quarantine party
Uncertainty encourages other pre-existing uncertainties, those of politics and the economy. It is political physics that the Government wants to anchor its agenda in this fight in which, as in any war, the public huddles behind Commander Alberto (according to Mario Negri ). Alberto has resigned himself to the fact that the situation has eaten the future, and any strategy he could have dreamed of for the future. It is understandable that he was tempted and wanted to take advantage of the emergency to use it to remedy his weaknesses: to advance in the judicial consolidation of veterans-Peronism, to realign the troops themselves in the leadership fight, to syndicate an opposition that compromises the operation of Congress , and push him to accept the virtuality that is an amputation.
It is expected that he spoke before anyone else about the anti-quarantine party . It is what you need to save yourself, more perhaps than a vaccine. It is not the best scenario for a Peronist government, a formation that inspires its acts in Peronist maxims like the one that says, outrageously, that man is good, but if he is watched, he is better. He orders to cut other people's behavior, instead of summoning it to assume responsibility for healing. Intercept instead of helping. He is more interested in health than freedom , and that is why he has his roots in a very clear tradition. Peronism watches, does not care, and is the same one that 30 years ago refused to join the Conadep, which Cromañón and Once came up with. It saves us that Argentina is a country with a strong civil society, which is above the weakness of its rulers. He assumes the slogans with docility when he understands that they can benefit the whole. She is also willing to change behavior when she thinks they may be a limit to her freedom and her pocket.
The plague of uncertainty attacks for years
The plague is universal, but it differs in the way of facing it. In Argentina, a country that is just over half a thousand victims, it is discussed how to close. In America, where they beat all planetary records, they discuss how to open. The difference is not in the soundness of the government systems, because Argentina and the US they are islands in an anarchized world. It is in the confidence in the future of those who govern . In U.S.A. the debate is how smart an opening can be that does not exacerbate the tragedy. Here mistrust dominates, so the debate is how smart the State can be in closing, limiting, cornering. Not the virus, only, but its victims. Axel Kicillof, who speaks without a subconscious mind - unlike Alberto, who makes statements with excessive talkativeness - pointed to the pre-existing pandemic, which is uncertainty.
Uncertainty is the plague that has paralyzed the Creole economy for years . Investments that did not come, feared that Mauricio Macri's reforms would be reversed by his opponents in a change of government. In 2017, the electoral result showed that Cristina Kirchner did not sink Peronism, and that Christianist Peronism had made better elections than "collabo" Peronism, which negotiated with Macri represented by Miguel Pichetto in the Senate, and Sergio's dissident blocs Massa and Pablo Kosiner in Deputies. That blew up the system, despite Cambiemos' victory. It happened on December 28 of that year, two months after that year's elections and that was when Olivos finished turning Sturzenegger's policy at Central in the press conference of Marcos Peña, Nicolás Dujovne and Toto Caputo against the goals of inflation. "Those goals are technically unfulfilled" said Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
Uncertainty won. Parallel lives. The same thing happened to Cristina in 2011 . He won reelection with a mountain of votes (54%), but before the end of the year he triggered the stocks and the nationalization of Repsol's shares in YPF; two signs of Argentina's Albanianization. Uncertainty. He had no reelection and ended that year with an outflow of capital from the system that was another record: USD 21,500 million. Macri surpassed that mark with his own uncertainty, when the public saw that the uncertainty about his government grew, until the STEPS of last year. It escaped USD 22,148 million in 2017, USD 27,213 million in 2018 and USD 26,900 million last year. Kicillof cannot say that the plague brought uncertainty. It was already in the system, and that it has not dissipated is not the sole responsibility of a government. It is from the previous government that did not build the foundations for the political sustainability of the program. It was the government's objective, beyond venturing into macroeconomic experiences with uncertain and indisputable results.
We should change to ensure that what he did could not be reversed by a subsequent government. Peronism has the concurrent responsibility of playing as an anti-system threat, and sacrificing moderate sectors - as was the table of the governors who met until May 2019 with leaders such as Juan Schiaretti, Pichetto, Massa, Juan Manuel Urtubey and Roberto Lavagna . He allowed himself to be won by uncertainty, and preferred to precipitate unity that would allow him to ensure a return to power in the December elections. The journey of trying another path also had the mark of uncertainty.
Prosecutor: the radicals fight back
This devastating virtuality of all activity also discovers discreet, almost secret strips. Just as there is the "deep web", where debates and businesses are trafficked that do not appear on the surface of the web that we all see, there is also a "deep zoom" . They are meetings that do not easily transcend. On Friday, for example, one of the dome of the radical opposition was made, which is important for the debate on the appointment of the Attorney General. The oficialismo promotes Daniel Rafecas , with the support of all the tribes in an unstable commitment. It is the favorite of Alberto Fernández, who prefers it to others who could try to promote extreme Christianity, such as Alejandro Slokar . The difference between the two is that the former does not engage in slippery brands, such as Justicia Justicia.
The opposition holds the key to that designation, which needs 2/3 of the Senate's votes. In that "deep zoom" on Friday, the dome of the three governors ( Rodolfo Suárez, Gerardo Morales, Gustavo Valdés ), the party president Alfredo Cornejo , and the parliamentary leaders Mario Negri and Luis Naidenoff, designed the strategy before the imminence of the processing of the specifications in the Committee on Agreements. They presume that, with the approved opinion, Peronism will go out in search of votes: it needs four for the agreement, in a process of addition and subtraction, because they are 2/3 of those present, a figure that can be reached by removing from the premises to opponents, old tactic. To shield their position, these opponents will attempt a counterattack through the positive route of proposing a reform of the law that regulates the public ministry.
The future belongs to the prosecutors, not the judges
The message to the Government is that, with this law, there are no Rafecas and no Attorney. If they reform the law, we can talk. The initiative brings together the entire opposition arc, including the Civic Coalition. This reform takes away the life character of the position -perhaps 5 years, as some of the already known projects say-, and limits the powers of the attorney to transfer prosecutors and create special prosecutors; and it reduces the discretion to make appointments. The Procurator and his operating regime are more important than any other judicial reform, because with the new accusatory system that is implemented in the country, the judges stop instructing the cases, which are passed on to the prosecutors. A Creole experiment, whose ideological background will have to be broken down at some point.
The minute that the government circulates informally about this judicial reform, talks about the merger of federal courts and other jurisdictions, to open almost fifty new courts, and liquefy what they believe is the power of a handful of magistrates of the CABA. But the new judges will be judges of guarantees with less power than now, and the causes will depend on what the prosecutors do. If the radicals manage to nail the rejection and prevent 2/3 of the votes, they can sit down with the ruling party to also discuss names, with Rafecas in the bulletin, but also others, such as that of the radical Ricardo Gil Lavedra .
The disputed vote of Dr. Camano
In those virtual depths, which are sometimes cavernous, certainties abound. They contradict legends that are repeated in the media, or the sticky tales that arise from the cellars of power. One of them is the fate of Judge Rodolfo Canicoba Corral , whom they have attacked and protected, according to turns of power. These legends place Graciela Camano as arbitrator of the magistrate's fate in the Council of the Magistracy, where there is a tie on whether to judge him or not. A symbolic power maneuver, because this magistrate is close to retirement and there is little chance that Congress will renew his patent. Going through these inner network galleries sheds light on Camano's position, which is far from helping Canicoba. Suffice it to see the minutes of the Council when, in the previous government, Pablo Macrista, Pablo Tonelli, complained about the political protection he received then. Anyone who knows her cannot expect that the meaning of the vote will change now.
The judge's fate depends on the advisers, who must decide whether the debate for the prosecution of Canicoba is once again on the agenda of the Council plenary, which was suspended on Thursday due to a power outage in the San Martín area, where he lives. Camano in social isolation, although not political. The decision will be made this Monday at a Labor Council meeting. It will be clarified if the case returns to the agenda, or is delayed sine die . After all, the one who has a double vote in plenary is the President of the Council, Judge Alberto Lugones, who has supported Canicoba in this plot of spies, rather than magistrates and journalists.
Hyperactivity, as if we were already campaigning
The daily succession of virtual meetings between leaders, exceeds records of calls, which were not seen when politics was in person, except in campaign times . In the week that passed, opposition leaders such as Negri or Pichetto came to gather, each one, more than 10 thousand attendees to their talks by zoom, which multiply when looking at the "likes" marks or the questions they receive from the assistants. The same thing happens in the ruling party, although Peronism feels less obliged to comply with the isolation restrictions that corner the opposition - they kiss, hug, undo their chinstrap, eat roasts in Olivos, in La Plata.
The PJ council in Buenos Aires two weeks ago concentrated almost all of the councilors, something that was never seen. 42 present out of 47. Larva debates, such as the decriminalization of abortion, aroused reactions as strong as those They summon street riots against the quarantine, which the Government believes are bullshit of "trolls" and not spontaneous expressions. On Saturday, a "virtual march" was carried out through various networks. Only on Facebook it gathered 400 thousand participants , who received encouragement from leaders whose anti-abortion position is known, such as Camano, Jorge Enriquez or Diego Mestre. These demonstrations must be recorded, because they escape media coverage, which wears the viewer down with endless counts of plague victims.